GaWx

Yeah, I realized you were using 1991-2020 normals. But on that and even on the 2nd chart, it still looks to me like the bulk of the warming at Phil. has been since the late (or maybe mid) 1980s. Imagine cutting the 2nd chart off in 1987. If so, I don’t think any longterm warming trend would show. Instead, it appears to me like the line would be pretty flat. Do you see what I’m seeing?

Don, Am I looking at that graph right? Has virtually all of the warming at Phil been since the late 1980s?

Thanks for your replies! I’m all for open discussion of alternative ideas and that’s why I posted this and others from him. If the alternative idea appears to be plausible, it would probably be supported to an extent. OTOH, if not, it would likely be refuted. Also, I feel it’s important for others to be aware of what’s being spread to so many people (Weather Bell subs in this case) whether plausible or not. Thus, I expect to continue posting Dr. V stuff. In this case, Dr. V’s idea has been refuted several times here. That helps others like myself to be more knowledgeable about the doubtfulness of the plausibility of his idea. Not only that, I learned thanks to bdgwx about OMICS and its fraud. Today, JB posted this as a followup: I'm now going to incorporate this into my (forever) paper which is now in its second draft. The finished product will then be submitted to The International Journal of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources, a peer-reviewed journal that has accepted other papers I've written in the past (in fact, they solicit me on a regular basis for contributions). That paper will then get passed on to Tom Nelson, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and my Congressional Representative, Mike Haridopolis. That will hopefully get the geothermal hypothesis onto a higher plane. The bolded adds even more to my doubts about Dr. V. Why? I hate to bring politics into this, but Zeldin and Haridopolis are far righties, which imho has been the source of a lot of misinfo of all kinds, including CC. I’m saying that as a moderate independent as I’m not a liberal or a Democrat. Also, Thomas Nelson is the producer of “Climate The Movie: The Cold Truth”, which tries to minimize the significance of AGW. @donsutherland1

We’re apparently about to have TS Fernand a few hundred miles SSE of Bermuda. Also, Invest 99L is significantly more active on the 12Z Euro ens as it gets to the W Caribbean in ~a week. If it actually does develop there, watch out!

After light rain earlier this evening, heavier rain has developed here. Edit: Related to the above: FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 757 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, JASPER. * WHEN...UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 756 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, WINDSOR FOREST, WILMINGTON ISLAND, COFFEE BLUFF, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MONTGOMERY. ——————- Edit: FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 958 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025 GAC051-SCC053-230300- /O.EXT.KCHS.FA.Y.0122.000000T0000Z-250823T0300Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHATHAM GA-JASPER SC- 958 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025 ..FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, JASPER. * WHEN...UNTIL 1100 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 958 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN. MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. - ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING. - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, WINDSOR FOREST, WILMINGTON ISLAND, COFFEE BLUFF, SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MONTGOMERY. ———- Edit: I ended up with ~2” (backyard is soaked yet again) bringing me to ~16.65” MTD!!

From Dr. Viterito (via JB), the person who thinks that warmer oceans (and thus GW) has been caused mainly by undersea volcanic activity: I’m putting this out for discussion purposes, not to take sides with him: Arctic Ice Comment from Dr V ..And now we have yet another research nugget that needs to be explored further. This recent article by Matt Vespa points to the fact that Arctic sea ice has not declined since around 2005. So, the Climate Change Narrative Just Took a Broadside. Want to Guess What It Was Over? A deeper dive into the data from Climate Reanalyzer paints a slightly different picture. Specifically, it pinpoints the year when the decline stopped as 2007. Here is their chart: Climate Reanalyzer, University of Maine As a correlate, the Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity (MOSZSA) matches up VERY well. Here is that chart: Clearly, the "trough" in Arctic sea ice extent began the same year (2007) MOSZSA plateaued i.e., 2007!!! Too many things correlate strongly with MOSZSA: global temperatures, global sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice, the AMO Index, oceanic heat content, Western Pacific thermocline depths, Kuroshio intensification, and other responsive geophysical phenomena. More to follow...

The rain is still falling lightly this evening. Though a portion of the W part of the county received ~3”+ (centered on the junction of I-16 and I-95) necessitating a flash flood warning, my amount so far hasn’t added to that much…probably ~0.25” so far. That gets me to an amazing ~14.65” MTD with none of that from a TC! But that’s not the end of it!From KCHS NWS office, a flood watch has been issued for its entire area:SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY PASS THROUGH ALOFT. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING PWATS OF 2.25-2.50" AND WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION WHERE WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, POSSIBLY >3 IN/HR AT TIMES, GIVEN THE RICH, TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CORRIDOR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A REIDSVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-WALTERBORO-MONCKS CORNER LINE WHERE 20CM SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE RUNNING IN THE >98TH PERCENTILE AS OF THE 18 AUGUST ANALYSIS. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES IN PLACE AND THE INTENSE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE POSSIBLE, THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL CORRIDOR WHERE THE EVENING HIGH TIDES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD ENHANCED THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. STORM TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 2-4" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6".

I’ve been getting the first thunderstorm since Sunday (8/17) since ~6:45PM in a band coming eastward that had collided with the sea-breeze front. Rain rates have been mainly moderate but with some heavy. Before this rain, I had already been up to a whopping 14.4” MTD! Light rain is still falling. I’ve gotten ~0.25” today so far. That gives me ~14.65” MTD. It may be ending shortly.

Thanks as I missed those 60s dewpoints at KSAV Mon afternoon. So, I need to retract what I said about no dewpoints below the low 70s since June. Where I live is closer to the coast and thus typically has higher dewpoints, but not that much higher. Thus I just edited my earlier post for this correction. My point was that the bulk of the cool, dry airmasses of earlier August didn't reach down here. That I’m still saying has been the case.

1. Erin will end up with ~33-4 ACE, which you didn’t forecast. Currently, 2024 has sharply risen to 15th of the last 75 years and it will rise several positions from there before Erin winds down, when total ACE should be ~36-38: 2. It does appear quiet ~8/24-9/7 on the ensembles/Euro Weeklies and there could easily be below normal ACE through that period. But even if so and allowing for ~5 added ACE by 9/7, ACE would still be near normal (in the 40s). 3. The Euro Weeklies have then been showing an increase in activity (likely MJO related), especially during 9/15-21: 9/8-14: 10-11 ACE 9/15-21: 13-15 ACE If these verify well, ACE would then be in the 60s. 4. The tendency in recent years, especially during cold ENSO has been for a more active late Sept through Nov. 2024 had its most active period late Sept-mid Oct. If that occurs again, 2025 would end up as another active season.

It would be nice if it would also get down here for a change. We still have had no dewpoints below the lower 70s since June. **8/21/25 Edit for correction: I totally missed that KSAV had hourly dewpoints as low as 62 during the afternoon of August 18th in between the morning and evening/overnight 70s. So, technically, I’m wrong despite my dewpoints often being a few degrees higher due to being closer to the coast than KSAV.

Barry, I agree because that’s me.

Thanks. I just found it. This is what I posted on 5/21/24 and thus this analysis doesn’t include what happened in 2024, a really bad year with it scoring 5G/0E. 2024’s ASO RONI was -0.75: ————————— I just did an analysis of CONUS landfalls for RONI ASO -0.50 to -1.00 vs sub -1.00. E = east coast and G = Gulf coast including FL Keys; if storm landfalled on both as a H, I counted it as 1/2 E and 1/2 G (1995’s Erin and 2022’s Ian) ASO RONI -0.50 to -1.00: every season at least 1 1954: 3 (3E) 1955: 2 (2E) 1964: 4 (2E, 2G) 1970: 1 (1G) 1983: 1 (1G) 1995: 2 (0.5E, 1.5G) 1999: 3 (1E, 2G) 2011: 1 (1E) 2017: 3 (3G) 2021: 2 (2G) AVG: 2.20 (0.95E, 1.25G) ASO RONI sub -1.00: less active avg despite 2020 1973: 0 1975: 1 (1G) 1988: 1 (1G) 1998: 3 (1E, 2G) 2007: 1 (1G) 2010: 0 2016: 2 (1E, 1G) 2020: 6 (1E, 5G) 2022: 2 (1.5E, 0.5G) AVG: 1.78 (0.50E, 1.28G) Analysis of ASO RONI wk vs mod+: -sig. more CONUS H landfalls (100%/70% had 1+/2+) -sig. more E coast landfalls (60%/30% had 1+/2+) -slightly fewer G coast landfalls due to 2020 being active -E being nearly as active as G for wk is relatively high for E -2020 ASO is mod+ per RONI but is only wk per ONI H tracks: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/ RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

I’ll try to find it with a search on “RONI”.

As shown on the image below, one can see how rapidly 2025’s ACE has increased in relation to others since 1951: it’s now 16th highest of the last 75

Today’s Euro Weeklies have the 3rd week in Sept (9/15-21) for the first time and it is as Barry’s image above shows near the 2005-24 ACE avg. Regarding progged ACE in Sept from today’s run: after a well BN 1st week and a moderately BN week 2, week 3 (near normal) is significantly more active and actually has the most ACE of any of the 4 weeks by a good margin starting with the final week of August. This is giving me flashbacks to 2024 as this is at least hinting at a Sept resembling last Sept, which had a much more active 2nd half than first half. I’m guessing that this prog of relative quiet in week 1 transitioning to normal active in week 3 is MJO related. Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts: 8/25-31: 9-10 9/1-7: 5-6 9/8-14: 8-10 9/15-21: 13-15

Chris, Don and I have had discussions about the UHI portion of the warming at Phoenix over the last 30-40+ years due to the tremendous population growth. We agreed that the UHI portion isn’t at all insignificant if I’m recalling this correctly. @donsutherland1

Even if 22-23 is a good analog winter, that’s only one analog, which has little statistical weight on its own.

Thanks. I was going by snowfall because that’s about all many here seem to care about. La Guardia had 33.2” and Kennedy had 30.9”. But good point about the sharp cutoff S of NYC. If I were to throw out 2016-7 due to the sharp cutoff, it would still be 35% of NYC winters with 30”+ vs 39% of all meaning only barely lower.

Based on NYC 30”+ snowfall, a Niña wasn’t a winter killer in: 2020-1, 17-18, 16-17, 10-11, 05-06, 00-01, 95-6, 55-6, 38-9, 33-4, 17-8, 16-7, 03-4, 1893-4, 86-7, 72-3 So, out of 43 La Niña winters including the unofficial 2024-5, 16 of them (37%) had 30”+ of snow at NYC. Edit: Compare 37% to 61 of 156 (39%) of all winters since 1869-70 having had 30”+ there. So, virtually the same %.

To add to the above post: Of the 22 listed years, including the three 2025 is projected to be just ahead of as of August 23rd, only 2007 ended up with a BN total season ACE (averages based on their era). Of the other 21, all ended up the season well AN (based on their era’s average).

NATL ACE has risen to 23.6, which is the 16th highest of the last 75 for the date. Based on the latest NHC prog, ACE would be ~42 as of late Aug 23. If that verifies, 2025 would move up to 9th or 10th of the last 75. It would also move up to ~19th or 20th of the last 175 years (~89th percentile). The only ones higher than 2025 as of Aug 23rd would be these: 2024, 2008, near tie with 2007, 2005, 1995, 1980, 1969, 1955, 1951, 1950, 1933, 1926, 1916, 1899, 1893, 1887, 1886, 1880, and 1871. 2025 would be just ahead of 2004, 1966, and 1915. @mitchnick@snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

NATL ACE has risen to 23.6, which is suddenly the 16th highest of the last 75 for the date. Based on the latest NHC prog, ACE would be ~42 as of late Aug 23. If that verifies, 2025 would move up to 9th or 10th of the last 75. It would also move up to ~19th or 20th of the last 175 years (~89th percentile). The only ones higher than 2025 as of Aug 23rd would be these: 2024, 2008, near tie with 2007, 2005, 1995, 1980, 1969, 1955, 1951, 1950, 1933, 1926, 1916, 1899, 1893, 1887, 1886, 1880, and 1871. 2025 would be just ahead of 2004, 1966, and 1915.

Similar to yesterday earlier in the afternoon, thunderstorms with some heavy rains have just popped up including here along the seabreeze. Rain starting and just heard thunder. Edit: I ended up with ~0.80”, which brings me to ~14.4” Aug 1-17!