Windspeed
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Everything posted by Windspeed
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Landfall. Gamma didn't pull off the upgrade. Trivial as far as impacts, but obviously those seasonal numbers.... 000 WTNT65 KNHC 031658 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TULUM, MEXICO... Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall in the northeast Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum, Mexico, around 1145 AM CDT. The storm was very close to hurricane strength at landfall, with maximum sustained winds near 70 MPH (110 MPH) with higher gusts. A weather station at Xel-Ha Park, along the Yucatan coast just north of Tulum, reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) within the past hour. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 87.5W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch
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92L is quite convectively active this morning. Good divergence and CAPE associated with this system. Additionally there is already good inflow and convergence notable on visible. Yet the ECMWF is yet to do jack squat with this system during lead time just like a few days ago when it missed with Gamma. We shall see.
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Getting close.
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Dueling CBs within the CDO with enough distance off the Rivera Maya coast that Gamma may very well attain hurricane intensity by landfall. Been a number of these this year.
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Unbelievable... Safety first and foremost but damn we've been plagued this year with flight issues. Pun intended.
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The 12z GFSv15 does try to develop the current wave in the ECARIB but gets it too close to the Yucatan Peninsula. It is inland too long and also gets bypassed by the trough. The second wave evolves CAG characteristics further west and breaks off into the EPAC. This is of course a single operational run solution but let's go ahead and cancel the remainder of the season. Trollololo... That being said, let's look at the 12z GFSv16 (para). It develops the first wave much quicker south of Cuba near to Jamaica. It also gains enough latitude to get caught into the southwesterlies associated with the digging trough. This turns the first potential TC, at this point a hurricane into and across the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, the para develops the second ITCZ wave out of convergence off Venezuela and then goes bananas, having a second TC bombing out in the NW Caribbean into the long range. Varying solutions but pretty much the overall theme here continues to be increased chances of TCG somewhere in the NW Caribbean. That hasn't really changed. I should also add that this morning's ECMWF ensemble continues to show tight clusters of TCG in the NW Caribbean through the medium range as well. Does this guarantee we'll have a WCARIB hurricane? No, but there's not really anything to prove we won't. Likewise, the season isn't dead. We'll revisit that topic in about five more weeks once the next favorable CCKW has passed.
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SSTs are obviously not going to be an issue in the NW Caribbean. There will be some cold fronts that will cool the N. GOM but the SE GOM should remain quite warm for anything that would/could potentially hook into Southwesterly flow and head across the Florida Peninsula. Bigger influences will be stacked vs sheared flow, land influences (Yucatan, Cuba) and how intense a hypothetical TC would become prior to entry into the SE GOM.
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Here comes the first wave that has model support. The GFS15 vs 16(para) have varying solutions. The first wave near the Lesser Antilles is much more vigorously modeled by the GFS to become the intense hurricane. The para wants to throw down the gauntlet on the second wave currently out over the MDR. At any rate, chances are we'll have some sort of W. Caribbean action by next weekend. The ECMWF ensembles are increasing support as well for something developing. We're getting closer to the mid range.
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Both the GFS op and the parallel are now picking up on TCG in the deep Caribbean to Western Caribbean in the mid-to-long range. The ECMWF shows zilch. However its ensembles are now showing possible development in the WCARIB as well, all roughly within a 100 hr variance. The para is faster than the operational with development and potential TCG.
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For me, two more majors, regardless of land interaction. The lack of them this season is really the only thing blowing it out the roof. I get they mean squat if nobody is affected. However, climatologically-speaking, any majors from this point forward would likely be Caribbean-based storms and virtually guaranteed to hit land.
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What would you consider needing to unfold late season to bring this up to A-/A territory?
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Oops. My bad. Thanks for the correction. Had Maria as an early October system in my head. No stretch at all there, more like just flat incorrect.
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If someone would have told me we'd end up with 25+ named storms and only two majors, I'd have laughed them off the forum. Yet that is now a real possibility.
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Well we got a CONUS intense landfall out of the way. There are inactive years here and there that have these (Andrew '92) albeit rare. But we've seemingly had everything this year except an Atlantic Cat 5. Those used to be rare, but since 2016, Octobers alone have given us three (Matthew, Maria and Michael). Wild all were 'M' storms. Mu anyone?
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We're in an amplified pattern right now so any GOM or W. Caribbean, regardless of CAG or easterly wave development would most likely turn into southerly or southwesterly flow depending on ECONUS trough and frontal placement the next few weeks. Now that being said, there might be a more zonal pattern re-emerge mid October that could allow for some western MDR development out of the ITCZ and be an ECARIB threat. Though the western extension of WAM is winding down, the MJO should be phasing favorably around that time. That would potentially still give us some action in the Antilles. Perhaps a few more central Atlantic fish/ACE generators and even another deep SW Caribbean system in November. This is getting into extreme long range. But though the Atlantic is dead this week, I think we'll have a busy stretch in October. ENSO continues negative and AMO is still favorable for bursts of activity. I'm going to say 4 more hurricanes, one of those being a major before the season closes in November. 23/8/2 right now with an ACE of 105. We finish around 30/12/3? ACE somewhere in the 130 to 140s range. Not as much ACE as I had considered in the preseason due to smaller number of majors, but obviously the number of storms this year has been insane regardless. Will that be enough to verify all the preseason forecasts for a hyperactive season? Based on number of storms, no debate. Based on landfalls? Still no debate. Based on ACE? Questionable. Definitely "active" but perhaps just shy of hyperactive?
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Perhaps a revision can be done in the coming year and they can formulate a better backup plan in the event we run out of names again. Unfortunately it's too late to avoid the issue this year. That being said.. Eggplant?.. Eggplant? [emoji533] Seriously? You're fired, Naso!
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Some folks reviewed the HURDAT2 data and apparently there had never been three seperate TCs form within a 24 hour period before. So that's a first.
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lol @ the long-range GFS... [emoji849]
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Pretty much anyone hitting up the tropical forum today...
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Looks like the MJO will transition to a brief suppressive regime next week as an unfavorable CCKW swings across the N. Atlantic Basin. However, that is followed by another enhancing CCKW leading into October. Therefore, things could get quiet briefly following Teddy and the potential GOM system followed by another uptick towards the end of the month. Of course it is important to remember that positive (red) MJO regimes are not as unfavorable during peak weeks as TCG can still occur in the Caribbean, GOM and MDR as overall surface pressures tend to have decreased versus mid-Summer months. Pockets of favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity can still be obtained over random areas, especially with lacking EPAC TC activity. In addition, the MDR has tended to moisten somewhat with a backdown in pressure heights and 700 hPa easterlies. So we could still see something pop up east of the Antilles as well.
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A low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic, 99L, is transitioning more warm core with time. It would of course be fitting for 2020 if a Subtropical Storm grabs the last seasonal name prior to the Greek alphabet. lol... Perhaps 90L can get its act together in short order today and snatch the name away. The race is on...
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ACE isn't the only standard though. People who only consider it to be are foolish. Landfalls are critical data. Cost is important data. Number of storms are critical data. However, ACE shouldn't be done away with as it is an important climatological tool for measuring and comparing basins. Also, it's a great data filter for finding the most active seasons. It's no coincidence that seasons with the highest ACE had numerous powerful TCs beyond just having a high total number of TCs. You also usually find some real long-tracking beasts as well.
