Buddy1987

Def something all of us want to see as the HP will keep the cad locked in longer before sliding off to the east and will be in a better spot before precip arrives. Good obs

PSU from mid Atlantic thread was saying that it was almost identical to last run. Low goes right over DC so I would highly doubt it made a 250 mile shift lol Kuchera looks very similar to last run. May have even bumped up snow totals in the blue ridge by a couple inches

Man you should see some of the weenies in the mid Atlantic thread defending the 84 hr Nam it’s unreal. I post them here just because it’s something to do before the main course of GFS but even I can say I’m a realist when it comes to overall expectations

@Disc what kind of timeframe are you seeing for snow to start. Late Sunday morning?

Can prolly add the Ukie in there as well from what I’ve seen Burrel and others post

WNC smoked that run as we get out to 78. Still not done up this way just yet.

66 hrs just a smidge better. Heights imo aren't as pumped up this run which will help.

Alrighty GFS at 42 a little better at 500. Tick east of where it was. Don't know how much of a factor that will play come east coast setup time however.

Yea that was one of my fears a day or two ago I had mentioned where the high pressure was modeled too strong. It's not just that tho the low isn't helping flooding in boiling water into the mid levels either.

You got to remember the energy diving down out of Montana is not the only player. There's multiple pieces to this puzzle. How quickly the high pressure exits stage right. How much does the energy on the back side of the storm dig, causing the storm to turn north and then potentially northwest. How much do heights rise ahead of the storm vs how well does the confluence help us. And finally the damn pesky decaying ULL how far does that travel up the spine of the apps. That specific piece looked to behave for the last couple of runs and now we are 2/2 at 18z with it hanging in there for too long. If that ends up rearing its ugly head the mid levels are going to be flooded with some significant warmth. All of this is a giant jigsaw puzzle.

Man 2/2 in dumpster fire runs for two models at 18z. If there's one iota of positivity its the NAM and ICON so there's that...

Based on 57 at 500 on ICON dont see really anything positive lol. Energy more northwest, confluence not as sharp and energy diving from up top out of Montana border region is a tick more south this run, which will in turn cause the system to turn north too quickly. We'll see how it plays out but as of right now I dont have the warm and fuzzies.

ICON at 33 has the shortwave energy a bit stronger in the Plains and the confluence not looking as good as 12z. I really hope this isnt a trend this evening with all the models becoming more amped as this thing gets sampled really well.

18z 12K NAM 18Z 3K NAM 500 is still behind on 3K but purely looking at the surface it looks better in this exact shot.

Nam looks like a big stinking steaming pile of hot dog sh*t thats the only commentary I have for that run.

Man apparently my ripe age of 34 is starting to affect my memory. I do remember 2018 but if I remember we got like 9” out here in Salem. Well hopefully you live close by because from my house out that way the stretch on 81 would be insane to try and make the journey going up into the mountains

Get out of here no way?!

Anyone recall how long back this was sniffed out?

I have that feeling there’s still a trick or two up it’s sleeve

I find it funny on the surface map verbatim me and you are a tiny little bubble still surrounded in all snow sounding. Probably has been a solid 10 years since we’ve had this opportunity (believe it was winter of 2011 when we had that big big snowstorm). Are you working in Blacksburg this weekend or do you get to enjoy it? I’m looking to get the party officially started with a WSW with tomorrow mornings products

@BornAgain13 man that snow band verbatim would be absolutely insane over southern VA

Illustrates the transfer perfectly for those that are trying to distinguish between a Miller A and B. You can see the kidney bean shape all the way from central AL down into southern GA. Nice HP sitting over top funneling down some beautiful CAD

Did I miss the GEFS by any chance? Got tied up at work

I continue to bet heavy on the baroclinic zone, around or just to the west of the Gulf Stream. The difference in temps the lows like to stay along it most times in these setups