Buddy1987

@Weather Will 12Z Nam not joking around with ZR totals... guidance has really been trending back toward what they were showing last Friday with this system.

Freezing Rain totals on 12Z Nam nothing to joke about from 81 down toward the Escarpment. 

8 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

The 18z GEFS is much more robust with the extent of the freezing rain Thursday, getting all the way down into central NC vs the 12z GEFS which barely made it to the NC border.

Interesting.

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Definitely need to keep an eye on that!

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18z EURO concurs as well, at least SW VA 81 corridor at minimum. 

There are no words to describe the 18z GFS/GEFS hahaha.

Just now, nj2va said:

I remember doing an epic walk in the middle of the night while snow was puking.  That WAA was fun.

Need Jebman to give his analysis and break down the play by play on his walk for that one 

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Anyone know where I can find Northern Hemisphere upper air maps for December of 1983? That is the king of December arctic outbreaks for me. We were -7 on Christmas morning here. 

I honestly kinda thought University of Wyoming would have something. Only thing I could really find was a Washington Post article that has a lot of similarities between 1983 and then the 2013 setup. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/06/current-pattern-draws-comparisons-to-that-from-historically-cold-December-1983/

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GFS setting something up for the 23.  50/50 low, 1043 HP over Canada, system developing in the south.

Really been keying in on that for at least several runs. One hell of a HP as well. 
 

TT only goes out to 240 for Euro. Did it show the 23rd as well? 

4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

500mb looked a lot better lmao, what happened?

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It dug further south but the primary low was far stronger, there was a slightly better Cad signature too

That was one thing that caught my eye as well was the confluence up top while the LP was still down in Deep South. Hoping that’s a trend at this point. F*ck it gimme the ice storm at this point. 

Another run of big changes at H5 hr 102 on GFS. 

1 hour ago, Maggie Ace said:

Try Pivital Weather Maps. 

Appreciate that. Looking at the Canadian be lights out along the 81 corridor if it came to fruition (showing 1/2” plus) Between this and Euro not looking good! 

34 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Euro now showing a huge ice event with temps 29-31 in the northern mountains.

I’m trying to find an ice accumulation map and I felt like the Tropical Tidbits products used to have it under each model run but now it’s not there anymore. 

Anyone have an ice accumulation map? I could’ve swore CMC at minimum used to have that product available on TT but I don’t see it anywhere. Not looking great down here with ice storm potential. 

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS pulled the rug out of course. I wouldn't expect anything less. When the Euro ain't showing the storms, don't go with the ones that are.

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One OP run brother. 18z at that too. Let’s see what 0z suite brings us. 

6 minutes ago, JoshM said:

0z Happy Hour, weenie run... 

 

 

 

My first post since last year, which feels kinda weird. Took a pretty long break. Nice to see the threat pop up within 7 days basically. Not some fantasyland 384hr threat. Interesting to see what the models start to possibly sniff out as we close in. 

3-6” of rain forecasted here and winds to 55mph on ridge tops. Not too shabby. 

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

just now seeing rotonda, lol what a dumb ass part of the country

I stayed there as recent as this past Memorial Day weekend in May. Pretty out in the boonies but def some very nice houses around the area. Port Charlotte the most built up. Gonna be sad to see some of the pics most likely coming out of there. 

41 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

As far as flooding goes, the western Carolina’s may actually have the higher risk as an overrunning event sets up with moisture from Ian being sheared north. The easterly flow from the circulation against the mountains would further enhance rainfall for east facing slopes. These can be very significant events for that part of the south especially with a tropical system interacting with a boundary providing increased lift over a large area. 

That’s actually a really good point. The “PRE” is no joke when it verifies WNC/SVA 

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

The totals have actually increased the closer we get to this. Could be a few surprises for some outside of the mountains. The Euro and RAP are very similar 

Rap and the derpy derp look super interesting up this way. Any further southeast and you could be in for a pleasant surprise.

44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll have some of whatever the RGEM is smoking

Boy I sure would love for that to be right but it always tends to overdo literally everything so there’s that as well. 

Yea trends this afternoon for Sat system have def become interesting to say the least. Euro looked great. 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS actually gets the heavier precip further north than 12z

Yea southern/central into northern va getting nuked at 138. S/w looked healthier starting at 126. 

Pouring snow down now but temp still 34. Gorgeous at the minimum.

4 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Hard to Tell but I’d say maybe 2” or so up here on “Country Roads” mountain… 19 and Flurries currently. Not sure what that means for you @Buddy1987 since you’re a bit further south but good luck if I’m not too late I just woke up 

Congrats on the snow there! This is one of those “snow tv” type of days here. Nothing really sticking but it is really pretty outside. Larger dendrites starting to fall as that last band starts to push in from Blacksburg. Curious if Disc got anything out his way

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

 Measured 2.5”, still lightly snowing 

Congrats Mappy! 

The band that’s formed down this way just west of the blue ridge looks like it means business. Been watching that thing for a good 30 min and it has continued to strengthen. Pearisburg is getting the goods. Hoping this continues to march this way. Congrats to everyone north of here cashing in. @psuhoffmanand @nj2vakeep em comin