Buddy1987

Man if I didn’t know anything and saw the map at 108 I’d think for sure we have a Miller A on our hands. Too bad that didn’t materialize. Let’s see what happens with the storm next week. 

@psuhoffmanif trends continue can we get a live stream at some point for one of the model runs? 

12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GEFS

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What’s really odd is the low actually shifted closer to the coast on the 18z GEFS. Kinda thought it would increase the median but I’m still very pleased we have back to back solid runs. REALLY hoping to get something here. I wanted to see how far back the models nailed that Dakotas blizzard and they were toward a week or so forecasting what was going to transpire, which makes me feel good as we get closer. Let’s hope! 

19 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

PNA ridge and it's effect on the angle of the jet will largely decide how far the wave will dig. Need the jet to be aligned more out of the NNW than it is on the Euro. There's certainly more pieces involved like the speed of the southern piece of energy, and the confluence/blocking over the NE not allowing a weakness for it to slide east, but the PNA ridge certainly feels like the most important ingredient.

The best part to this is it's been trending better and better as we approach the time frame, which makes me super excited. Good point out though!

8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

One thing is for sure, I will definitely be staying up later to watch the 0z runs. I'll sacrifice losing a little sleep tracking this lol

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I'm gonna weenie tag this but I also will be joining you because it's piqued my interest.

11 minutes ago, Wow said:

is something happening in here?

LMAO!! I was wondering when you were going to show up. Hope all is well. I agree with @BornAgain13 that's a marked improvement on the EPS.

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Hopefully other globals will catch on!

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Canadian has primarily shown this system. 12Z was a swing and a miss however. If EURO shows it this board is gonna go nuts!

15 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Gefs don’t look as wet as the op. 

It won't necessarily because of the blend of all the individual members. The key detail with the ensembles is to pinpoint the fact of 1. It agrees with the OP and 2. It is showcasing that time frame is a time to keep an eye on.

GEFS looking sexy for the same time frame..

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m leaving that sweet task to mappy. 
 

my return will herald in a new age of horrible moderation, subpar play by play and the Kirkland brand version of analysis. 

Nah.. forget that.. your return is going to result in biblical snows upon us! You've brought good juju before.

Guys I gotta say the GFS ENS has me salivating with the setup. If the strong block modeled around the 22nd/23rd can force the 50/50 underneath it there is no telling the fireworks that could go off in that setup. If it doesn’t eastern seaboard (maybe Philly north would look to cash in). It could easily happen so stay tuned. The 500 setup is about as good as you can get for an east coast snowstorm. 

Question for the pros in here. How much emphasis would you put behind the NAM and CAD related events, especially seeing how much more it raised the ante with regards to expected accumulation of ice at 12Z? Do you feel like it's overdoing it or does it hold some weight in these scenarios if you were going to create a forecast using it in a specific setup like this?

1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Ok, got a moment...

Happy Hour did deliver, having taken a step back on the right track compared to the last 18 hours. GEFS also improved south of I85 and the run avg was significantly colder for Christmas.

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At the absolute minimum here that cold shot is no freakin joke! 

@nj2vaor @Weather Willthose euro shots of zr accumulation, you happen to have them as to what they show just a tick south of that map in SW VA? 

Guys, I really wouldn’t overly be concerned about the Euro. There are several known biases that come into play concerning the model itself, including over-amplifying, along with a very well known bias of not correctly ejecting energy out of the southwest. By holding it back a couple days it completely transforms the 500 and surface maps. Could it be onto something? Sure.. Is it most likely showing its hand with its tendencies? That’s what I’m banking on. I’m ready for cold and snow so it’s all I can do to counteract what just happened lol. GFS and Canadian were also not far off of one another whatsoever. 

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

^I think that op Euro run was a little jarring with people worried this is the first domino to fall or just a blip

Yea I agree. @brooklynwx99 touched on the bias of over-amplifying but the Euro also has known biases when it comes to not ejecting systems out of the southwest and holding the energy back, thus imo why 500 and surface look the way they do based on what JI shared. 

@Weather Will waiting for the 12Z ice accumulation map off the Euro! Appreciate everything you contribute. 

After reviewing the 12Z suite, giving me a lot of concern for ice accrual, ESPECIALLY with looking at CAD savvy models, i.e. NAM and Canadian, with their superiority for being able to sniff out CAD related events. Really painting an ugly picture up and down 81 and up 64. Going to be interesting to see what transpires as we close in. I take the GFS and the EURO to an extent with a grain of salt when it comes to these types of setups. 

32 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

There’s nothing more frustrating to winter weather weenies than op model runs during a pattern change   

Agreed! The Euro Ensembles and to a degree the GEFS as well are honking for late next week. That’s what I’m hanging my hat on at this juncture. 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

00z NAM not really coming in colder but the cold looks to stay entrenched a bit longer, fwiw.

Looks to have cut back pretty good bit on overall qpf. Nam known to do that since last upgrade however. 

36 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Isn’t that right where we want it at 1 week out?

Precisely! 

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

18Z GFS is about the coldest GFS run yet for the days just before Christmas.

12/21 has an ominous look to it with the GEFS mean just off the coast for majority of the area. Definitely a time to watch that would be closest. 

Man... Happy Hour GFS is trying REALLY hard at about Hr180.. 

Does the RDPS normally run colder than most models? The Freezing Rain totals are prolific, even if you cut them in half here..

18Z NAM really laying the smackdown from about HR 60 to HR 72 up and down 81. Waiting for Pivotal to update Freezing Rain map totals, as there seems to be a glitch... Here is HR 66 when it's already been happening:

12Z GFS basically a north of 64 threat and especially as you get into Northern VA along 81. We will see what happens as we get closer to the event and the NAM comes more into range for its sniffing out of CAD. So far this morning it's Canadian's/NAM vs GFS with how far the cold air is entrenched.