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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    No sign of it on the Gem. Lol
  2. mitchnick
    Big improvement over 18z.
  3. mitchnick
    Heavy snow in eastern NC not a sign it's coming all the way up usually.
  4. mitchnick
    Looks good here. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  5. mitchnick
  6. mitchnick
    I thought you meant 1/3/22. Nm
  7. mitchnick
    Definitely. Not much, but all the height lines are south a touch.
  8. mitchnick
    We definitely missed 1/22. I think ur thinking 2021.
  9. mitchnick
    Business or pleasure?
  10. mitchnick
    We have 8, maybe 9, more model cycles after 0z between now and the first flakes fall. We don't need much more qpf with temps, so 6"+ is more than doable unless everything suddenly finds it's way to the terlet.
  11. mitchnick
    Icon ftw at 180hrs even if falls Monday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  12. mitchnick
  13. mitchnick
  14. mitchnick
    That's the fluff
  15. mitchnick
    You've just lost ur job.
  16. mitchnick
    Looks much like the Gfs, Nam, and Srefs for sure.
  17. mitchnick
    Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago.
  18. mitchnick
    It's the trend that's most important with the Srefs at this point, and it is positive.
  19. mitchnick
    That's just one of the Sref members used in the Srefs I posted. Obviously, the snowiest one! Lol
  20. mitchnick
    For those that still don't like the Srefs, I have even more bad news for you. And there's maybe .1" more snow in places on the latest run after the map I used here, but I had to use the 78hrs to compare with the 84hrs on the last run. The storm is a few hours slower, which alows it to expand the precip shield i.e. wetter in some locations. A few places may have been cut back, but those localized reductions will just have to be taken for the team.
  21. mitchnick
    Figures. 18z Gfs lost what it was working on the prior 2 runs.
  22. mitchnick
    I assure you all panic here is rational...based on which step we are in the program.
  23. mitchnick
    With literally 10-11 more model runs before the first flakes start to fall, that much each time will get us close to the Gfs/Nam combo. Lol
  24. mitchnick
    My NWS forecast has been updated to 4-7", so I guess they like the other group/average. EDIT: Euro is in that range now.
  25. mitchnick
    I think you'll find when comparing them to say Pivotal, the snowfall color scheme is too high on SV. Meaning 6" is really 4" and 4" is really 2", etc.
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