Buddy1987

@wncsnow check out this convective like band that forms on the back end of the departing ULL. That looks like it would be something fierce.

GFS has been unbelievably consistent with this for several days now. I feel like if NAM ends up correcting toward a GFS type synoptic solution the thermals will adjust accordingly within reason as well. Kinda silly to see the GFS all snow in certain areas the NAM has PL/ZR, when it has one of the worst resolutions for CAD purposes.

Yea it’s nuts leading up to game time here. The Nam can be the Nam for sure at times but this def gives me some cause for concern if you are rooting for wintry type weather, regardless of what you want. Need that low to transfer and lock whatever cad is still in

That was about the biggest sh*t run you could have possibly had. It’s on an island for the right now moment with how it blasts the low up the apps and flips even Buffalo from snow. Icon looked much better with low progress and I’m expecting GFS to remain steady. If not most of us are probably in trouble. But let’s not get to that mindset yet.

Worlds difference on ICON as it transfers to the coast long before it even remotely resembles the nams evolution. I’m assuming GFS will hold serve but man the 0z runs have kicked off with some nuttiness.

That’s what I’m banking on brother. Get it in here a little earlier as it looks like that’s a possibility and take our chances that way.

Yea Disc sounded the alarm late last night. That damn ULL is just screwing up everything from cooking the mid levels to punching a dry slot perilously close to WNC and western VA. I think at this point just based strictly off the nam we’d be lucky to get 3-6/4-8 before sleet ravages us. The ice storm threat is becoming a real concern for you down that way.

12K Nam looks just a little quicker with wanting to push precip in

Cmon guys let’s get the weenie sh*t out of here. We’re talking about the damn HRRR at 48 hours. Might as well start talking about the 240hr run of the GFS while we’re at it.

I get a good laugh and then move on. WAYYYY too far out of their range. No point in looking this far out imo.

I feel like the model is more screwed up than it ever has been in it’s entire existence. That upgrade just completely warped any remaining intelligence inside that thing

Exactly! 2014 same type of ULL swing through. Forecasted 1-3/2-4 type deal got like 9”. It snowed so freakin hard it was incredible

Guys I alluded to this in the winter storm main chat but I would REALLY pay attention to that monstrous upper level low swinging through a lot of our area, because on the backside the winds are gonna turn, it’s going to bring some even colder air and from what I just saw on the GFS there could be a pretty nice convective band that traverses. That is almost always under modeled until short range models are almost at kickoff

One thing I notice on the 18z GFS is for northwestern NC into VA it’s attempting to strengthen that band pivoting around on the backside of that departing bowling ball ULL. That could absolutely play a factor that may be being overlooked somewhat because of all the short term concerns wrt how the low transfers to the coast thermals etc..

Thinking to myself no big deal between HRRR/NAM/GFS dews. Shows 5, 20 and 28. Only a 23 point spread on things up this way

These are one of my favorite storms when you guys are getting annihilated to my southwest, I look at the radar and its just a wall of dark greens and yellows streaming on in!

I’m thinking like a 4-8” type ordeal that way. I think If some of the earlier timed models can push in that wall of WAA before the ULL starts to cook up the mid levels that would potentially be a way to over perform for you. My intuition tells me to err on the lower side for non disappointment reasons. My bar is set for 6” so I can say if we get that I will be elated. I’m really starting to look hard at this ULL traversing right under me or almost directly overhead. That could release some small meteors as the column cools even more

The crazy part to me is the surface looks worlds better at face value but if you go to 500 the ULL presentation hasn't really changed any and in all reality the GFS looks to have suffered some type of convective feedback related issue, as it focuses placing the "L" over that line of storms in the Atlantic. Regardless tho to @BooneWX point its another beat down for WNC into SVA and its been persistent for runs on end.

The RGEM is on some Hulk Hogan roids with this storm. By far the most amped and pumped up.

Awesome thanks a lot. Feel like if we can get this to push in sooner like the GFS depicts over the NAM will "save us" from the dreaded pingers.

Sir what do you feel like occurs up into SVA with that ULL? I know Disc alluded to the fact late last night he was concerned about the placement and setup but as of very late last night thermals still looked "ok" up this way.

Biggest thing I notice between the NAM and GFS is simply speed and progression of the system at 500. Heights also look better out in front of the NAM and the energy dropping down out of western Canada wants to potentially dig more on the backside rather than race out front to catch up and cause the system to start feeling its effects and pull north sooner. That is the biggest discrepancy I see between the two models right now when toggling back and forth between 12z NAM and the 6Z NAM and GFS.

12z 12K NAM at 15 looks a tick weaker and a little east southeast of its 6z position but in all honesty that may be pulling hairs. Does not have the closed contour however. Lets see what it does with it.

That’s literally the best one I may have ever seen on this board lmfao.. Surface wise I thought the GFS produced a much better track, as it finally skirts under DC just south. I would gamble heavy if that came to fruition although I’d like to see h5 look just a tick better if I’m in DC proper and that area

I thought the GFS looked much better wrt track purposes. A bit east once it reaches the VA Beach area. Any tick helps