Buddy1987

I will not get overly invested.. I will not overly get invested.. I will not overly get invested.. I tell myself this time and time again and I’m a sucker for winter storms and tracking of systems.

Last couple model runs of the GFS/GGEM/NAM are showing some icing potential for 81 corridor on Thursday with the lead wave. 0Z GFS actually spits out some respectable numbers.

My lord it wouldn’t be the first freakin time.. I was thinking the same thing.

I held out some hope after recent memory had the GFS dethroning EURO last winter. This sucks but what are you gonna do..

What a damn shame

The PNA concerns me by the end of the run however unless someone corrects me. Much more flat rather than tall like the gfs. There’s so many dang pieces in this setup…

12z Nam is really not all that much different from what I can see at HR63, comparing it to the 6z Gfs. The s/w is a little more aggressive in wanting to dig if I had to pick something there.

Honestly don’t feel good about it.. time and time again it never fails. The least snowiest model always rules around our forum. I’m hoping we get lucky and for the most part the GFS/Ensembles have been very consistent but a lot of the other models I feel like people are pulling at straws. I was one of them. Not gonna lose hope but kinda speaking the truth here so I don’t get let down like usual.

Yea agreed sloppy phase. Very odd evolution. The naysayers and the Debbie downers are starting to rear their ugly heads. Let’s hope 12z at least provides a little clarity one way or the other. I did see where the s/w is coming over Alaska tonight they’ve been doing launches for data purposes and that is supposed to be ingested into the 0z models tonight. This is where the models are deviating from one another due to the strength of that s/w. Euro keeps it more consolidated vs gfs has it start to stretch to where downstream we all see it more east of the euro and the other models showing cutter scenarios.

Nice qpf bump on 0Z GEFS. 0Z 18Z

the ensembles are what i'm looking to hear about because they have been in disagreement with the op

Canadian is a joke. It's own ensembles have been laughing at the OP.. that h5 is going to produce one hell of a storm if it's still showing something remotely close as we get to Sunday night time frame and start to hone in on specifics.

The amount of scenarios revolving around flatulence today is making me laugh audibly. @HKY_WX warned earlier in the Southeast forum that any remote fart could pop a SECS with the pattern setup. Now we have baked beans, butterflies, and polar bears involved. Whale tidal waves are the tip of the iceberg.

look at my H5 chart I posted at 144. That's what dreams are made of right there. We have that same look in 2 days from now and I would love to say the surface is gonna look damn sexy.

Need that lead wave to slow down a little, which it has in consecutive runs now. Want that energy to catch up on the backside and make this thing go bananas.

Idc what the surface shows at 144 that H5 map is a thing of freakin beauty.. we have this same look in 2 days and there is going to be something epic happening along the eastern seaboard. 18Z

Man H5 at 144 is a beaut! 18Z

HR 135. LP much closer to coast comparing it to 18z.

Pretty significant changes with the s/w and the amplification with it. Noticeable throughout a good portion of the run thus far. Really curious to see what happens to the surface once we get there in just a couple.

HR 69 the s/w being more amped is noticeable and standing out vs 18z. The west coast ridge doesn't seem as pronounced either but that's me speculating with extreme amateur eyes. Terp and High Risk could clarify if they so choose to in hopes to provide clarity.

With the ICON it literally wouldn't surprise me in the least bit LMAO!

Whats 1,018 miles in distance between Green Bay WI to Chesterfield VA? Because that's where the LP was modeled at 12Z and now where the 0Z shows before going up into DC. That in my book is a huge win for the GFS, even if it is the ICON.

Wow.. Icon with some pretty big changes to everyone's point here. Out to 126..

Agreed! Just finished looking at it myself.

It’s also shoving around a 1036HP so I’m not sure how likely that is? Can anyone see this Miller B as well?