Buddy1987

1/-8.4 as of 615. 

7 degrees outside. Wind chill of -4 with winds 30-40. Perfect time to go out, cook a tomahawk, and slam a beer!

Just now, Met1985 said:

No this was the issue the further the front marched towards us the drier the system got but we have seen across the whole country the models have been underperforming with the cold and the moisture across the whole country. 

Key to watch is the convective type nature of showers in central AL as to how they progress when the swing takes place. Those hold together that’s where I’ll be very interested. 

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM brought the flizzard back for most. It shows rain on the precip maps. But that is snow. I think the majority of us are going to enjoy tomorrow morning. Gonna be a rare event here. 

I agree man. Was just looking at the 01z HRRR and it brings a pretty healthy band, at least down this way. Would be nice to wake up surprised. Regardless temps are gonna be wild to see bottom out. 

16 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The latest HRRR is really ramping up the moisture for the mountains especially the snow with the current model run....

Yea now that I look I was a little surprised myself. 01z shows a decently healthy band coming through. 

Now I’m wondering if I’m starting to have radar hallucinations. Did runs have that much moisture to our south and west? @Met1985got me hahahaha

@strongwxncthat Buffalo forecast is unreal! I grew up in CT and my best friend, his father has had season tickets to the Bills game, as he grew up just outside Orchard Park. That is life threatening the conditions that are about to transpire up that way. Incredible forecast with 1-3 ft and winds to 70. WOW! 

Disappointing seeing some of the obs in here. Thought some of us might be ripping for a little. ALL rain and 32.9/32 here. 

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

I know this isnt a local observation, but Denver CO just saw a 37° temp drop in 1 hour...down to 5°!!  I mean damn!  That is just nuts.

Looks like we'll see some 20° drops on Friday across the area.  Thankfully this is short lived.  Nobody wants this for days on end.

My sister lives in Jamestown, CO which is about 40 miles north of Denver. They are down to -3 and heavy snow. Have about 2-3” and counting. Pretty impressive to say the least. 

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM still warmer than other guidance. It is strange to see. 

I was literally just thinking the same thing looking at it. Very odd. Even the GFS is colder. Would be very weird for NAM to not examine the depth of the cad etc.. with its physics built in to handle events like this. 

Anyone happen to have freezing rain amounts from 18z euro? I don’t have access to the products unfortunately. Most 18z models I saw bumped up amounts down this way. 

32/24 down here in SW VA. Happy with any frozen precip at this point. Hoping to see things overperform for everyone. 

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

31.3/9.9 in Fredericksburg. Several degrees colder than forecast. I'm under no illusions that I will get anything out of this, but might be a good sign for the western/northwestern half of this forum. 

Nice spread on the temp to dew point ratio as well! That’s like a 7 degree drop in temp if precip came in right now. 

I feel like looking at the various 12z model runs we shouldn't overlook some of the total freezing rain qpf output. Half of some of those totals would create problems. This go around as well temps have been well below freezing. 

I will not get overly invested.. I will not overly get invested.. I will not overly get invested.. I tell myself this time and time again and I’m a sucker for winter storms and tracking of systems. 

Last couple model runs of the GFS/GGEM/NAM are showing some icing potential for 81 corridor on Thursday with the lead wave. 0Z GFS actually spits out some respectable numbers. 

50 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Now watch the Euro come in with what the GFS was showing.  What a switcheroo that would be. 

My lord it wouldn’t be the first freakin time.. I was thinking the same thing. 

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Did anyone actually think the GFS would win? 

I held out some hope after recent memory had the GFS dethroning EURO last winter. This sucks but what are you gonna do..

What a damn shame 

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it looks more gfs like with the h5 energy over Canada. It rolls it out east and doesn’t just sit there and then rotate .

The PNA concerns me by the end of the run however unless someone corrects me. Much more flat rather than tall like the gfs. There’s so many dang pieces in this setup…

12z Nam is really not all that much different from what I can see at HR63, comparing it to the 6z Gfs. The s/w is a little more aggressive in wanting to dig if I had to pick something there. 

19 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Buddy1987 , how are u feeling about it? I know we are 6 days out but I don't feel to good about this. I hate to say that. Would love to be wrong but this, at the moment, screams rain, cold front, with a little snow after the front moves through.

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Honestly don’t feel good about it.. time and time again it never fails. The least snowiest model always rules around our forum. I’m hoping we get lucky and for the most part the GFS/Ensembles have been very consistent but a lot of the other models I feel like people are pulling at straws. I was one of them. Not gonna lose hope but kinda speaking the truth here so I don’t get let down like usual. 

15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS was pretty ugly.. the 6z GEFS was about the same as 0z.

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Yea agreed sloppy phase. Very odd evolution. The naysayers and the Debbie downers are starting to rear their ugly heads. Let’s hope 12z at least provides a little clarity one way or the other. I did see where the s/w is coming over Alaska tonight they’ve been doing launches for data purposes and that is supposed to be ingested into the 0z models tonight. This is where the models are deviating from one another due to the strength of that s/w. Euro keeps it more consolidated vs gfs has it start to stretch to where downstream we all see it more east of the euro and the other models showing cutter scenarios. 

Nice qpf bump on 0Z GEFS.

0Z

18Z

1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Looping the CMC h5, it made a very, VERY subtle cave towards the GFS

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the ensembles are what i'm looking to hear about because they have been in disagreement with the op