Buddy1987

1 hour ago, SVA_SN said:

6z rgem has the heavy snow in the same area as the 00z but even higher totals! 

Another SVA guy. What a run for 0z and now 6z purposes! Euro shifts heavier qpf up our way and now the FV3 has followed suit on the 6z that is just coming out. The NAM, RGEM and Canadian are absolute crush jobs for northern NC and VA. Speaking of Canadian, 6z is even a tick west of 0z. Looks like the low goes over CHS and MYR, as well as Hatteras and then slows between 45-48hrs.

@BornAgain13 lmfao! Bro don’t even look at the CMC total snowfall  it’s like 30” for you

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

The GFS just continues to still look different from the others and its much quicker. It comes and goes.

It’s the timing. Exactly what it is. Of course a 200 mile difference is going to affect the surface depiction. Hence why we say bye bye Jan 1.

0z Canadian just out. Holds serve on bringing beefier precip up into northern areas.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039

Just now, Poimen said:

FV3 has lowered it's qpf some...but still pretty beefy. I'm guessing this is close 1.5" in the Triad, which is in line with other guidance, except the GFS. 

@wncsnow @BornAgain13 looks like FV3 made incremental steps toward a wetter solution once again for southern VA. Good area of 1” qpf now showing up. Very good sign.

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Whoa, it's like 200 miles east of the NAM

Yea for real! And the RGEM and the ICON. Either all 3 of those are smoking something good or the GFS is up to its usual bs ways. FV3 has been behaving more like the first 3 models.

The system slowing down is having huge implications on being able to make somewhat of a northward trek up toward hatteras and that is why the gfs looks so much different imo. I’m thinking ultimate track is CHS to MYR to Hatteras and then east from there when the confluence shuts it down.

Old GFS is out there on its own with the speed of the system. Hauling ass by hr24, whereas some of the other models discussed are well to the west of where the GFS has the LP.

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z RGEM Buries Southern and SW VA with 12-20" of Snow 

Funny thing is man the track was fairly similar to 18z, just expanded the snow shield and spread the wealth so to speak. 

If the low traverses near Myrtle and up to Hatteras it’s a perfect track for us. 

0z RGEM another northern system. Does a miller b like transfer to CHS and heads up the coast to the outer banks. Heavy heavy snows northernmost NC/mountains and foothills and all of southern VA. Double digit totals throughout that whole region. 

10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Sure seems like it’s NAM and the Canadian models against UKMet / GFS / Euro regarding the southern fringe temps and the northern extent of the precip shield - 2 disparate camps 

For what it’s worth ICON has been rock steady as well. 0z still has it CHS to MYR. Heavy snows Greensboro, Winston Salem, Mt Airy and on up into ROA. CLT looks to be a rain sounding if the ICON comes to fruition.

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

For a hint of what may lie ahead in terms of incredible moisture, as of 9 pm CST, here are a few precipitation totals in Texas:

Houston: 2.55" (heavy rain was still falling)
Huntsville: 3.79" (heavy rain was still falling)
Palacios: 3.42"

Great post Don!

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

So Buddy what your suggestion is the 3k should have better handle 5H placements and thermo profiles better than 12k. Is that right

Yes that would be my assumption with it. It had a great track once it got going east of Savannah but then played hop scotch over the Atlantic lol! That should promote some form of southeast flow with that track and at least aid in lift for a little. Honestly if I got 8” I’d be tickled. 

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

The exit angle heading, will affect yall as far as qpf and Brick in regards to waa alot. Its a royal back yard snow rumble between the shenandoah crowd and the triangle snow hole crowd.

I can’t even do a pbp for the 3k. That low is jumping around like a darn hot potato. Taken at face value I would def take it for my area.

2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Is the 3k lower resolution than 12 k, which one is more trustworthy from past expierence. Use to just have the eta, now its 3k 12k y2k lol.

3k is your best bet in these instances. Which speaking of I was about to post the 34hr 3k has the low just a little further north up in southeastern AL/Panhandle of FL. Great moisture influx streaming up the Appalachians and into NC. Looks like snow for sure most of NC (CLT) included. 1034 HP sitting west of Harrisburg, PA.

48hrs ends up pretty similar to 18z with low placement. Just off the coast of the outer banks. Pressure down to 996. Finger of moisture extends back over southern VA.

42 hrs looks more like the 12z run. More east northeast with the low compared to 18z. 18z was down by CHS, 0z is east southeast of MYR and not scraping the coastline this go around.

36 has the low over Savannah. 1033mb high (1mb weaker than 18z) situated over the Scranton/Pocono Mountains region. Heavy snow  foothills of NC/ entering SW VA. Mix further south. CLT would look like rain, although I don’t have a sounding to verify.

low is moving along just a little faster than 18z

Just now, ajr said:

Sorry I’m catching up here, but what are we making of this terrible 18z NAM run? We tossing?

Depends on what your feelings are regarding verification scores with the RGEM and CMC? Both support the higher totals more north right now. GFS made a slight bump north with the precip. Is it a trend or just a slight adjustment? I know most the players will be on the playing field come 0z runs. Should predominantly nail everything down then. 

18z Canadian remains formidable. Tracks the low directly over Charleston it looks like (those maps are always difficult). From there has it as a 993 sitting over Hatteras at hr 60 (in line with most of the high res models from 18z).

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gemglb&run=18&stn=PNM&hh=060&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Struggling to find differences between 18z GFS and 12z run through 24 hours. Not succeeding. 

GFS extending the idea of a much more precip loaded western/northwestern side of the storm at 36

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

RGEM Kuchera 

Still snowing past that time frame as well up our way at least.

Looks like there’s a consensus forming here on the 18z models thus far. RGEM, NAM and ICON all have the low paralleling the coast up toward the outer banks now and one would suspect that the 18z CMC once it comes out would show something similar. 

Jesus ICON just sits off Hatteras for hours and barely moves.

Just now, burrel2 said:

Rgem doubles down on the warmer/amped solution.

ICON also juiced up at 36 run still ongoing on TT

Just off the 18z nam runs but it makes me feel like my whole theory behind the fact that these lows tend to favor traveling along the Gulf Stream may end up coming to fruition. This is obv one run and it’s not the best model in the world but it wouldn’t be shocking if this is the ultimate outcome track wise. I guess something in the atmosphere is relaxing today to let this thing climb a little more up the coast.