Buddy1987

NAM Freezing Rain Totals:

8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Is that the end of the run or did it keep going? Pretty paltry numbers if so for the northern crew 

12 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

It’s all part of the game. We win rarely and lose usually, but that’s risk in tracking.  For me the most frustrating ones are when the tracking goes well for days and days leading up to the event, only to end up as too warm, too dry, or too far south.   Some of the most interesting storms are those that thread the needle or rely on deformation. 

That I can't deny there. Feel like overall i'm in a spot that stands the best chance but time will tell as we get closer. 

13 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

GEFS Mean:

That is an exponential increase from previous runs. Nice to see that at least as we get closer to game time. Canadian thermals worry me however, because normally they tend to run somewhat colder. Now the question is does the Canadian Ensembles disagree with the OP there..

23 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I guess the southwest VA folks like this run though

I will believe this sh*t when I see it down this way falling and on the ground. Anything to do with 850s and having to wet bulb just screams don't get invested. 

21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Just an incredible cut off
@Buddy1987 @Disc . Looks good for yalls area.

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I will believe it when I see it. Wondering how pronounced the warm nose is at 700? 

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The stronger ULL yields much better back side dynamic bands of precip. Small changes made a big difference. I don't think we're done just yet. 

This! That’s a hell of a deform band that traverses the favored areas. Someone’s gonna get nailed good by that. 

1 minute ago, msuwx said:

Biggest takeaway is that it came in way, way stronger at 500mb than the previous run. I mean a lot stronger. 

Exactly how that closes off, and how the vort energy causes the ULL to wobble, to make a big difference for folks in the western Carolinas.

Yea agree with this as well. Biggest issue at onset will of course be 850s along with the ability to wet bulb down, and unfortunately even as far north as I am in the forum, we don't normally do wet bulb too well. I do love the fact though the ULL gives someone a chance to deform like crazy. 

Euro that bad overnight? 

Temps are soooo borderline. This is going to be very close. Moisture is there. Main problem is there’s no antecedent conditions or any major source or supplier of cold air really anywhere around us other than what that ULL can create. 

0z GFS looks like it’s about to get good at hr 66. Moisture primed 

0z GFS looks like some of its previous runs prior to 18z. Copious amounts of moisture. A matter now of whether western NC can dynamically cool enough. 

Take the ICON as you may, but 0Z def trended in favor of Western NC and SW VA for a period of heavy snow, esp compared to 18z. Model trends look good starting the night off here. 

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Georgia folks will like the nam

End of the run looks to be a big sleet storm for majority, although I wonder how deep the warm nose would be because of wind direction and borderline surface temps. Feel like it would be more of a rain/snow scenario however I may be wrong on this too because i'm not going to go too deep into a sounding on the 84 NAM lol.

@75 Precip delayed some compared to 18z at 81. One thing I do like is that meso high is placed in a good position. 

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

Guidance has trended towards a slower move east of the ULL.  If the neutral tilt can hold until it gets towards the east coast states and then go negative, then… I know, self weenie 

By HR 51 at 5h everything kind of evens out basically with the ULL compared to 18z. 

0Z NAM at 39 already has the ULL southwest of 18Z position by a pretty good bit (eastern OK/western AR vs now southern OK/northern TX. More neutral tilt then positive and the confluence and vort in northern new england looks to be pressing down some. Not entirely sure how that affects things as the run continues but definitely some noticeable differences. 

Just for ha-ha’s, are the SREF’s even available anymore? I always used to like to see which way the NAM was going to go at 0z based on them. 

I’m looking for the common ground when all is set and done, unless GFS takes a large jump westward tonight, then I will start to get a tick more concerned. 

23 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs vs euro at 90
Hours




.

Middle ground compromise in store..? Gonna find out one way or the other. Thanks for posting. 

Anybody going to help out with 18z euro when it comes out? Curious to see what it’s doing. 

5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Beware GEFS under-dispersal problem. It tends to waffle around with its OP run most of the time. 

Gotcha. Appreciate it. To your point the ULL track still wasn’t bad for the northern and northwestern crew and did even appear to be a bit stronger with the closed contour. My take would be qpf would tend to work out in most cases to the northwest of the track. Guess I’d take my chances with a MYR track although I feel like @BornAgain13 area and then into Winston Salem/GSO would seem to benefit a bit more from that track. Beggers definitely cannot be choosers this season. 

Ugh… 18z GEFS 24 hr qpf looks to have toned it down for now and shifted precip more south and east of SW VA and NC mountains. Hopefully it’s a small blip and 0z comes back. 

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I'm where that black dot is. Look at those means just west of my location .

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Nice man! I'm in-between the 5.2 and 6.9 where the dark blue intersects the purple. 

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That’s a Floyd VA to Blacksburg and NRV mauling. 
 

Also you know something’s up when @Discis lurking.. 

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Slower is not good with the marginal cold air even worse if its delayed until Sunday

Yea kinda figured. Seemed to me like that meso high and the ULL were timing perfectly. Any trend you or anyone else on here that have noticed with models slowing things down too much this year or no? Guess I don’t see why this can’t absolutely be a plausible scenario. Would be unfortunate but I expect nothing less with this winter.