Buddy1987

FV3 and Canadian are much closer to the coastline of SC and look to be in good agreement with placement there. 

@AsheCounty48 Canadian is a much bigger beast for us and has the low tucked closer to the coast. 

I can speak from a couple instances up my way this year when CAD was overdone so just a word of caution when investing all your feelings in a final solution, with one especially being close to 60 hours away. I had a winter storm warning this year for a 1/2” of ice. Cloud cover moved in and we were able to get down to 32 but by that time it was already raining heavily. They were forecasting 30. Meanwhile @Disc over about 20 miles to my west was 29 and heavy ice in the mountains of Blacksburg. Just play the cards you are dealt. There will be plenty more this year for all of us worst case scenario.

Folks will hopefully have access to pics soon as I’m sorry I don’t but the FV3 is still Uber wet across the entire area. The cutoff up in central VA with the precip is just straight insane. 1-2” qpf totals across all of VA/NC/SC. 

Just now, Queencitywx said:

FV3 Just started coming in. It should be done by time Army/Navy kicks off this weekend 

Being on a phone and trying to view it on the NCEP page is next to impossible but to my naked eye the 0z run looks fairly similar to 18z. Don’t quote me though.

2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Big improvement on Canadian. Makes the Miller B transfer after more eastward and less northward progression of the low. Allows CAD to establish deeper south.  

The Canadian is a snow bomb for northern NC and a lot of VA wow!! Hr 90 it would be ripping absolute fatties. 

Close to 3 ft of snow northern foothills lmao!

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

yeah wow, the GFS is looking much like the FV3 on the backside wave dropping in...who knows how strong that precip will be, but an impressive evolution this far south

1 minute ago, Lookout said:

yeah precip redevelops with it too...

That could be a very very interesting development if it were to somehow get a hold of the southern stream low a little earlier. I still think it’s a very real possibility at this juncture. 

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

It sure looks like the Northern Stream is wave is going to drop in and prolong the precip more this run

You would think the low off the coast with the northern stream dropping in wouldn’t make the low rocket east like that. 

@78 the secondary low off SC coast looks like it would want to form just a little closer to the coast, as you can see the precip maxima tucked in ever so slightly.

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Hard to find any meaningful changes through 54 hours vs 18z. 

I don’t see any myself. Precip shield and LP placement all look similar.

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

The ICON, which has no knowledge of CAD, has trended back south.  Gives the mtns a real shellacking. 

I was reviewing it after my first post and it has a very odd surface depiction wrt qpf. Big dry slot in SC and up into the CLT area, right when the low is taking off the coast of SC.

Icon is essentially a swing and a miss for all of VA now at 0z. Barely gets any precip up this way. @90 it has light to moderate snow coming in from the southwest up this way. That cold is serious! 

1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

Thru 48, DPs are lower across east, but HP is a little weaker. Upper levels are similar (tempwise). Probably not anything important.

Nam just slightly further north with the LP at 51 but that doesnt mean anything imo this early in the run. 

1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Much lighter precip in W NC and S VA this time around.

It’s the gfs struggling bc of the convection flare up off the coast. Guarantee you once that is resolved it’ll be one hell of a comma head showing up.

GFS blowing up all the convection around the low pressure this run at 96 off the coast. Always have to watch for the convective feedback where it won’t properly portray what the main precip field will look like but that is still some time away. Main takeaway is getting the details down of cad, LP placement etc before we get into that. 

Great cad signature showing up with that 1035 HP setting up shop in Lake Placid, NY to funnel the cold down. Big snows breaking out for NC/SVA. Low now off East of Savannah, south of CHS.

1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

at 84 its about identical to 12z

Yea LP placement it looks identical. Looks to also be transferring off CHS as well at that juncture

18z gfs at 66 has the high sliding east a little bit faster than I think some would want to see. 12z has it in Ohio, 18z has it over WV/NW VA at that point. 

Icon is a crush job for foothills and SVA on 18z. Has low sliding by MYR and up toward outer banks. Beginning to think from a consensus standpoint outer banks or just a little south from there will be the track. The Gulf Stream debate could be had for where the lows like to travel when they get to that area.

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Well boys and gals I'm off until 00z Euro. See ya on the PBP! 

Cya man! My parents are actually on vacation in Amsterdam right now. Talk to you soon

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Why do they bother wasting what I would assume are scarce computational resources in running a model so far outside of its effective domain?

I honestly have no clue. Above my pay grade. A Met would be the one to ask. 

7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Looking over on the southernwx site, someone just posted the RGEM and its ensembles... Several have the HP at 1042-1043mb...

RGEM is wayyyyyy our of its range and I would caution you that it is always one of the colder models, sometimes overdoes the cold.

3 minutes ago, ajr said:

The southeast trend is real folks - you heard it here first

No in all reality though you can see the enhanced precip in between CHS and MYR. That should be our new low popping

12z Icon is very similar to its 6z counterpart. Low tracks from just off the coasts of CHS and MYR and up to a position just off the outer banks. HP looks to be sliding off to the east however a little quicker than most would like.

2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Confluence on the new nam over new england is the best it's looked yet. It delays the high pressure building a little compared to last run, but leaves more cold air to work with overall.

I am very curious what the final outcome of this darn confluence is going to be. It’s been going back and forth.