Buddy1987

12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Thats a beaut Clark!  Classic everything! 

Careful man don’t be unrealistic and get your hopes up or speak truth on what the models are showing around here. Might be taken out of context.  

Anywho, 12z gfs is a beast of a storm for most the forum. Will leave my analysis short and sweet.

That 6z FV3 run was an absolute thing of beauty! Complete text book with the banana high setup and thus the end result with precip. You have dual structured highs in the Green Bay WI and the main high situated in the Poughkeepsie NY area funneling the cold. If the FV3 taken at face value verified many people on this board would be very happy with the end result. 

FV3 has primary up into east central TN with secondary transfer occurring off hatteras.

edit: secondary looks to form over inland SC and then traverse over hatteras and east northeast from there.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, and the lowest pressure was already in GA by then. This run is a textbook big storm for us. Def reminds me of Dec 09. 

Wow don’t even get me going with that one! 2 footer for ROA and record 24 hr snowfall all the way up to you guys and philly 

It’s one scenario based on the Op but we have got to have the primary stop it’s trek in TN and have the secondary lock in as quick as possible. Taint galore will occur if we can’t get the darn primary to halt the brakes. We’ll see what the GEFS says later. Good to see it coming in quicker for sure.

2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Considerably warmer at 156 at surface, but then considerably colder at 162. Nice surprise.

I will say for your backyard specifically it’s not the greatest with the primary but so long as the primary transfers at 162 in south central TN it will lock in winter precip for the northern zones of the forum. 

No doubt about this run if it comes in much faster the front end thump will be great for a lot of folks. That high is still in a good spot when moisture first moves in.

Also to add, GFS is worlds faster comparing it to 18z with ejecting the storm eastward. Hr 150 has the storm into western MS, whereas 18z still had it back over southern TX

snow developing at hr 156 0z in NC mountains

GFS is juiced up and ready to take off at 138. Impressive qpf map at 0z

much broader expansion on the northern side of the storm up into KS and NE.

3 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

It's called the mountains.

And low dewpoints I’m sure with an airmass like that.

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

ICON looks like it might be good at 165

Icon has a stout 1037HP preceding the storm in eastern WV. Gotta love that for sure with moisture already on the doorstep of the NC mountains.

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here's the 500mb trend on the last 3 runs of the 12z EPS Mean when our storm wave is in a similar location over the southern plains.  Note the trend in the height lines over northern Ohio / NY State / Pennsylvania - the height lines are trending from westerly to more west-northwest.  That subtle difference is a key trend and a good trend for acting to keep our storm wave and associated surface low on a bit of a more southerly track, yielding a colder and more wintry solution for parts of our subforum.  In contrast, if these height lines over NY state trend from westerly to more west-southwesterly, that opens the door for the storm to climb north.  There is a bit more ridging poking into Greenland which helps as well (all subtle differences that are key).

Grit, what about the high pressure system (I’m referring to the HP on the 18z GEFS) that’s around the WI, IA, IL area. Is it correct to think that has an influence in not allowing the primary to gain latitude? 

18z GEFS is worlds difference from the OP and def supports a better overall track. 

Almost all the members have a solid track. One or two run it up into WV but most obv realize the strength of the double structured high pressures.

14 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Dont think that was it Widre because we were in the 40's and 50's leading up to that at KGSO.  No HP in place pre-storm.  This event as modeled has the HP in place starting on Friday.  I agree with Buddy, I think this has to end up a slider if that banana HP is parked and cant understand why the GFS wants to run these systems into a brick wall.

Imo, as this event draws closer, the banana highs from previous experience tends to strengthen. It is formidable a lot of times when these things form and the models pick up on them. I think that is why some of the guys in the mid Atlantic forum are a little nervous for it to end up further south than progged come verification time. I know some of the Mets I talk to have acknowledged they know this is a tendency for the gfs to do this in past events, only to cave and adjust. I know I keep stating it but it is something the GFS always has a hard time with (CAD in general). 

33 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I swear I rememeber we had a similar setup last year where the GFS depicted this exact outcome and the board chatter was identical..  We did end up with a winter event, but cant recall the outcome.  Ring a bell with anyone else, and if so, any similarities?

I feel like I can name more than a handful of times the model has done this. But yes it def rings a bell from last year and then kept adjusting closer to game time. 

On a side note, FV3 is an absolute beauty and much more realistic with the players. Primary into northwestern most portions of Alabama, then transferring energy just off myrtle, solidifying the locking in the cold air for a lot of us. This system has that classic setup that is almost textbook to a major cad event for the forum, whereas its one of those things the model signals, like we’ve seen in years past, picks up a storm at over 10 day lead time and just fine tunes as the system nears. The threat is legitimate at this point, regardless of how far out it is. I’m pretty impressed with the signal that has been run after run. 

10 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

And yet it's happened. Not saying the GFS will be correct (especially at this range, good golly), but highs can and do move out if their upper level support leaves. I can't count the number of times we've had a marginal wintry even or just very cold rain due to CAD that quickly leaves as a storm moves up the apps.

WidreMann,

If that banana stays entrenched the way it is depicted (which we both know as the event gets closer, Cad is normally underdone) there is no way the 18z gfs taken at face value will come to fruition. The GFS countless times is notorious for doing this. It is also an outlier at present when it comes to the globals, so for now we toss. Now if the high placement or the positioning is off then yes obviously your scenario could def come back to the drawing board with this. I know both of us hope we get absolutely creamed with this. It’s been a rough couple of years for snow lovers. 

2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

GFS is coming way north with the initial low, just absolutely plowing into the banana high lol

Completely 1000% a discount at this point. GFS is notorious for doing this. There is no way the low is going to pile drive a banana high setup that way. Idk the flaw in the GFS model or why it has the tendency to do this but it is a staple with systems like this for GFS to eventually correct itself. Could it be showing a miller b rather than a southeast slider? Absolutely a plausible scenario. Regardless as others have mentioned the high is in a classic setup to provide positive results if you are a winter weather fan.

For whatever it is worth EPS mean at 192 has the low sitting off east of Wilmington. All I can see though based on Tropical Tidbits. I know other folks in here have better means to access. 

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thought I'd bring this great post over from the Philly thread...very interesting theory! Thoughts?

This is gold! Great post.

I love seeing the upper jet streak, promoting the fetch straight out of the gulf on that one! There’d be no shortage of qpf problems with this one, regardless of precip type. 

Just now, BristowWx said:

Try brother.  It’s easier on the soul if you keep your excitement burn like kerosene vs. gasoline.  There are many bumps ahead on this road.  Like others I have seen things turn south just a day or two before showtime. 

I’m just glad to see the euro not holding anything back like it’s notorious in doing so. Euro used to be (used to be long the keyword) deadly in 5-7 day time frame and it would be nice to see it right obv in this instance. 

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Starting to be confident it will snow next weekend.  No ideas beyond that.  That’s a win for sure!

So hard to keep my excitement in check with this one. This one is screaming big dog to me.

Looks like Euro would track from between Columbus/Albany GA to off of Hatteras. Freakin great track! Ejects the system out a lot quicker than the GFS does and keeps it our southern solution. Anytime Euro shows lows eject correctly out of the southwest instead of holding back it is onto something. Pretty good consistency for days now as well. 

10 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

I'm a little concerned of the HP only at around 1021.

The main takeaway my friend is that you have the players on the table that you need and the recipe to induce a winter storm for some of the viewing area. Multiple models are showing viable solutions and that’s all you can ask for at 7-8 day leeway. Cold and everything else will follow, especially with antecedent conditions and any one of the solutions such as a southern slider or a miller b secondary, where the low level cold gets locked in. 

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GEFS still different from the OP. Widespread Winter Storm. 

GEFS mean has low south of Charleston at hr198 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under.  Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo. 

Yea FV3 def better than OP GFS, where it drives the primary into eastern Missouri and then pops the secondary just off Myrtle, locking in the low level cold.