Buddy1987

Exactly! 2014 same type of ULL swing through. Forecasted 1-3/2-4 type deal got like 9”. It snowed so freakin hard it was incredible

Guys I alluded to this in the winter storm main chat but I would REALLY pay attention to that monstrous upper level low swinging through a lot of our area, because on the backside the winds are gonna turn, it’s going to bring some even colder air and from what I just saw on the GFS there could be a pretty nice convective band that traverses. That is almost always under modeled until short range models are almost at kickoff

One thing I notice on the 18z GFS is for northwestern NC into VA it’s attempting to strengthen that band pivoting around on the backside of that departing bowling ball ULL. That could absolutely play a factor that may be being overlooked somewhat because of all the short term concerns wrt how the low transfers to the coast thermals etc..

Thinking to myself no big deal between HRRR/NAM/GFS dews. Shows 5, 20 and 28. Only a 23 point spread on things up this way

These are one of my favorite storms when you guys are getting annihilated to my southwest, I look at the radar and its just a wall of dark greens and yellows streaming on in!

I’m thinking like a 4-8” type ordeal that way. I think If some of the earlier timed models can push in that wall of WAA before the ULL starts to cook up the mid levels that would potentially be a way to over perform for you. My intuition tells me to err on the lower side for non disappointment reasons. My bar is set for 6” so I can say if we get that I will be elated. I’m really starting to look hard at this ULL traversing right under me or almost directly overhead. That could release some small meteors as the column cools even more

The crazy part to me is the surface looks worlds better at face value but if you go to 500 the ULL presentation hasn't really changed any and in all reality the GFS looks to have suffered some type of convective feedback related issue, as it focuses placing the "L" over that line of storms in the Atlantic. Regardless tho to @BooneWX point its another beat down for WNC into SVA and its been persistent for runs on end.

The RGEM is on some Hulk Hogan roids with this storm. By far the most amped and pumped up.

Awesome thanks a lot. Feel like if we can get this to push in sooner like the GFS depicts over the NAM will "save us" from the dreaded pingers.

Sir what do you feel like occurs up into SVA with that ULL? I know Disc alluded to the fact late last night he was concerned about the placement and setup but as of very late last night thermals still looked "ok" up this way.

Biggest thing I notice between the NAM and GFS is simply speed and progression of the system at 500. Heights also look better out in front of the NAM and the energy dropping down out of western Canada wants to potentially dig more on the backside rather than race out front to catch up and cause the system to start feeling its effects and pull north sooner. That is the biggest discrepancy I see between the two models right now when toggling back and forth between 12z NAM and the 6Z NAM and GFS.

12z 12K NAM at 15 looks a tick weaker and a little east southeast of its 6z position but in all honesty that may be pulling hairs. Does not have the closed contour however. Lets see what it does with it.

That’s literally the best one I may have ever seen on this board lmfao.. Surface wise I thought the GFS produced a much better track, as it finally skirts under DC just south. I would gamble heavy if that came to fruition although I’d like to see h5 look just a tick better if I’m in DC proper and that area

I thought the GFS looked much better wrt track purposes. A bit east once it reaches the VA Beach area. Any tick helps

It was incredible! Forecasted to get an additional 1-3/2-4 and probably got another 6-10” in that ballpark. My bar is set at 6” anything more is a bonus. Been far too long since we’ve gotten a meaningful snowstorm in these parts.

Anybody have the Ukie? Seemed pretty consistent last several runs.

@Discif I remember correctly that 2014 snowstorm where we got a solid 20'' or so, that ULL swung through on the back and using the word outperformed was an understatement. I'm hoping that it helps us in this regard here too. Either that or the front end thump produces 1-2'' per hour rates for 4-6 hours and we do a lot of damage on the front end before any PL becomes an issue.

The ULL really concerns me. If we can get it underneath us somehow (which it's close) that will help for sure. But the problem is it pushes all the WAA up over us and would most likely flood the mid levels with too much warmth. So far the models are not wanting anything to do with mixing out here. 700 looked good for the snow growth dendrite area and 850s were fine. Hell you can correct me if im wrong but im not sure I saw it get above -3/-4 celsius and then as the ULL swings through it plummets down to -8/-10/-11 Side note was just looking at GFS. Weird to see thermals colder than Canadian. Usually its the opposite. Canadian one of the most amped.

0Z Canadian looks better on surface map. Low more east if CNC is looking for wintry precip.

That is some seriously HEAVY snow in WNC at 66 on the Canadian.

I'd venture to say he's got something good picked out to drink too HAHA

@clskinsfanhow you feeling up that way man?

Yea pulling tiny hairs may be just a couple hours slower but same trajectory with that ULL.

HP looks to be pushing down on the storm a little bit more through 48 so far.

ICON snow totals: