Buddy1987

Guys, I really wouldn’t overly be concerned about the Euro. There are several known biases that come into play concerning the model itself, including over-amplifying, along with a very well known bias of not correctly ejecting energy out of the southwest. By holding it back a couple days it completely transforms the 500 and surface maps. Could it be onto something? Sure.. Is it most likely showing its hand with its tendencies? That’s what I’m banking on. I’m ready for cold and snow so it’s all I can do to counteract what just happened lol. GFS and Canadian were also not far off of one another whatsoever.

Yea I agree. @brooklynwx99 touched on the bias of over-amplifying but the Euro also has known biases when it comes to not ejecting systems out of the southwest and holding the energy back, thus imo why 500 and surface look the way they do based on what JI shared.

@Weather Will waiting for the 12Z ice accumulation map off the Euro! Appreciate everything you contribute. After reviewing the 12Z suite, giving me a lot of concern for ice accrual, ESPECIALLY with looking at CAD savvy models, i.e. NAM and Canadian, with their superiority for being able to sniff out CAD related events. Really painting an ugly picture up and down 81 and up 64. Going to be interesting to see what transpires as we close in. I take the GFS and the EURO to an extent with a grain of salt when it comes to these types of setups.

Agreed! The Euro Ensembles and to a degree the GEFS as well are honking for late next week. That’s what I’m hanging my hat on at this juncture.

Looks to have cut back pretty good bit on overall qpf. Nam known to do that since last upgrade however.

Precisely!

12/21 has an ominous look to it with the GEFS mean just off the coast for majority of the area. Definitely a time to watch that would be closest.

Man... Happy Hour GFS is trying REALLY hard at about Hr180..

Does the RDPS normally run colder than most models? The Freezing Rain totals are prolific, even if you cut them in half here..

18Z NAM really laying the smackdown from about HR 60 to HR 72 up and down 81. Waiting for Pivotal to update Freezing Rain map totals, as there seems to be a glitch... Here is HR 66 when it's already been happening:

12Z GFS basically a north of 64 threat and especially as you get into Northern VA along 81. We will see what happens as we get closer to the event and the NAM comes more into range for its sniffing out of CAD. So far this morning it's Canadian's/NAM vs GFS with how far the cold air is entrenched.

@Weather Will 12Z Nam not joking around with ZR totals... guidance has really been trending back toward what they were showing last Friday with this system.

Freezing Rain totals on 12Z Nam nothing to joke about from 81 down toward the Escarpment.

18z EURO concurs as well, at least SW VA 81 corridor at minimum.

There are no words to describe the 18z GFS/GEFS hahaha.

Need Jebman to give his analysis and break down the play by play on his walk for that one

I honestly kinda thought University of Wyoming would have something. Only thing I could really find was a Washington Post article that has a lot of similarities between 1983 and then the 2013 setup. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/06/current-pattern-draws-comparisons-to-that-from-historically-cold-December-1983/

Really been keying in on that for at least several runs. One hell of a HP as well. TT only goes out to 240 for Euro. Did it show the 23rd as well?

That was one thing that caught my eye as well was the confluence up top while the LP was still down in Deep South. Hoping that’s a trend at this point. F*ck it gimme the ice storm at this point.

Another run of big changes at H5 hr 102 on GFS.

Appreciate that. Looking at the Canadian be lights out along the 81 corridor if it came to fruition (showing 1/2” plus) Between this and Euro not looking good!

I’m trying to find an ice accumulation map and I felt like the Tropical Tidbits products used to have it under each model run but now it’s not there anymore.

Anyone have an ice accumulation map? I could’ve swore CMC at minimum used to have that product available on TT but I don’t see it anywhere. Not looking great down here with ice storm potential.

One OP run brother. 18z at that too. Let’s see what 0z suite brings us.

My first post since last year, which feels kinda weird. Took a pretty long break. Nice to see the threat pop up within 7 days basically. Not some fantasyland 384hr threat. Interesting to see what the models start to possibly sniff out as we close in.