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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Ukie ensembles have shifted north a bit from last run putting MDT in the center instead of mby. Canadians were fine by me for days even though being on the southern side. But with them taking the near inevitable north jog it'll be a problem if it continues. Not that they will definitely be right, but all modeling is starting a north shift a bit.
  2. mitchnick
    You've always had his best interests at heart.
  3. mitchnick
    Fyi, 0z AI showed an overrunning type snow event next Monday and then a couple more shots after that, but the later ones ar best north. Can't be stated enough that the AI is all over the place like other modeling in the long run.
  4. mitchnick
    6z Eps shifted south from 0z. Good test to see if the operational and Eps head toward the AI. 6z was the first step toward the AI.
  5. mitchnick
    Honestly, I have yet to watch 1 local forecast since we bought the place in Fall 2019. Too bad for the Mets, but the way of the media world is podcasts, YouTube, TicToc, etc.
  6. mitchnick
    Gfs and Euro closer for Tuesday. But not there yet. AI is a miss but has several hits the following week, better north. Of course, at that range, AI is hit or miss
  7. mitchnick
    UGHHHHHHHH........
  8. mitchnick
    Canadians have reduced snowfall either due to a further north position (Rgem) or less qpf as the 6z GEM is more like 4-8" vs the 8-12" it had yesterday.
  9. mitchnick
    Morning all. Early night for this old man. Georgia? Ummm....I hope that doesn't mean TWC.
  10. mitchnick
    3k is decent but not over the top like the Rgem
  11. mitchnick
    Ncep programmers are trying start local fights among the Mid Atlantic weenies.
  12. mitchnick
    3k is a really good run for all.
  13. mitchnick
    I meant to add that the Hrrr was putting heavy snows over SC PA last Monday, as in 6-9", and that never happened. It's apparently over amped so further adjustments east are likely imho.
  14. mitchnick
    Pretty big, but not unsurprising, shift eastward from 18z.
  15. mitchnick
    TCC comes in with a chart that he contends proves -2 temps now don't feel as cold as -2 temps 30 years ago despite what the thermometer reads.
  16. mitchnick
    18z AI looks around the same as 12z, which ain't a bad thing.
  17. mitchnick
    Probably right unless the Canadians are the Gretzky of the event.
  18. mitchnick
    18z still have the end of the month events, but they are both weaker. 1st one is a period of light precip but 2nd one is probably. 3-.4". Good news is it is cold enough for snow, at least it is for the 2nd event.
  19. mitchnick
    18z AI looks very close to 12z, so I'd be guessing if I said more.
  20. mitchnick
    Don't know if you're interested, here is the Ukie ensembles qpf and snowfall. Not west.
  21. mitchnick
    Interesting how the accumulating snow line on the latest Srefs is near identical to the Rgem. Hmmm... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025011721&fh=87&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  22. mitchnick
    Just looked at the 21z Rap that goes out 51 hrs. Slp looks a lot like the Rgem but snow amounts are not as good in most places. I know it's useless at this range, but was curious and I don'thave a cat. Lol Surprised to see it look a lot like the Rgem. Here's a link that I think is free on Pivotal. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011721&fh=loop&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  23. mitchnick
    Weird part is the 12z Eps snowfall is pretty decent considering the operational. Maybe a bone from the AI will show up.
  24. mitchnick
    Fixed
  25. mitchnick
    18z Ggem. Wow again. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off
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