Buddy1987

FV3 drives the primary into eastern Missouri before it pops the secondary just off Myrtle. Good cad signature prior to the storm. Wintry mix for portions of northern NC and snowy look for mountains before changeover and then up into SW VA and further north. 

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z GFS looks pretty terrible 

The GFS smoked crack before it ran. It’s ridiculous how much it jumps around like a floppy fish out of water. It should be completely discounted right now based on other model guidance. 

Need JI right now to tell us how much the GFS sucks b*lls. 

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure what it means for next weekend but at 150 the GFS is really digging our energy into the Baja.

Imo GFS being the GFS wrt constantly overdoing it. We all know Euro’s problems with holding back energy. GFS is opposite and always overdoes the plowing of lows into Mexico and Cuba lol.

44 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

06z GEFS Mean Definitely went up. 

I like this post because rather than looking at any individual GFS or Euro or FV3 run the mean ensembles of these suites will paint the picture and right now the picture being painted is a great one for a lot imo! 

EE rule for next weekend? Haven’t said that in awhile.

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The Western Atlantic Ridge continues to overperform. 

Summer or winter that thing is pesky as hell and always under modeled imo. Good point to bring up. Ride the Euro d-10 like the town bicycle for the time being. 

31/18 here. 29 with a little more elevation. I’m sure Disc up in Blacksburg is already in the upper 20’s. I smell an over performer. 

34/20 down in ROA. This has the feel like it did for you guys last go around. 

22 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

35/22 Hoping on a little IP/ZR tonight!

34/20. Hoping to wake up to a good glaze. It’s legit cold out today. 

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll be in western CT over the holiday. Would love to have temps in the teens and hopefully a few snow flurries to create the perfect setting.

What part of Western CT Bob? Litchfield County or Fairfield County area? 

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

12z FV3 and 18z GFS start to tease us with an early December threat.  Obviously well supported by the pattern. 

I’ve been watching that period myself! Hoping it comes to fruition. This has been wild to start the close proximity of winter off on the right foot. Been a long time. 

32/31. Wet and soggy! 

20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

39/27 

Going to call it a night and set an alarm for 2:30 a.m. and see what's happening. Roommate might hate me but this what he gets, lol. 

I feel you big dawg! 39/29 a lot warmer than I thought myself here. It was sprinkling already when I last checked outside. 

20 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Really shocked you’re at 42. I’m already at 38 down here. 

I will say the 0z nam nest and the HRRR is looking good up this way at least. Will be interesting if I am awoken by pingers later on.

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Really shocked you’re at 42. I’m already at 38 down here. 

I am as well. I’ve checked multiple times on accuweather and then wunderground for some weather stations around my neighborhood. Closest one just went from 42 to 40 within like the last 15 min but still that gets us nowhere close to where I thought we would be. 

I’m not usually Mr negative. But right now I smell big bust for most of the area including all the way up my way. I’m currently at 42/29. Based on wet bulb my temp only gets down to 37. I’m not sure if I’m missing something, as I am all over this stuff constantly but to me thus far the CAD is over modeled. Anyone have anything different to add?

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

It's not binary (as in strongly negative vs. slightly negative).  We like to use it as a general measure of wintry potential.  And it's fine to do that in a "general" sense.  But it's a lot more complicated when you get down to the details of a winter storm.  West vs. East-based, strength, change in strength, change in sign, orientation of the block, are all dynamic variables that matter.  You can get a big storm or a big bust with any combination of those, as there are other big pattern drivers acting at the same time.  But generally, a -NAO is what we want.  The rest of it becomes a game day decision.

That’s actually a great explanation of this. Very detailed. Thanks for that man!

I personally worry about it being strongly negative though, referencing the NAO. My interpretation is it needs to be slightly to moderately negative to be on the money, however I would much rather have it in the negative than positive, which we have had to deal with almost every winter. Beggers can’t be choosers. 

2 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Starting to get worried about sleet around here in Asheville. 3km NAM is even colder a 850mb. Surface temps look to stay in the low 30’s per NAM, but RGEM is colder. Will all depend on how deep the frozen layer is above your house. If you are getting sleet, it’s cold enough and deep enough to re-freeze the precipitation. If you by chance have snow, then your 700mb temps are not warm enough to initially melt the precipitation. If your surface temps are below freezing but it’s raining, the frozen layer is not deep enough to re-freeze the precip. I am very interested to see how this unfolds.

I feel like the surface maps the last couple runs of the NAM nest have warmed and the HP system is sliding a little too fast to the east than what would be ideal. Should we take into account the fact that models usually tend to erode the CAD too quickly in this instance? 

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

00z RGEM 2-3 hours of sleet for DC before rain...I’ll take.  Switches most of the sub forum to rain Thursday afternoon...favored areas hang on the longest obviously.  

I will say the RGEM is very ominous down this way and has been run on run due to it coming in at an optimal time and really both the 3k and 12k are as well. I have that gut feeling this thing overperforms for a lot of folks here. 

Is it me or did the 0z NAM nest (3k, 12k, 32k) look a little less significant for the NC mountains? Seems to have shifted a little bit more north and doesn’t have that extended icing. 0z RGEM is a whole other beast and is almost a carbon copy of its 18z predecessor. I really believe the RGEM always tends to overdo the CAD setups but not to say it’s never been spot on either. Some form of a blend naturally seems in order. I just never trust the GFS in these setups because it doesn’t have the low level superiority the NAM does to sniff these things out a little better.

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean the NAM has to be right just once right? What a beatdown out here. 

At least it has a lot of backing. Fv3 is cash money as well lol. RGEM is the most impressive I just worry about it’s cold bias from last year.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nam3k looks sleetbomb:(

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yes thickness is killing us.  It would have been a snow bomb at 540

This time of year for me I take what I get. We’re normally in freakin flip flops and look forward to what January is going to bring at this point of the year the last couple years at least. 

3k and 12k nam are a complete disaster for the entire 81 corridor. Never flips over up this way. I feel like it spares most of northwestern NC and the mountains this go around.