Buddy1987

dude 84 hr frame it’s just dumping snow down your way. That was a really nice run and 5h looked very nice as well. Better dig with the energy

I hate these kind of storms man. Geographically you and I get stuck in no man’s land because southeast crew could care less about mostly cloudy skies and most of the MA crew is all around DC northern VA area hours from us so it’s like we don’t have a happy medium

Where do you get access to RGEM that early? I checked pivotal and TT

Lol drier than the Sahara. What a year to track models inside 100 hours side note not that it matters much but icon looks like arse as well. Not really expecting the gfs to produce here at 0z. Hope I’m wrong but trend seems to reduce qpf

@BornAgain13flush hit 18z gfs I just feel like this is thread the needle needs to be perfect

Yea that baby is pretty amped

I find it rather comical it’s 2022 and we’re basically 4 days out and that’s what we get out of two of the biggest models to try and figure out as to whether you get nothing or 7” for my specific area. Someone correct me if I’m wrong (other than last system where GFS totally sh*t the bed) but the trend has been for the models to start to gravitate toward the gfs.

CMC has been trash this year. Very disappointed in it comparatively to years past. Ukie apparently is bipolar as well. Was in lock step essentially with gfs now a nothing burger. It will trend back. I’m cautiously optimistic for WNC mountains into SVA at minimum.

I actually thought the icon trended more toward a gfs like event on that specific run. I have a good feeling for today

Lmao I actually thoroughly enjoy the Weather Will WB maps. Why?! No logical or scientific explanation behind it.

Wrt temps my damn yard is like a frozen tundra so that wouldn’t play a factor in my mind

I def wouldn’t esp for our latitude. 18z gfs actually looked tasty VA north

Pretty solid snow/sleet mix occurring right now. Starting to accumulate on everything, roads included. Not looking for much but it’s still winter weather

Actually pretty decent snow/sleet mix here and starting to accumulate. Looks like rock salt out there lol. Any winter weather is a win

Yes 100% agree with this. Was thinking all along it was way too far nw but even down this way I’m still at 23 and precip on my doorstep. Unprecedented if you ask me.

For me this is unprecedented as to what is occurring, specifically with the GFS. I mean not even close with precip. All the probs have been hiked up to 80-90% up this way and the temp is still sitting at 23.

Need to will it about 60 miles more northwest up this way, as the 540 line is right on top of me. Interesting setup nonetheless

Dang that’s a crazy regression of what could’ve been.

Do you know if the Ukie was still amped? Also you saying the cmc is still not there made me laugh just for the fact of I’m not sure if it’s been there at all this winter. It’s still trying to figure out 3 storms ago.

Yea I would hedge large bets on gfs right now. It has been unreal so far this winter.

Model has really been adjusting last several cycles here to equate for the HP up top. That’s what I’m looking at next couple days here, as to whether or not that high gets even stronger or if it ends up sinking south some and really setting the stage for a nasty ip/zr event.

I’m not sure I ever recall a winter where spacing was this crazy. It’s like every couple days it seems there’s a storm on top of a storm. Maybe because it’s being alluded to this year but trying to forecast these things has got to be an absolute nightmare. Even the first storm, against the apps I.e SVA into NC mountains, at hr 90 the gfs has a 1045 high up over eastern Quebec. That even noses down slightly you have a dramatically different forecast. The low will not move plow into that thing and you can already see the last couple runs the low is readjusting to the cold air up top. This is a fascinating next seven days plus.

I was literally just thinking the same thing. By hour 90 it’s still modeled to be at 1045 up in Quebec. Still good enough position, esp for our areas next to the apps. That is stout!

This! I’m shocked we still have like a 3” snowpack in the backyard for 2 weeks now. Been a long time since I’ve seen that around this area.

Nice 1/2” outside. Colder concrete patio starting to cave out back. Temp down to 30.4. Better dendrites occurring right now in this band.