Jump to content

Buddy1987

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,215

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Buddy1987

  1. Buddy1987
    @Bob Chillincoming at 84!
  2. Buddy1987
    Looking at 78 gets me so excited to think what the radar will look like as plentiful moisture is streaming up from the south/southwest. Love when I click on the Greenville or Knoxville radars and just see a wall of precip heading in!
  3. Buddy1987
    Agreed here as well. Little later time with streams attempting to phase. Shouldn’t be as amped as 6z.
  4. Buddy1987
    Negligible thru 48 as well. Slight less digging by Rockies s/w but stj also a little further southwest so I would call that offsetting. Confluence still better up top over the northeast pushing down into the Mid Atlantic.
  5. Buddy1987
    GFS largely unchanged thru 36. Confluence maybe a tick better up in the northeast.
  6. Buddy1987
    12z RGEM looked nice and juicy end of its run. Another plus for the forum.
  7. Buddy1987
    @eyewallno more supercell tracking?
  8. Buddy1987
    @Bob Chill what’s your way too early thinking for us in this neck of the woods? 2-4/3-6?
  9. Buddy1987
    Man! Seeing the ICON with LP over CHS is usually a big sign for an I-40 special at minimum.
  10. Buddy1987
    Looks like Nam may have been on an island thus far. Icon also indicates more phasing earlier on and the surface is responding accordingly by hr 54 over northern OK and AR
  11. Buddy1987
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3-hires&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2025010712&fh=60 End of the FV3 run was definitely way more amped. Bigger qpf bomb developing. Better backside phasing compared to NAM.
  12. Buddy1987
    I hope you guys get whacked! Definitely deserve it. I know it’s been a long time for sure.
  13. Buddy1987
    For what it’s worth FV3 looks nothing like the 12z NAM. Much better phasing happening.
  14. Buddy1987
    In any event the Nam is COLD. Has snow in northern Georgia and northern South Carolina. All of NC. Some may view this as a decent run but I’m looking for a bigger dog with more phasing in hopes someone gets blasted, even if it’s not me. The way the last couple winters have been beggers can’t be choosers so a 2-4/3-6 event would make many happy on here.
  15. Buddy1987
    Nam is trying at hour 69 to go more neutral/negative, as energy on the backside has now caught up but still think it’s a step back for sure. Seems like the models are indicating less phasing and less moisture. Hope it corrects.
  16. Buddy1987
    Out to 51 the surface is corresponding with my fears on less phasing and stream interaction. Much less wintry weather on the northern end of things. See where it goes but I don’t like it so far.
  17. Buddy1987
    12z Nam at 36 thus far has some changes with s/w energy coming out of the western Rockies. Not wanting to dig as hard and phase with our stj. May have implications downstream as we go forward with qpf distribution. Still early but just something I’m noticing.
  18. Buddy1987
    Anyone have 6z Canadian? I heard it was good.
  19. Buddy1987
    Canadian will make NC people VERY happy in here. Even more of a positive tilt which keeps it more sheared out and not wound up. Mid levels and surface are way colder compared to the gfs and you get a nice overrunning event setting up.
  20. Buddy1987
    This system has a lot that can go wrong with it still. There’s multiple pieces in play diving down from the northern stream. Any mistiming of the features and you’re going to have a weaker sheared out system like some of the runs have been showing us. I wouldn’t focus overly much on the totals currently. Keep an eye on h5.
  21. Buddy1987
    Strongly agree with this. It’s like a double edge sword. Positive tilt and less of a phase thermals can get messed up. Negative tilt and s/w swinging in on backside may make for some colder air on the northwest side but then you also run the risk of the system coming further north and west.
  22. Buddy1987
    It’s almost like the southern stream is trying to hang back this run ever so slightly and wait for the s/w to catch up. This is really close to going nuke mode.
  23. Buddy1987
    Slight delay in stream interaction at 60. Not entirely sure how that will play out as we move on in the run. s/w at 66 diving out of the dakotas looks like it wants to be more aggressive a little earlier. See where that leads us.
  24. Buddy1987
    Really not a single major change thru 30. Confluence slightly weaker but that’s about it.
  25. Buddy1987
    GFS rolling. Let’s see if it wants to one up the ICON.
×
×
  • Create New...