Buddy1987

2 minutes ago, JoshM said:

FV3 said "WAIT GUYS, I STILL HAVE THE SNOW!"

 

FV3 is a thing of beauty and has been for multiple model runs now. It as well has gone more toward the miller b scenario. Has the primary die in northern AL with secondary off SC coast and then go N/NE from there.

2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

FV3 looks similar to 18z at 500mb out to 120

Southern Vort stronger. Taller ridge in pna region but nothing way different yet

 

 

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Concur with this. HP over the Midwest is situated a little further north and west compared to 18z is the only negligible difference I see thus far. 

I’m sorry but for me I don’t buy the 0z gfs whatsoever. It is still doing something odd with the low pressure as it’s around the SC coast. It still has the tendency to want to get the low to accelerate rapidly toward the blob of convection out in the Atlantic. Idk if I buy the sharp cutoff of precip the way it is portraying it as well. I am curious to see if the FV3 follows the Ukie/CMC suite tonight with the turn back toward miller b scenario. Very fascinating to track this storm at this juncture. 

GFS with its typical warm bias when it comes to cad events me thinks but face value it is significantly warmer than most runs previous. 

Yup! 132 GFS has banana high pressures situated. The high north of the area is progged a couple mb’s weaker comparing to 18z, whereas it was at 1038 and now at 1034. Low is north and east of 18z position. Let’s see where it goes here.

Does anyone have any verification scores for how the FV3 has performed wrt scoring coupes?

3 minutes ago, Wow said:

It's actually very similar to the 12z GFS with the track close to the coast

I was referencing comparing it to the 18z gfs and the 12z euro being a lot different.

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes much

FV3 is a crush job at least for my direct area. Great track from CHS to Hatteras. Been fairly consistent as well. Anyone know about it’s verification scores since it’s inception?

18z FV3 is worlds difference compared to some of the other models. More north yet still plenty cold for a bunch. Takes low from CHS to Hatteras. 

1 minute ago, griteater said:

The wave closes off beautifully again on the GFS...it's a slow crawler with extended snows in E TN, upstate, and central-west NC

The confluence isn’t as pronounced this run up north and should’ve allowed the storm to come a little further north this go around, albeit it is the 18z gfs we are talking about.

GFS is doing something wonky with the low at 168. It’s like it has convective feedback issues and has it haul ass from 162-168, like it is trying to have the low over that area of convection well off the coast.

1 minute ago, Wow said:

Overall similar setup just further N with the sfc low .. better precip shield extending from NC to KS

Looks like s/w trended a little stronger and north. Maybe the reasoning behind mixing even up my way at the onset due to warmer mid levels infiltrating resulting from less confluence. I really believe until the Euro has the support it’s the outlier as of right now.

18z gfs has snow developing at 144 over NW SC/SW NC. Let’s see where she goes from here. 18z is slightly northeast of its 12z position at this time frame.

Until the GFS caves to the Euro solution, imo it’s GFS, Ukie, FV3, Canadian vs Euro. 

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thank you! I'm guessing that's around 9-10" of snow?

I’m guessing a little more bc of ratios with the temps that cold. I believe last I looked they were running in the low to mid 20s. Face value it’d be a solid storm and I would take it in a heartbeat if it’s gonna be squish city.

Guys what model has performed better as of late GFS or Euro? Looks like it’s a battle between the two with the Canadian looking more like the gfs at this juncture.

What about the stj and subsequent tapping of gulf moisture? The gulf looks to be wide open on this one. I would think the northern shield would end up looking much better come verification time, even if it were suppressed city. 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seriously, s/w is better, west ridge is better, the northern s/w phases  right at the right moment to stall it at the coast. It’s just the confluence is supersized. No way I buy that on December 9.

Is the snow cover that widespread and banked up in Eastern Canada right now to allow serious cold like that to bleed down? I could see like mid January but I agree 12/9? 

2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

When making statements about certain models, please try to post the link or image you are referring to. That is, if you can post the image legally.
This will help folks be able save or bookmark links for models.



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I’m on my phone when I view these things thus why I can’t.

@168 Low is east of CHS

2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

12z Euro is a lot colder than yesterday (at 850) and colder than the GFS. Makes sense since the trend is to have a stronger cold shot coming in late week.

Euro def has some serious cold building in at 144 from the NE, with a 1039 HP over Iowa. This storm has been intriguing to track at the minimum. 

FV3 and Euro are not that far off from one another with LP placement at 144. Euro just a tick faster. 

3 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

I wouldn't be concerned either if I were in Salem! I worded that wrong. I guess what I was trying to say was instead of a hostile WEATHER PATTERN, it's a hostile timeframe on the models. It's almost time for them to drop it completely, cause mass panic and pick it back up in 24 hours.  

I think you’re gonna be just fine as well man, especially with that HP anchored right to our north. Gonna have good antecedent conditions for this one. 

@Jonathan I gotta agree with @WidreMann on that one it really isn’t that hostil meteorologically speaking. You have a low that traverses across the country in the southern stream with confluence up top basically dictating how far north and south this thing goes. The models have moved away from the miller b scenario and are honing in on a miller a scenario in its place. The trend over the next few days is to see if the confluence is modeled too weak or too strong. I am beginning to get that sense as others have alluded to that regardless a good majority are going to get a healthy front end thump, which I’m more than ok with, as that is when we have our best storms. Comes in like a darn wall. 

Canadian if no one posted is a classic WNC/VA snowstorm track, pending 850s. Seems to me we are trending more toward a miller a with the models.