Buddy1987

Moderate snow and 26. Everything starting to cave rather quickly. 

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

@Bob ChillGFS is SOLID for us! Believable tho?

Damn.. I was trying to will it up that way.. even down here anything close to 3” would be a huge win.. expectations are 1”

There’s radar hallucinations and then there’s NAM hallucinations. NAM looks like it’s trying to juice up at 26 on the northwest side of the storm. 

Anyone have an 18z Euro snow map?

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

So did I. Hope the varsity team shows similar improvement for your backyards. 

In contrast the FV3 and RGEM look like hot trash..

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Both the nam and icon hang the tpv lobe back a little opening the door for more amplification before the TN valley. One thing that can help anyone/everyone is the shortwave to accumulate as much gulf juice as possible before approach. That + a modest adjustment in track can make up some lost ground 

I thought the NAM and Icon were rather improved for our specific areas at 12z. Putting those two names into a sentence just feels gross. 

@ravensrule I think the key to all of this is converting @clskinsfanover from the dark side. Usually when he’s pumped or feeling it good things happen!

2 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Are we New England vs Atlanta or KC vs Philly

Shit… 12z runs were Dallas vs Buffalo in the 92 Super Bowl in comparison 

Has sampling been done or will that be for 0z runs with system onshore?

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Still locked at 3-6 for us. Wont take much to add a few inches. Increasingly unlikely to lose much. The storm as shown is just a slug of WAA then it shuts off as things get cranking to the east. It won't take much to spread the shield in the dmv area another 50 miles NW either. That's trickier and certainly not something i could guess with confidence 

Damn.. you look to be in the best position for our area. I worry seeing those lower totals directly to my southwest. 

How does the WAA look for southern VA area? I don’t have paid access.

Just now, peribonca said:

Less confluence up north this run....

Now THIS is believable. I feel like confluence always tends to weaken closer to game time. 

Lol NAM just refuses to budge on the amped version of this storm. 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Latest blend still looks good for many.

The way the last 24 hours has gone I’d take that in a heartbeat and run!

I reread every post from last night. Epic posts were had. Some of the highlights included clskinsfan going full meltdown mode, my fav post of all talking about how a goose in Kansas farting would change the track on the gfs and then Randy just coming out of a dark alleyway at 4am ish asking what he missed! Weather will drive you absolutely bananas but sometimes the posts in here are pure comedy. 

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Other than some op eye poppers, I never saw much evidence for a big/classic storm. The term big ones sniffed out early also includes ops showing big solutions over and over. We really only had a mid range pocket of solutions that did that. For every big run there was a scary one and analogs never stacked up with big solutions. Hard to ignore that and remain grounded in reality lol. 

This storm does seem primed to dump a foot on someone. Small area like the last one. Overall snow shield is much larger this go around. I'd like to think it makes a lot of people happy but I'm second guessing that lol. 

I need the positive Bob Chill from yesterday, who pushed his chips all in on 3-6” bare minimum. 

I feel like after what I just witnessed it’s hard not to buy into JI’s theory about the least snowiest model always being the one that ends up correct. Pretty wild. 

Weenie handbook page #247.. storm disappears 96hrs out only to come back stronger than before and reel us all back in. 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We are pretty begging for a 3-5 WAA thump at this point. We need the coastal to pop in SC or it is over. And PSU mentioned earlier about the primary needing to be driven up into KY. He's right. This isnt a Miller a bomb out of the Yucatan. We are pretty much cooked on the coastal storm at this point imo. Hope I am wrong. 

The way this thing is going the @Solution Mansign here for 5” I’d do right now. WAA still looks good down this way in the interim, but it ain’t the 12-18” that once was a thing. 

What an F’n sick joke this crap is… 

4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

*Contemplates how many times 'Miller B' and 'screw job' have left western VA in a shadow........*

Even a hybird can create a 'hole' in western VA/eastern WV depending on how far the transfer occurs.

I feel like with the low getting going a little later off the coast “damage” will be done already with the wall of moisture that will traverse over us. Anything additional from the coastal is gravy.

Just now, yoda said:

00z NAM at 84 h5

Surface

 

Surface LP good bit northwest of GFS and Euro at end of its run. Looks good. 

@psuhoffman I feel like this specific storm feels overly convoluted. If I’m understanding correctly does the kicker not affect the WAA as much for areas in the southern forum, thus not having to rely on the coastal blowing up or am I misinterpreting this?

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I actually don’t hate the low position up to about 105-108, would expect a little better shield

I actually thought the same thing. Either convective feedback along the gulf coast or it truly is robbing advection of moisture.