Buddy1987

Just now, burgertime said:

Makes a hecka of a lot of sense. Those kickers have come to bite us in the past on a few storms. 

Man I can’t remember how many times it has come down to these coming onshore and all of a sudden there’s some pretty significant swings. Not saying it’s def going to happen but something to keep in the back of our minds. 

2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Yeah, has a noticeable impact on dewpoints -- running a couple degrees warmer through NC and Va. All background noise unless it turns into a trend. 

HP actually strengthens considerably out to 75 to a 1041 parked in southeastern MN. LP placement still relatively similar to 6z position.

Just glancing at the nam at 57 here. LP placement looks to be the same when comparing it to 6z although HP up in Iowa is 2mb weaker. See if that has an effect on where the low goes toward the end of the run. 

This is gold guys! ORH Wxman is amazing with this stuff when I lived up in the northeast still. Compliments to @North Balti Zen for posting in mid atl forum as well. Here’s the discussion:

This makes so much sense - see below, I guess all options are open.

Maybe at long leads we expect too much from the models, even in this day and age IMHO. 

I brought this over from the New England forum, thanks @ORH_wxman .   

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The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. 

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. 

The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. 

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. 

11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

This looks more like a slider to me than Miller b

Yea the models have been going back and forth on this, most notably the FV3 and the Canadian. They are more so the hybrids of a bonafide miller b however. I think in the end we see the slider but I do believe once the n/s energy gets better sampled the end result will be more phasing and interaction between the two streams. 

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

FV3 is ok now that I can see it! 

Yea TT def displays it a lot better. Does that weird ass loop at the end of the storm where it has it loop back in over the outer banks after initially forming south of Wilmington and east of MYR. 

FV3 almost wanting to go back to the miller b esque scenario. Low into eastern Alabama then the secondary takes over east of MYR and south of Wilmington. Then does a weird loop and loops back in over the outer banks. Plenty cold as well is the FV3 

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Dang Canadian is almost a carbon copy of the GFS track wise although 850s are def colder comparing it to GFS. I feel like this is what the nam would look like if it had the capability to run this far out and show a fair depiction of where the winter weather would set up. 

Still a hell of a setup for a winter storm for almost all of NC, at least front end wise. Nothing to be grumpy about imo. No 30” totals but still for early December standards take it. 

Just now, WidreMann said:

Worst run of the day for central NC. I think the inability of the high to really build in, and for the storm to dig far enough south is hurting our chances. Since the GFS doesn't seem to be converging on anything, I'll just throw this one on the pile and wait for 10 more runs.

Yea to lend credence to your statement the damn thing has been all over the place and is out of touch with some of the other guidance. It’s def a plausible scenario at this point however. Main takeaway is it distances itself from the continuation of adjusting south like other guidance did earlier. I can’t same I really trust the ICON for whatever reason. 

Big run incoming at 108-114 for NC/SW VA. Low sitting over MYR at 114. Snow entering DC/Balt area. The high hauled a** out of there this go around allowing the storm to inch up the coast. 

Just now, Lookout said:

i pretty much had the exact same thought in my head...the differences at 925mb for example between it and the nam are something over the carolinas. At hour 78 for example, nam has northerly flow and 925mb temps 5c colder while the gfs has southwesterly flow at 925mb over the carolinas. Nam is about 4mb higher with surface pressures over the mid atlantic than the gfs at 84 hours. 

We def know brother how that plays out in the end. The nam kicks the gfs a** all day in that regard. 

@102, LP is ever so slightly a little north and east of 18z position, in and around the Destin, FL region. HP looks to have slid just slightly eastward as well compared to 18z. Heavy snows NC mountains and northern tier of NC zones, beginning to enter SW VA. 

Cant get a much better HP placement as you see on the 84hr image if you want snow in NC. 1038 parked on the IN/OH border.

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Faster and further north

I deleted cause it’s like it auto corrected at 84 and is in line with the 18z LP placement wise. Qpf shield is more expansive on the northern side of the storm however. 

18z FV3 and 0z NAM are fairly similar in regards to low placement at 84 on nam and 90 on fv3 respectively. Precip is much more expansive on the northern side of the system however on nam, noticeably for TX and OK. If that continued to translate that would be good for the northern areas of the board to ensure the precip would make it this far north. But yes for a board as a whole overall, you have to love the evolution of the low placement.

The trajectory of the precip @75 on the nam just looks awesome. Looks like it’s about to go nuclear.

34 minutes ago, high risk said:

          The mageval.ncep.noaa.gov is the site for parallel versions of models.     If you click on GFS, you get the parallel GFS, which is the FV3GFS.    If you don't believe me, check out the 12z 'GFS' on mageval and compare it to the TT FV3GFS plots.

    

 

Appreciate the response. I didn’t realize I needed to open the parallel version. Learn something new everyday.

Just now, high risk said:

 

    go ahead and check for yourself.     It's clearly listed as the 18z run on 12/4.      It clearly ran, and that's the NCEP site which can plot it directly from the files on the supercomputer.   There is clearly some issue with the other sites that have to download the data.

My brain cells must be warped today bc I’ve been on there and I don’t see anything labeled the FV3. Only NAM, GFS, GEFS and the normal models. 

2 minutes ago, Disc said:

I wouldn't quite say that. We are one of the few areas that doesn't actually mix.

Man this thing destroys us now from 126-138 as it stalls off NC weird run

Just now, Disc said:

I wouldn't quite say that. We are one of the few areas that doesn't actually mix.

It saved face at 126. The low is rapidly taking off east of MYR

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm with you. Better riding in the miss valley but NS is more suppressive in New England. 

Hell this run sucks ass even for me down in ROA

Man I take that back. 1037 HP up in Ohio shunting this thing even further south thus far.

Just now, Wow said:

GFS is slower with the southern s/w progression, closer to Euro

Does slower help this thing phase with the n/s s/w in your opinion down the line here? 

18z GFS has the high shifting westward rather than moving along with the precip. That may open the door for the low to move a little further north this go around. 

1 minute ago, griteater said:

It will sound weenie-ish, but the stronger the southern wave, the slower it will likely track...and the models tend to underestimate a healthy wave like this

So essentially the comma head will be more expansive in your opinion when the time frame gets closer because of the strength and magnitude of this thing?