Buddy1987

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z CMC is still a cutter FWIW

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Canadian is a joke. It's own ensembles have been laughing at the OP.. that h5 is going to produce one hell of a storm if it's still showing something remotely close as we get to Sunday night time frame and start to hone in on specifics.

The amount of scenarios revolving around flatulence today is making me laugh audibly. @HKY_WX warned earlier in the Southeast forum that any remote fart could pop a SECS with the pattern setup. Now we have baked beans, butterflies, and polar bears involved. Whale tidal waves are the tip of the iceberg.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

That was a f-ed up looking evolution.  Not sure what to make of that but ok

look at my H5 chart I posted at 144. That's what dreams are made of right there. We have that same look in 2 days from now and I would love to say the surface is gonna look damn sexy.

1 minute ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

156, DEFINITE improvement over 18z, at least the LP is on this side of the Apps. Regardless of precip falling, that is a big step back in the right direction. Haven't looked at the upper air charts yet.

Need that lead wave to slow down a little, which it has in consecutive runs now. Want that energy to catch up on the backside and make this thing go bananas.

Idc what the surface shows at 144 that H5 map is a thing of freakin beauty.. we have this same look in 2 days and there is going to be something epic happening along the eastern seaboard.

18Z 

Man H5 at 144 is a beaut!

18Z

HR 135. LP much closer to coast comparing it to 18z.

Pretty significant changes with the s/w and the amplification with it. Noticeable throughout a good portion of the run thus far. Really curious to see what happens to the surface once we get there in just a couple.

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Shortwave in AK is more amplified.  Not smart enough to say what it means downstream though.

HR 69 the s/w being more amped is noticeable and standing out vs 18z. The west coast ridge doesn't seem as pronounced either but that's me speculating with extreme amateur eyes. Terp and High Risk could clarify if they so choose to in hopes to provide clarity.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Fish storm by morning for sure 

With the ICON it literally wouldn't surprise me in the least bit LMAO! 

Whats 1,018 miles in distance between Green Bay WI to Chesterfield VA? Because that's where the LP was modeled at 12Z and now where the 0Z shows before going up into DC. That in my book is a huge win for the GFS, even if it is the ICON.

Wow.. Icon with some pretty big changes to everyone's point here. Out to 126..

Just now, nj2va said:

00z NAM sticks with the GFS’ depiction of the NS SS according to my weenie eyes.  

Agreed! Just finished looking at it myself. 

6 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

It’s difficult to understand how this storm can be this far north and west with the anomalous blocking in the east and ridging in the west.  I will say the 18z GFS is a much more realistic solution than the ECMF IMO.  

It’s also shoving around a 1036HP so I’m not sure how likely that is? Can anyone see this Miller B as well? 

Yea all the way up to about hr 124 looked great but then it started to trend stronger and more west.. 

This run about to bring out the geek in everyone. HR 111 is looking fantastic. Night and day difference between GFS and EURO.

Good to see GFS mostly unchanged through 78 on Pivotal

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I guess one of the biggest struggles is not really knowing what something halfway in-between these two solutions would even look like. I suspect mostly rain for most with a thump of snow on the back end, with the low tracking over the Apps and phasing late. 

That's actually a really good point. Maybe one of the better cases (which would upset most of the crew) would be a charlotte to chesterfield up into the DC area or something. Not sure if even the NC mountains or SW VA could survive that..

Just now, BooneWX said:

For what it’s worth, the gfs and GEFS have been consistent with the signal for days. 

And doesn’t have the tendency to bury things like the euro.. I’ll hang my hat on the gfs and it’s model suite until something substantial changes. Call me crazy but I’ll roll the dice here. 

Who wants to place wagers as to what they think 18z GFS looks like?

Is there any known studies or has history taught us as to which model usually handles western ridges better? That seems to be playing a factor as well unless someone with more knowledge and experience corrects me?

1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Next!

Dude.. i've never seen you so pessimistic on here before. There is literally no way to know which camp is right at the present moment. Can you look at past known biases? Sure.. Until the model war resolves itself either one could be correct. The GFS did score quite a few wins against the EURO here more recently, so there's that as well since the last upgrade of the GFS. 

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Spot on.  I can remember a time when the UK would "preview" what the Euro generally did, or at least that was the speculation here years ago.  It's definitely gone away from that (and of course each setup is different).  You forgot to assess the JMA...

God that’s like the NOGAPS back in the day.. between it and the UKIE with like 60 hrs before the storm they’d be 500 miles southeast of everything else and then all of a sudden magically swing several hundred miles northwest and start to lock in. 

2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

How does something "violently" agree with something else? I'm trying to picture that...

haha!!! I just like to use that word when something is in lockstep. I’m being silly. 

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

I'm very cautious about going with the GFS/GEFS, until the Euro gets on board.

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I will say with this setup this plays into the hand of the Euro having a tendency struggling with n/s energy and dumping it too far west, ala San Diego going from extreme cold to extreme warmth. GFS ain't perfect by any means but with the ensembles violently agreeing, it gives me a little more hope it ends up projecting something close to reality. Beyond that, man.. all out bombogenesis as it heads from MYR to ILM and then the VA Capes.