mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Long range warm-ups have generally been muted or reversed this season. So anyone hoping for lower heating bills better be prepared for no end. The pattern has to break at some point, of course, with February being the likely time frame if January fails. The problem remains snowfall as usual.
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Not so sure about the Christmas torch, at least according to yesterday's Euro weeklies. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512060000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202512150000
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Miserable runs for many.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
mitchnick replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Pattern sets up and then you're fighting it all winter. I'm tired of doing it but it's been the case ever since I moved to here. It's either north, south, east, or west after a long string of years when I lived in MD and Hanover jackpoted. I am snakebit. -
Gefs says yes, Eps has a ridge rolling in at 348hrs. Don't fall in love with either possibility, but Eps has been warm in the LR this fall/early winter fwiw.
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I remember that vividly. Have a number of pics from that day in anticipation due to some funky clouds and during the event. I think Bob Chill was in his garage enjoy I ng it if memory serves.
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Didn't see that, but the NWS forecast was cloudy.
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Got a dusting and coming down pretty good. This wasn't in the forecast.
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Here too to my surprise
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Actually,it was intended to be a bit facetious, but accurate, joke. He actually pointed out good numbers on the SOI showing the Niña fading, but the SOI numbers themselves were "negative."
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Do you always have to be so negative?
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That makes 2 of us!
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That post was based on the 12z runs. There have been 4 runs since and the AI has come up with 4 different forecasts. Apparently, it needs my time to learn.
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Updated Euro seasonal out and it can't get out of its own way insisting on AN temps in the east. Don't buy it as mby has been BN for October and November contrary to the Eps seasonal. Heck, even September was only +.5F, also cooler than forecasted. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
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https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html
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Hrrr support from the Srefs
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18z Rgem came north fwiw.
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No! We've seen failures in shorter times. Lol
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18z Nam's a wreck. I think we're better off if the 12/5 threat fizzled and left some energy behind for our next long shot.
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In a word....Ughhh
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Watch the follow-up on the Gfs. Might be something, might not.
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The question is whether the 6z Euro being its over-amped self. Idk
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Fwiw, 12z Rgem went a bit south of 6z. Not worth posting.
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Fine. I'm starting a thread for each separate model run beginning with 12z today in an effort to confuse it.
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For once, the trend is our friend. But when you think about it, it's looking like a typical north trend. Hopefully, 48hrs isn't enough time for too much. Of course, now that I said that, it'll shift south at 12z!
