GaWx

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All across the MDR SSTs are ~1C cooler than to the N! This if it persists should keep a relative lid on TCs in the tropics themselves this year.

The PDO continues to plunge: The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

A dry gust front (outflow boundary) that showed up well on radar moved SW into this area at midnight. Then at ~12:45AM, a small area of thunderstorms well to the E of the main area moved SW into this area producing only a few rumbles of thunder and light rain, which continues. Oddly enough, after blinking off and on ~20 times, my power finally went out ~1AM despite my not noticing a big gust of wind or any nearby CTG lightning. Edit: Power came back on just before 1:55AM.

It was Solar/NAO. What I found is that the only 6 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs since 1979-80 were all within ~two years of a cycle minimum and that every cycle minimum since the mid 1980s has had either 1 or 2 -NAO winters. 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, 2020-1 Will we get two -NAO winters within the very late 2020s to early 2030s?

Upgraded back up to ham sandwich: Special Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL830 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Special outlook issued to update AL90 formation chances1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):Satellite images indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in association with a small gale-force low-pressure system located about 900 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. This system will likely become a short-lived tropical storm later today before more hostile environmental conditions end its opportunity for development by this evening. The low is forecast to move northeastward at around 15 to 20 mph while remaining over the open central Atlantic. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The BLT is still hanging in there in the new TWO with still a 40% chance thanks to new thunderstorms: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped on the north side of a gale-force low-pressure system located about 700 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable, and further resurgence of the thunderstorm activity could still result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm. By later today, the low is expected to encounter more hostile environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward at around 15 to 20 mph while remaining over the open central Atlantic. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. *Edit 8:10AM: chance raised back to 50% for a TD or TS at 8AM

Down to 40%. So, it has diminished from a ham sandwich to a BLT.

The ham sandwich still has a chance to become a TD through the day but I've got to tell you that it is a real ham: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Satellite images indicate that disorganized showers and thunderstorms are displaced to the east of an area of low pressure located about 600 miles east of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are still marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward around 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Hagen —————- Though sheared, the LLC is pretty tight and may allow this to be upgraded to a TD or even TS Andrea later today.

The ham sandwich may get named: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

This, which has been designated as the first “ham sandwich” storm since 2023, is liable to be declared a TD shortly with a TS not out of the question.

MTD June NOAA PDO is likely at ~~-2.3 and full June could easily be down to ~-2.5.

The highs in the area were 93-95. But that tells only some of the story as the dewpoints/RH made it feel like ~100-102. I had to go into a house whose AC is broken. It was 91 inside and this was at 8PM. I was soaking wet within 5 minutes!

Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again:

This means that the NOAA daily PDO is likely back down to the -2.5 to -3 range.

Regarding wondering if it was going into a big El Niño, what year are you referring to?

We had another popup heavy shower just now. Likely <0.25”. I ended up with only ~0.15”.

An area of pop up thunderstorms, some heavy, is moving in to this area from the SW this evening. Edit: the overnight total turned out to be an impressive ~1.3”. MTD through AM of 6/18: a wet ~6.65”.

Latest 20-60W/10-20N OHC, while much cooler than 2023-4, is still near the very warm 2013-24 avg: But Gulf is warmer than 2023 and not too much cooler than 2024:

Wow! Thanks, I hope you’re right because I want quiet, but that would mean I bust hard with my 139 ACE and 9H/3MH forecast. I have 14 NS. Keep in mind that per RONI that ASO 2014 was warm neutral and 2013 was cold neutral vs 2025’s ASO likely active season favoring weak La Niña.

I sincerely hope you’re right as I want a quiet season for a change. But “anyone that’s been paying attention knows we’re not coming anywhere these numbers”?? Named Storms: 15-19Total Hurricanes: 7-9Major Hurricanes: 2-3ACE Index: 120-150 Based on what are you saying you know we’ll be nowhere close to these mainly only slightly above avg #s? We’re headed toward a weak Niña per RONI, which favors more active than avg and Atlantic temps are near the 1991-2020 avg, not cool.

JB is actually calling for a not as active season as last year with ACE of 120-150, whose midpoint of 135 is only slightly above the ~122 avg of 1991-2020 along with only slightly above avg 7-9 H and near avg 2-3 MH: Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast Named Storms: 15-19 Total Hurricanes: 7-9 Major Hurricanes: 2-3 ACE Index: 120-150

Getting a small but pretty potent pop up now. Probably will be quick unless it spreads out or others follow. Edit: That short popup has been quickly followed by a line of heavy thunderstorms coming in with frequent CTG lightning. That ended up lasting a couple of hours with more filling in after the line. My initial rough estimate for today is 1”+ after yesterday’s ~3”. Interestingly, although yesterday’s was much heavier, I had no rain in the garage from it. However, this evening’s did give me a decent amount in one corner though not too bad. Total rainfall on 6/15: ~1.1”

The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet in the Atlantic basin and near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If there are no TCs by July 13th, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009! Other years with no NS through July 13th since 1995 were 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. I really wish I could say otherwise (I’d love to finally see a weak season), but I still expect an above normal season. The Atlantic tropics, though not nearly as warm as 2023-4, are still plenty warm enough and expected to continue that way. Also, we’re looking at a ~weak La Niña during ASO per RONI. That combo typically correlates to active seasons including for the corridor from the NE Caribbean through Bahamas, FL, SE US, and E Gulf though I’m still hoping it won’t be nearly as bad there as the terrible 2024, which is suggested by the last two monthly Euro seasonal outlooks.

Today had 3 periods of rain: -During the afternoon, a moderate, fairly short thunderstorm with a good bit of nearby CTG lightning but only modest rainfall. -A band of very heavy thunderstorms came through during the evening that lasted longer likely producing 2”+ of rainfall. My street flooded and there was this: 0700 PM FLOOD SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W 06/14/2025 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS SEVERAL FLOODED STREETS ACROSS SAVANNAH: VICTORY DRIVE, HABERSHAM STREET, PRICE STREET, BULL STREET, WATERS AVENUE, HODGSON MEMORIAL DRIVE, EISENHOWER DRIVE, AND DERENNE AVENUE. -Areas of mainly light rain came through a little later. Edit: After looking at Cocorahs, I estimate a total of a whopping ~3” yesterday here! This gets me to a wet ~4.25” for June 1-13. May was also very wet here with 8.7”, more than double the normal.