Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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0Z GEFS really liking the central VA to eastern PA/ NW NJ. Still shows a general theme region wide tho of a solid precip producer. Edit: It did cut back decent bit Western NC/SC but at this point I’m pulling hairs with the GFS suite.. signal and 500 setup are there.
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Jan 21-23 1987 https://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2017/01/what_were_the_worst_25_storms_in_the_northeast_in_the_past_60_years.html Bring this on!
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If we got 2 storms in a couple days I’d seriously contemplate signing on the dotted line to call winter a wrap after that, even with my latitude comparatively to some in here. Would be absolutely incredible.
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Late next week storm is too progressive on the 0z Canadian. Doesn’t dig as much as GFS did. I will say however the ensembles have looked better than the op. Will have to see what 0Z ensembles say in a little.
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HR 246 the entire forum would literally be happy. Low pressure southeast of Savannah.
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Regardless of surface at 0z, that upper air pattern is starting to look like a classic, textbook, major eastern seaboard snowstorm.
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I’m way ahead of myself here in time but as we get closer and if it hangs on to the evolution, I wonder how much the gulf channel will play a role in bombing this storm out and really cranking the moisture. At minimum with that storm starting to crank in central GA, southeast flow would start to pump up the advection.
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Damn!! Hahahaha def bombogenesis..
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7mb drop from 177-180. This board will be rocking by about Saturday night if this continues. 180 992mb off of Wilmington.
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Load the powder keg at 171!
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She about to go BOOM! at 171
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Man if I didn’t know anything and saw the map at 108 I’d think for sure we have a Miller A on our hands. Too bad that didn’t materialize. Let’s see what happens with the storm next week.
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@psuhoffmanif trends continue can we get a live stream at some point for one of the model runs?
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What’s really odd is the low actually shifted closer to the coast on the 18z GEFS. Kinda thought it would increase the median but I’m still very pleased we have back to back solid runs. REALLY hoping to get something here. I wanted to see how far back the models nailed that Dakotas blizzard and they were toward a week or so forecasting what was going to transpire, which makes me feel good as we get closer. Let’s hope!
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The best part to this is it's been trending better and better as we approach the time frame, which makes me super excited. Good point out though!
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I'm gonna weenie tag this but I also will be joining you because it's piqued my interest.
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LMAO!! I was wondering when you were going to show up. Hope all is well. I agree with @BornAgain13 that's a marked improvement on the EPS.
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Canadian has primarily shown this system. 12Z was a swing and a miss however. If EURO shows it this board is gonna go nuts!
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It won't necessarily because of the blend of all the individual members. The key detail with the ensembles is to pinpoint the fact of 1. It agrees with the OP and 2. It is showcasing that time frame is a time to keep an eye on.
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GEFS looking sexy for the same time frame..
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Nah.. forget that.. your return is going to result in biblical snows upon us! You've brought good juju before.
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Guys I gotta say the GFS ENS has me salivating with the setup. If the strong block modeled around the 22nd/23rd can force the 50/50 underneath it there is no telling the fireworks that could go off in that setup. If it doesn’t eastern seaboard (maybe Philly north would look to cash in). It could easily happen so stay tuned. The 500 setup is about as good as you can get for an east coast snowstorm.
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Question for the pros in here. How much emphasis would you put behind the NAM and CAD related events, especially seeing how much more it raised the ante with regards to expected accumulation of ice at 12Z? Do you feel like it's overdoing it or does it hold some weight in these scenarios if you were going to create a forecast using it in a specific setup like this?
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At the absolute minimum here that cold shot is no freakin joke!
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@nj2vaor @Weather Willthose euro shots of zr accumulation, you happen to have them as to what they show just a tick south of that map in SW VA?
