Buddy1987

5 minutes ago, philconnors said:

Would a trend to the NW appear to be in order as we get closer? We see that a lot. Climo is just so against this happening verbatim. Hard to buy in. But as some have said, absolute classic setup.

I would say yes imo. You see each model run a lot of key ingredients are coming together to indicate more of a shift to a westward component. Like I said earlier, GFS is on an island. Sometimes in these instances, the GFS has problems handling these types of storms and is always farther southeast than what ultimately comes to fruition.

Pack, I feel like its not done yet either. I look for it to shift even more now as we draw closer to the event. GFS on its own island right now. 

Just now, wncsnow said:

Hour 72.. 

The trend continues for our backyards!

With each run we say bye to the GL low more and more, which allows the trough axis to go negative and allow all the gulf moisture to be advected up our way.

Just now, packbacker said:

LOL..holy crap.

Rates=Triad DESTROYED!  that is classic man. WOW!

1 minute ago, griteater said:

NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girls

With the tilt the way it is showing, I would look for future depiction and evolution of the qpf to look even better. The gulf is literally wide open this go around. Lets see if the 12z model suite continues. CMC/JMA/UKIE camp ftw? lolll

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Temps? 850s good? How's BL

Havent even looked yet. Just worried about getting the storm and the synoptics nailed down first here.

NAM has moisture all the way back to western NC at 57. 

HUGE difference.

Naturally at 54, the westward moisture content is noticeable, building into Alabama etc.. Trough trying to go neutral/negative. This run is going to get interesting quickly.

Just now, burrel2 said:

I'm thinking it's about to spit out a blockbuster hit!

Looks absolutely classic to me. The nose of the moisture is pointing right in our direction and the orientation of everything would allow all of that to stream right toward us.

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run

Trough axis is going nuts at 48. Extremely sharp over Dallas. One would think there would be much more moisture influx from the Gulf than what the Nam is showing.

Just now, NCSNOW said:

Nam is colder futher east in NC v/s 6z

It is exclusively wanting to key on the second wave. Look at the trough axis setting up at hr 42. 

36 hrs you can definitely see the sharpening of the trough over central OK. Moisture increase is noticeable over southeast TX and the Gulf. Lets see where she goes.

Only thing I can see on the 12z nam through hr 26 is that the trough axis is not as positively tilted. Maybe a better solution in future frames?

2 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Several ensemble members now have a stronger system, similar to what a few of the others models have.

What is your gut call on this system? Nam/GFS are a weaker version. Euro is in the middle and then you have the camps of NAVGEM/GGEM/CMC/JMA and to an extent the UKIE. Tough forecast for the mets. Major implications if one camp sways to the other.

1 minute ago, msuwx said:

GEFS went way up on snow totals in the NW half of NC on the 6z run, compared to 0z.

Is it taking into account maybe some lift with orographics and such?

Goodness. A lot of what if’s on that run with the s/w Wow explained and how the nam is keying on the second wave. The gulf is wide open. It is the nam in fantasy range though, so will be reserved in my excitement. 

Nam looks super juiced at 75 along the gulf. 

Grit, looks like you’re right man. At 54 much flatter and the qpf is cut in half for the southeast. Did not expect this honestly from the nam. 

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

At 42, NAM is hanging the southern shortwave back over New Mexico a bit, more like the globals...think that will limit this from being super amped up and well west....we'll see

I noticed that as well. I wonder if the models are going to do there typical hold the s/w back too long in the Southwest and the end result may end up being more west. Guess we will see. I know the Euro is terrible with this, however idk how the nam does we these setups. 

I am noticing a ton of new folks in our forum this year. Would like to welcome everyone who considers this a wonderful hobby. I would like to make a few pointers, as I see some of the questions coming up. In regards to model times, the NAM and the GFS run 4 times per day. The NAM runs around the timeframes of 0400,1030,1600 and 2200 hours (06z,12z,18z and 00z). The GFS runs around 0530,1130,1730 and 2330 hours. The Euro runs two times per day, at approximately 0230 and 1430 (00z and 12z).

The one word of caution I would give to the newbies is that a. The nam tends to over amplify storms and in my opinion, is a great tool to use for 2m temps, along with thermals and such (sniffes out low level temps for freezing rain events). The SREF, which is a Nam hybrid or to my understanding derives from the same Nam type setup (a met can explain this better) also has its tendencies to give you a precursor a lot of the times as to how the Nam run will play out before the Nam actually comes out. It too also has the tendency to over amplify. The SREF usually comes out around 2030-2100 hours.

I would be happy to answer any questions to the best of my ability. I love when new folks come in and are interested in our hobby we all share on here. I am not a moderator or met by any means, but I enjoy the weather very much so, especially winter time. 

Question. Will the jet above the surface help with this storm in providing lift and moisture increase against the mountains of NC/VA to aid in the production of increased qpf against the blue ridge or no?

Not to be the debbie downer, but I think some folks may have their expectations set too high with the always over amped NAM. I would be highly suspect of what it is portraying, just from previous disappointments.