mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Kuchie looks the same
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Maybe not as regularly crappy as operationals, ensembles can be crappy too with their lower resolution. But if this threat fails, this has got to be the worst ensemble fail in a long time. The 24 hr ensemble means, total means, as well as medians. Simply apocalyptic should this fail imho. And the big numbers were across every ensemble.
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Ukie
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Random thought as I'm waiting for 0z runs, it looks like one our problems contributing to the southerly solutions is that low pressure that slides off the SC coast around 6z Monday. That really lowers heights along the coast and there's not quite enough time for heights to rebound.
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This part 1 and 2 qpf. It "may" be or may not be a little high or low, but not more than .05" either way.
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Yes
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Here's part 2 qpf
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I broke the rules, because I'm such a rebel, and posted about 2/16 and 2/20 as big storm threats in next week's thread. Easier to check them out on Pivotal or TT around 9:30.
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Gets close
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Another monster, probably the best for all parts of the forum, on 2/20. CORRECTION: It's not quite as big as I thought but it's decent. I thought I had the qpf maps on 6 hour maps but it was on 12 hour. Sorry....and shut up JI!
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I thought the same. There's only so much energy to be split between the 2 in one way or the other.
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In case anybody cares, though I know this thread is for next week, looks like there's a PD2.5. As depicted, coastal areas to best but heavy precip went west of Rt. 15.
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Part 2 of the storm is weaker, colder and all snow for most DC north.
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AI Tuesday storm kicked back north by maybe 30-40+ miles. It's a start maybe.
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Hey, if it works out, maybe your wife will agree to move south!
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Heartless bastid!
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Beggers...
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Hopefully, Eps will prevail. 120hrs for storm 1 and 144hrs for 2, or part of it.
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Orange we happy! P.s. sorta borrowed that from Bubbler
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At 120 hrs there's little doubt in my mind that the warmth to the south will put us all above freezing based on these maps as the slp passes well west of us. BUT, I'm not saying (yet) the Icon is right, though the trend toward it is there.
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North of DC loses with the Icon. But the Icon also says everybody's snow gets washed away, soooo...
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The Icon says you get around 4" before it's washed away, while I only get 2-2.5" before it gets washed away.
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Speaking of which....18z Icon. Lol
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Not that Nam will be right, but at typical 3:1 sleet ratios, that's about 2-2.5" imby. At least some of that should last until Tuesday, so any snow that falls will accumulate immediately.
