Buddy1987

Are we rooting for an even earlier start time to this so thermals will cooperate more potentially or is it a moot point if southern stream is weak? 

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The r/s line was too close that any north trend would kill it

No it was.. like even out this way 81 is practically in my backyard west of Roanoke and even I didn’t feel too safe. 12z just gave the dagger. Really unfortunate. I did kind of get my hopes up on this one. 

I mean my god.. we literally go from a beast up the east coast, making many of us happy, to some piece of weak sheared crap within like 24-36 hrs.. might as well cue up Bill Paxtons sense of meteorology minded thinking because he could predict things better in 1998 than 2024 forecast models can. 

Do the pros in here think that primary will end up driving that far north into the OH Valley or is the GFS bias playing into this some in your opinion? 

At this point I’m just relegating myself to a huge sleet storm and hoping it materializes.. thermals looked cooked one way or the other even down right along the blue ridge on 81. Was really hoping for more from this. 

HP starting to show in a much better position at 96 on 6z so that’s a good trend to start. 

Euro saved the day thus far.. really was not overly impressed with 0z guidance at least not down this way. Hoping GFS comes in less amped. 

Would like to think Icon was another good shellacking.. skips between hrs 108-126 as of this moment. Looks like track would he ideal for most here. 

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We had this discussion many times over the years.  I hate when it becomes an argument over definitions.  I could care less what we call them.  The problem is for the "purists" that define any transfer as a miller b, we then HAVE to differentiate between northern stream dominant SW's that transfer and STJ dominant transfer storms.  The best definition system I've seen classifies the later as "hybrid" systems.  And by that definition system our best storms are almost all hybrids.   

Pure miller a storms usually are trucking and moving too fast to dump prolific totals.  The transfer process actually slows down the system some, plus often when a primary west of the apps transfers its because its blocked to some extent.  We also run the risk of being too far west for a pure miller a.  They sometimes end of coastal scrapers for our area and nail NYC, especially in a Nina!  A primary into the TN valley pretty much guarantees we don't miss out on the party, so long as it transfers in time for us to stay cold enough.  Additionally getting the wave to amplify to our SW opens the door to prolific WAA snows before the storm even gets going.  Our really big storms are when we get a foot of snow from overrunning before the coastal even gets going.  

Miller a/b hybrids are actually our best storms.  But the people that classify everything as A/B scare the crap out of some when they classify them as miller b and they suddenly think of every NS jump storm that screwed us over and hit New England.  

I know you know this, we've had this conversation before...but thought it was time to bring it up again for all the new members since the last time we got to actually go over this...since its been so freaking long since we actually got to discuss a legit snow threat in this kind of detail.  

I appreciate you taking time out to break down the main differences between both. 

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Bob explained it well in the thread. It is a dominate southern stream vort is the easiest answer. I consider B's northern stream vorts that jump to the coast. But this one is kind of a hybrid because there is northern stream energy there as well. And I am not even sure there is a true definition of them anyways. 

Well that actually makes sense for me then as to how they are viewed or looked at wrt a true B or hybrid..

@WinterWxLuvr @clskinsfan @psuhoffman I would like to actually know outside of the main thread how it isn’t a Miller B? The 18z gfs had shown the LP up close to WV but then it looked like it popped the new low around VA Beach? Did the surface map not correctly portray it how I thought a Miller B behaved?

GFS is notorious for any of you that are newer here for driving Miller B’s up into the low level cold and then it ends up adjusting closer to go time. This looks like a prime example. 

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS would seem to be on a similar path to 12z. Early though

Wedging looks to have improved once again ever so slightly looking at the isollbars on h5 as cold air really gets entrenched. You can see them push far down south and west into Georgia. Good to see that so far.

Icon looks to be south some once again with precip shield at 108. 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's close...but we need to get that ridge in the PAC into AK and the trough in the plains centered into the TN Valley... that is not a huge adjustment but that would make that a much better snow look. As is that runs the risk of being a cutter look even with the block. 

Normally I feel like our best snows is when the trough is aligned from a point of about Arkansas/Missouri area and in that general vicinity so yes mid Mississippi valley area into TN valley is the “sweet spot” 

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

if I had to choose, I would probably be more worried about a CMC type solution more than anything, but a lot of options are still on the table. not worth really freaking out over at this range

If Euro shows more of a GFS/ICON type look at 12z that ease some fears at all or you’re still worried about trends as we lead up to game time?

Canadian with that sleet and freezing rain signature showing up

HP parked up in eastern canada has that classic look we all love to see. 1030 isn’t the strongest but it will still help to funnel llc down the appalachians. 

Looks to me the GFS is also speeding things up as well some with LP forming along the gulf coast in western LA.

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs already looks like confluence/cold should be improved behind the 4th wave. Maybe something mucks it up but the short range trend looks good to me. 

Like the look of the energy out west early on as well compared to 6z

What a CCB that would be if the 12z icon ever scored a win my dear god. 

Wow! Happy New Years to all. Nothing like a region wide (majority of the forum) 12-18” dumper being shown to kick things off with a bang. 

Weenie rule book ch. 1 pg 114.. GFS always too quick to erode low level cold and moving of HP systems out of the way.

6z gfs nukes Virginia. Hopefully it continues to trend in the right direction for a forum wide  blitzing 

I thought the way that 1/7 storm was set up and the location of the LP placed over the ILM area would produce a much better surface map as we got closer. Storm def has my attention as we start to get closer.