Buddy1987

Very nice band starting to take shape just off to my west. Will be thee opportunity if there’s going to be one. Been watching it for about 30 min and it continues to strengthen. Temp has been going down nicely. 37/28 

HRRR been pretty darn consistent with that 81 band from about Blacksburg all the way up into Winchester etc Nam attempting to show something similar 

Nam is strictly a NW VA type short duration event. 

What a freakin shallacking from the HRRR

00z HRRR delivering the goods up this way. We’ll see what the Nam has to say 

Good to see 18z 3k with more precip. Been running awfully dry since the upgrade awhile back. 

51 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Buddy1987 you will really like the HRRR

50 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

HRRR drops 6 inches in some NC foothill locations. 

Damn! HRRR escalated things quickly although it’s long rang HRRR so I’m taking it with a grain of salt. 12z Nam was more aggressive as well so maybe I waived the white flag too soon. 

22 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” 
 

Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there 

18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I think a general 1-2" will be common up this way with maybe 3-4" in some of the mountains.

I don’t want to be Debbie downer but I smell a bust on this one. After seeing the 6z gfs just kinda go poof with the qpf it kinda put the nail in the coffin for me 

0Z 12k Nam looking more GFS like each and every run as we draw closer. 

13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

GFS getting some company on that island 

Yep was just going to literally type that. Icon looks more gfs like as well with band in SVA. I guess if I set goalpost for 2” I’d be pleasantly surprised and happy for that matter.

38 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m not sold this is an event even your way. This is a very fragile setup for snow much less accumulating snow. RGEM depicts how these usually end up and it shows serious temperature issues. No one’s going to hop on board a system on this forum where only a few locations have any chance to see accumulation in NC and VA with a very low high end even if all things break correct. No disrespect to you fringe folks, this just isn’t a good event! 

I’m def not discounting any of that by any means. I agree with you for sure. My expectations are below tempered like basically expecting the grass to get coated lol so no disrespect taken whatsoever. I thoroughly enjoy this forum and the people that are in it. Your posts are always very fact based

This is what I was alluding to. I’m so far on the nw fringe of the forum no one can really relate. Still a 2-5” type ordeal here but it’s still on an island with that. 

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Haha see????!!!!

I was literally about to quote you from yesterday about this. As soon as I viewed the model and saw it I laughed bc I remembered what you had said. Never fails! 

Man gfs on a complete uninhabited island of its own

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

The 0z GFS just had to go and get my hopes up and drop 8"... geez...

 dude 84 hr frame it’s just dumping snow down your way. That was a really nice run and 5h looked very nice as well. Better dig with the energy 

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

RGEM wasn't to bad... didn't get to finish its run... the NAM however was awful.

I hate these kind of storms man. Geographically you and I get stuck in no man’s land because southeast crew could care less about mostly cloudy skies and most of the MA crew is all around DC northern VA area hours from us so it’s like we don’t have a happy medium

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Rgem looks fine to me 

Where do you get access to RGEM that early? I checked pivotal and TT

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NAM and RDPS are laughing at us for thinking there is a threat

Lol drier than the Sahara. What a year to track models inside 100 hours

side note not that it matters much but icon looks like arse as well. Not really expecting the gfs to produce here at 0z. Hope I’m wrong but trend seems to reduce qpf

@BornAgain13flush hit 18z gfs I just feel like this is thread the needle needs to be perfect 

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RGEM looks like it was about to produce a big storm but it was also going to be pretty far north 

Yea that baby is pretty amped

I find it rather comical it’s 2022 and we’re basically 4 days out and that’s what we get out of two of the biggest models to try and figure out as to whether you get nothing or 7” for my specific area. Someone correct me if I’m wrong (other than last system where GFS totally sh*t the bed) but the trend has been for the models to start to gravitate toward the gfs. 

CMC has been trash this year. Very disappointed in it comparatively to years past. Ukie apparently is bipolar as well. Was in lock step essentially with gfs now a nothing burger. It will trend back. I’m cautiously optimistic for WNC mountains into SVA at minimum. 

24 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

12z Icon looks Euro-like

I actually thought the icon trended more toward a gfs like event on that specific run. I have a good feeling for today 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That was quite the run of posting some of the most useless WB maps.

Y'all are dangerous.

Lmao I actually thoroughly enjoy the Weather Will WB maps. Why?! No logical or scientific explanation behind it. 

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Hmmm, highs in the 60s the day before? Cold chasing moisture? What could go wrong?

Wrt temps my damn yard is like a frozen tundra so that wouldn’t play a factor in my mind