mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Thermals (850's) thru central VA are fine from Monday until Saturday between 6z and 12z. Based on slp locations, I would expect all levels to be fine as well.
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1st flakes start before 12z Tiesday and don't end until just before 13z Wednesday. Then there's a second wave that comes in on Thursday that's probably a 2-4". Then Saturday has another event but we lose 850's after a modest accumulation.
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6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!!
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Since we're now talking less than 5 days before start time, if the 6z AI comes in looking close to the 0z run or better, imho you can start getting cocky again about a big event.
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Not out until 8. But the 0z that Will posted was Grrrrreat!
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6z Euro/Eps only go out 144hrs as most know. 6z looks better that 0z with only a slight shave off the southern portion.
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I'm done for the night.
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Lol
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Here's the problem. 12z vs 0z. SER is a killer and trough out west is digging more, which is what's pumping the SER.
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Not bad.
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What a mess.
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Better be. I need my beauty rest.
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Now I'm stuck staying up for the Euro. Ughh
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Yeah, it decided to dump almost 2" at 162hrs and an inch+ the next 6 hours, so it's almost caught up to 18z. About .5" less.
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Gefs at 156hrs are already different from 18z, so they can change fast too.
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Hard to believe these operational runs in light of the ensembles.
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Ukie is a miss to central VA but the evolution is different.
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Won't be surprised if Gem has a round 2.
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Gfs is probably overdoing the 1st wave which then pulls the boundary south. No other model has it that I recall.
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AI is back. Still a bit light on qpf, but that'll surely change over the next few runs I bet.
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Forget the AI outside of 3 or 4 days. Seriously.
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It only goes out to 168hrs. Here's the map.
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Ukie looked a lot like them too and 12z Icon wasn't far off either.
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Rest of the run snowless? I see a storm in the Gulf at day 14 or so.
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