Windspeed

A PRE may be setting up over SE LA ahead of Ida. The upper trough is increasing lapse rates with significant ice particles bring detected due to strong updrafts. 2-3"/hr rates is going to kickoff a big head start for inland and coast flooding for low lying areas well before Ida outer bands begin their impact.

These things are chaotic and hard to pin down. Certainly too unpredictable to forecast structure and size with accuracy. I mean, interaction with Western Cuba could also backfire by increasing/broadening the size of the core vortex, leading to a larger eyewall during intensification over the east-central GOM. Anyone's guess and it would just be that, a guess.

Isla de la Juventud / Isle of Youth is very low elevation. It is also surrounded by the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic Basin. It might slow intensification but the core bands will be able to pull sufficient evaporation that it should avoid disruption. The western region of Cuba would be more of a deterrent to intensification or at least halt it until it clears it and moves into the SE GOM. There could be some disruption over Western Cuba.

Horrid timing...

Is that one of your petPVs?

Pretty impressive organization since last night. Deep convection over the LLC. Appears to be stacked. Core appears to be developing. Wonder how much intensification Ida can undergo prior to Isle of Youth and Western Cuba here? Good odds of being a hurricane by first landfall. Also looks like the GFS operational runs the past few days were not overdoing intensification trends prior to Cuba.

I usually am lit. But mine wrath for the NAM all these years was just too much to contain. Everyone have a good night. I'll post more thoughts tomorrow when time allows. Peace.

STOP POSTING THE NAM. kthx.

No, it is 100% misleading and unwarranted if you understand that model's purpose and use. Yet you still posted it. This is on you. Period.

Oh I am, I just will never understand. I can get people who simply do not know better. But to basically disclaimer it and then post? Grrr...

Then for God's sake, why post it? Just, why? For all the reasons x10000000, why post the bloody damn NAM, take it seriously and comment about it? Why do people continue to do this?

You will rarely get a better (or worse in perspective) synoptic setup like this for a NW moving major hurricane in the Gulf. The hype is warranted. The hope is hitting rural swamps. Hype away and hope for the best.

I meant diabatic heating. Sorry, been a long day.

Yes, it's very possible recon samples wind data for a tropical storm northeast of the low level circulation. We'll see..

An excellent example of why ATCF should not be used over an official advisory. Though Best Track had TD9 as a TS, recon was not convincing enough for the NHC. Therefore, they did not upgrade the depression for the 5PM EDT advisory package.

PV / upper trough that brought you storms last night is the culprit. 500-300 hPa level weakness in the ridge north of the TC. A more stacked and strong system will feel the poleward mid-to-upper flow versus a weaker system until 500 dm heights rebuild off the SECONUS and diabetic heating from Ida fills/squashes the PV. A gradual bend back NW is probable into landfall as the potential hurricane traverses the central GOM.

I'd imagine the direction of approach is worse for surge and flooding. But it's still not a scenario in stone. Obviously intensity, size, forward motion / speed, fetch while over the central GOM. We can go on....

Exactly. Additonally, please take the gloom and doom posts to the banter thread. Too much uncertainty to be making posts like these three days out. If it comes to pass a worst case scenario is unfolding, there will be plenty of gloom to be had. Again, for now there's just too many unknowns.

Per ATCF best track, TD9 has now become Ida. AL, 09, 2021082618, BEST, 0, 177N, 794W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,

Interesting that the 12z GFS is now lifting Tropical Storm Nora in the EPAC into the Mexican coastline and dissipates by 54 hours. This would be around noon Saturday. Again, this is just one global model solution; however, if there were going to be downstream upper level influences between the potential GOM hurricane, the decaying PV feature over the western GOM and the upper outflow pattern that would have a detrimental impact on TC intensity, you would at least want a strong EPAC TC near the Baja. By 78 hours, the GOM TC is bearing down on landfall with limited interference from upper level westerly flow. The ECMWF may have a completely different outcome for Nora than the 12z GFS, but it is an interesting development. Further still, the decaying PV feature leading into this may be wedged enough in-between Nora and future-Ida for Nora's presence/intensity to not even matter.

AF301/TEAL71 has taken off and is en route to TD9.

Yuck...

We have a potential intense TC brewing that is locked into a US coastal landfall and is about to get a lot of attention, media or otherwise. The main meteorological thread is going to get busy, so as to better assist the mods, we'll make a banter thread here. Ramble on about whatever local concerns, travel, direct, indirect, semi- or even non-related discussion while this event unfolds.