Buddy1987

4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

850s 1-2C colder already on NAM, confluence change 50-75 miles S

Beat me to it.. snow developing 12z Sat to start 81 corridor central and southern va.. pretty noticeable change.

Guess someone was on it earlier mentioning the SREF lol.. 12K NAM juicing up at 30 

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Euro is better, closer to the GGM and UKIE 

More precip, little stronger, closer

Great track too if that matters at this point.. MYR to right around VA Beach. Can’t ask for better track. 

Those of us in central and southern VA may want to start preparing for a pretty nasty ice storm. Models at 12z trended colder. Majority of the precip looks to come through during overnight into Sat morning where temps would naturally be cooler due to nocturnal effect.

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So wait VA went from an historic snow event to an ice storm in 36 hours? Honest question, haven't been following that area.

Yes Blacksburg actually wrote a nice little AFD this morning talking about the fact that they had a meeting with neighboring Wfo’s along with WPC. Foothills of NC went ahead and issued a winter storm watch post meeting but Blacksburg didn’t feel like they have the 50% threshold met yet with snow/ice to pull the trigger. I’ve seen some models pump out like .4 of ice down here which would be really bad.. if that starts to come to fruition I could see them possibly changing their mind as that would be pretty impactful in this area and the first moderate winter event in a couple years. 

Fallen behind on some things that have been developed more recently. FV3 a decent high res model?

NAM at 57 looks pretty darn cold with cad far down into southern/southwestern NC and a good slug of freezing rain pushing through that area.

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

MJO gonna go ape in the warm phases

Nino isn’t enough to overpower the nina base state

11th straight warmest winter for NE, bad juju there

It’s never going to snow again, so we’re f’ed

 

Do you downgrade your forecast now or are you holding off until MLK time frame. This is pretty depressing we just can’t do winter or cold or snow anymore. 

Kind of wishing for something at this point that doesn’t want to come to fruition. Congrats to people like @WxWatcher007 and @clskinsfan and folks up that way. @mappyyoull prolly end up good side of things too. 

anyone still have access or know where to get it for ice accumulations. A lot of models I’m seeing are showing an icy setup down this way.

32 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Rough start this morning after last night's great runs. GFS is much faster and weaker. Also looks a tad warmer as well.

Well.. that was extremely disappointing to wake up to. Hopefully off run will come back at 12z. Don’t like the trend at all with weaker low exiting off the coast. GFS more like Euro this am.

On the next episode of Jerry Springer, the GFS.. 

every model run there’s a plot twist with this dang thing.. what a time to be a met for the nws trying to forecast for the general public. 

What a d*ck kick to NYC north completely grazed. Ha!

96 DC getting absolutely murdered with meatball fatties. Cue up @Jebmanits time for the man to awaken the crowd. 

Nothing like a 4mb difference in HP strength at 90.. 1027 to 1031 

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

CMC absolutely crushes us, S of last run w more conflunece

GFS noticeable shift more confluence

did something get sampled?

Just now, winter_warlock said:

So far through 72. I dont see any low heading towards the O V

Starting to relax some about the dual low scenario… 84 has light snow breaking out sw va and 1032 parked up Toronto area. Slid over perfectly north of Lake Superior. Pretty sweet spot to funnel in. So far looking awesome. 

GFS through 60 maybe looks to be a tad quicker with energy diving southeast out of Texas and slightly better confluence? What’s everyone think?

Def some southeastward progression at 72 with gulf low now.. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

on a scale of 1-10 how worried are we about suppression?

Lol literally I’m at a 1 with how some of these model runs have gone last day or two. No low west of Richmond will do anyone any good. 

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah also I think the NAM 3k is good for CAD real close in like 24 hours.  I’ve given up the idea of being north of the 540.  534 would be money but that’s not the cards we were dealt.  Honestly I could see both upside surprise or total fail at my location.  I have no margin.  All I have is being left of the fall line.  Essentially a pair of 3s.  Gotta make that win somehow. 

Oh for sure.. just a good distance out of range still as you well know but should get some inkling of an idea as to how much cad will be available maybe tomorrow this time. I’m almost wondering if the high won’t feel as forced to exit stage right if it’s not feeling the effects of the primary low driving into the OH valley. 

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I thought the 534 line was up near Detroit.  Will have to look again. 

540 line at height is in far far nw VA but 2m has cad all the way down closer my way so if anything I think someone can score a decent storm. Holding out hope euro looks good. I may stand corrected but I could’ve swore some time back euro was updated to better predict cad. May have dreamed that but I thought I read it at one point or another. 

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Yea, it looks like a classic overrunning event, but that 540 line is up there, no?  Maybe I'm underestimating the amount of caa in place.

I feel like gfs can have a tendency to “under-do-it” in these type of scenarios however if the HP ends up sliding east too quickly we could have some problems. I’m honestly so starved for winter precip I don’t care at this point if I get a 3” sleet bomb. Anything will do I’m not going to be picky when it’s been forever since we got something other than a trace. 

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Enjoy the digital blue opium for the next 40 minutes before Euro shats on the party.

Euro savin us! 

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I actually didn't like the 18z run even with the output.  The H5 setup looks sketchy, to say the least.  Really gonna need the cad to do its thing...which is possible.

I felt like if the track can materialize the way 18z gfs depicted we stand a decent chance in favored areas to get a front end thump accomplished. Really like the fact that it’s starting to back away from the Ohio valley death blow that would flood all levels. 

Good lord.. I get it’s a “storm thread” but man have we gotten strict about what you can and can’t post in there.. half of the pages comments on one page were deleted and I felt like I kept it on topic. I get along well with almost everyone I speak to generally speaking. Seems a bit harsh.. rant over 

That 18z gfs run sucked me back in. Def better output for normal nw areas except now it extends back all the way down 81 corridor. LLC looks to have had a slight win compared to previous two runs. EPS wasn’t horrid. This may still have legs. Sucker me in one more time.