Buddy1987

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

That's about a perfect track for my area.... wow

Would I be fringed up here you think man with a track like that? I worry the dry air would inhibit from northern extent reaching me, as you know the dewpoints are gonna be dry as heck.

Euro is definitely slower than the gfs and some of the other models. Slowest of the group in getting this storm in here. That’s another factor to fine tune 

GEFS is def further south and east of the OP. On my phone and at work so don’t have pictures but at its closest approach it goes from Jacksonville FL to southeast of Myrtle and then east from there.

I will say for the MA peeps the gfs is continuing to suffer from convective feedback issues, specifically at 132-138. If that energy up in Maine/Canada relaxes, the HP around Toronto should be far enough to the northwest to allow the system to ride up the coast more so and allow you guys to get in the action. Just my two cents.

96 hr FV3 gfs similar to 6z same time frame with low placement. HP sliding a little better along with the system to the north 1mb stronger

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its letting that northern s/w drop into the southern wave. If that trend continues it should amp up more and climb the coast with more cold air pouring into the western part of the board.

Haha good minds think alike! Posted simultaneously

Gfs still experiencing the convective feedback issues we alluded to yesterday between 132-138. Has the low do a jump toward the convection out in the Atlantic. The way the high is positioned up near Toronto, that should’ve allowed the storm to come more north/northeast and been better for the mid Atlantic as well in my opinion. Overall crushing run, albeit more inland than some people will like. I will say in events like these, if you have borderline temps and heavy precip falling, you could be in for a surprise on the line 

Just now, pbrown85 said:

So I have seen people talk about the NAM at this range not being accurate, then some people saying that it does a great job with the temp profiles in these situations? Is the NAM to be believed with it showing the cold getting down to upstate SC or are people just hugging the NAM because it shows the temps we need?

Surface wise I would not trust it with low pressure setup, etc.. that far out , however the Nam is able to see low level processes that relate directly to topography and ageostrophic events, I.e. CAD, damming of cold air and effective funneling processes that occur. I have seen it many times be correct in events such as these. NAM is probably the biggest tool you could use for CAD events in my opinion. Even when I lived in the northeast, the NAM would be more or less way ahead of the curve when it came to ice storm setups because of the tools it has built into it. So no it is not a farce in my opinion when it shows dewpoints the way it does right now. 

3 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Wow. South VA dp’s in the low teens..looks good to me 

Ratios for the win!

What strikes me the most this morning as I’ve finally been able to go through the panels, along with the pages on the board here is the NAM’s low level cold compared to the other models. The dew point difference is night and day between it and the gfs. Obv if some of the folks on here are not aware, the NAM’s superiority is by far #1 when tracking events such as these. It’s low level resolution allows it to sniff cad out. If I were a betting man, regardless of where the low moves in its final stages, that cad is going to be a cold dome and extremely hard to dislodge. As we get closer, it will be interesting to say the least on what effect the banana high and/or HP up in northern New England have on us. Stay tuned!

3 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

Yep FV3 has be very consistent for at least 2 days


.

You’d have to think with the banana high setup and a 1037 up in northern New England the cad would most likely be underdone at this point

FV3 is another bombs away! Helped by a 1034 HP sitting up top in Lake Placid NY. Big run for VA/NC

the damn thing stalls between 138-150. This is going to be some prolific snowfall totals on this run good lord!!

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

 

Sizeable shift north with the heavier snow no?? Up into northern VA now.

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Holy hell...a view of upper level divergence for the ages on that GFS run

Moisture transport would be stupid with that look across the board.

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

During times of tracking winter storms,  I seem to lose sleep looking at weather models.... man it's worth it though!

Oh absolutely! Especially when you have to freakin wait 20min for the FV3 to load 6 hour increments 

Canadian is amped and much further northwest. Have to watch this closely. Has the low traverse from around CLT up into Richmond.

Just now, ILMRoss said:

A thought on this... There's a lot of convective feedback off the coast here... Look at the pattern of the pressure contours! I think the models are going to have a LOT of trouble with this, especially the GFS, which seemed especially prone to botching this kind of stuff during our early January storm this past winter. This screwy representation has a lot of implications, especially with moisture transport. Check out how dry NC is here! I think we trend wetter in this particular instance, especially once convection allowing models get in the game. 

Thank you sir!! I’ve been highlighting this for a couple days now. The low does this wonky let me jump on over to the convection blob and has for multiple model runs on the OP.

Only thing I take away is the northwestern side of storm precip wise is not as expansive as 18z but that would be corrected closer to game time. Also timing is just a tick faster with everything. Good run for the NC peeps. 

@102 HP 1mb stronger and low pressure is moving a little faster, comparing to 18z at same time frame.

8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

New GFS clown map might be silly but then again so the EUROs output.

Not sure if you’re familiar with the orographic processes around here but southeasterly upslope up against the mountains creates a ton of lift and enhances rain or snow, depending on the season. Even if it were overdone it’s still mightily impressive. 

1 minute ago, griteater said:

18z GFS - wave coming in a bit farther south, into baja.  Slightly better cold press out front out to 93

Grit, I feel like the gfs is notorious for burying these lows ungodly amounts only to correct toward the end. Not saying this will happen here but it is highly suspect to me. On the flip side, the gfs usually is underdone with cad and high pressure systems to the north. Catch 22 right now what to believe with the soon to be phased out gfs.

7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I know it is the NAM... BUT...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120318&fh=84

I understand it’s the nam as well but there are some things you can look at with the nam to give you an idea of what it’s doing vs some of the other models. Most know the nam always tends to over amp things. It’ll be telling if the nam is over amped or is the southern outlier and will give a better insight as to what this beast is going to do.

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are two camps within the EPS. One brings it up (some even become rain and snow into central PA) and a camp that suppressed. SW va is good on both so yea the mean looks great there. 

Gotta say I’m impressed with some of the numbers the Euro is spitting out for my area. Would be nuts man! 

Been saying it for days the old GFS is putrid putting it nicely. Wouldn’t put much stock into it. FV3 CMC and EURO are going to lead the charge on this one.

10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

ICON seems to be out on its own island.

Are you referencing because of its depiction or warmth or both? I mean it’s def a plausible outcome at this range. It’s track isn’t far off from any of the major models. It is by far the warmest of anyone however. It has the HP originally in northern New England but has it exit stage before precip really ever gets here.