mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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You said the good ensembles started on 2/3 so adding 15 or 16 days takes us to the 18th/19th, which is Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Runs after 2/3 would certainly extend the period.
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Not debating, just stating why I'm doubting the numbers on some maps and that it plays into the bust potential. Bust potential is based on expectations.
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By Thursday at 7pm, Euro has this on the ground. Boy, that was fast.
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That then takes us to early/mid next week. Not looking good to expect anything near double digits that were being shown on those runs.
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Pivotal snowfall maps are much more conservative than WxBell again. This is another reason why I believe the bust potential here and to our south is high. Expectations are just too high based on those WxBell maps that never work out imby.
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Maybe we'll get a quick correction with threats as the week continues because the latest Gefs and Eps now get the wave into phase 8 by the Thursday or Friday this week!
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They all are. That's why I posted in the MA forum and here I believe that ensemble support without the operationals advertising chances gives me no confidence of anything. As for this week, there is an usually high number of models that are not great even in MD. There is imho a much higher bust potential for totals between surface temps and qpf. Recall I mentioned this morning that the AI cut qpf for us and down into MD/DC areas.
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Iow, this one ain't ours unless the Nams are correct.
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Rgem is really bad for PA.
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That's who I'm thinking. Lol
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Who? I don't do OT but I can guess.
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If you recall, Gfs and other modeling was calling for a PV split this week, then backed off. It's still a good hit, but is now showing a follow-up hit at the end of the run that almost does split it cleanly. Scroll thru this link to see what I'm talking about https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2025021006&fh=6
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Nam goes with hours of rn imby after the changeover, so hopefully that's overdone in typical Nam fashion.
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Feel better soon. My covid a month ago went fairly fast but I'm a firm believer in vitamin D and zinc. Need at least 5000iu of D.
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Round 2 adds to it in many areas.
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It's odd how the past week or so the ensembles have been dropping more snow than the operationals. I can't recall seeing that for such an extended period. It's usually the operationals dumping large amounts and the ensembles being paultry. I'm one confused weenie!
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6z AI cut back even more on qpf. If it's closer to right than wrong, a whole lot of folks in MD will be unhappy. Some in this forum actually have a shot at doing better with round 2 than 1.
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It's almost shocking to me to see the 0z Eps snowfall imby. Basically drops 5.2" between 2/15 and 2/23, and neither the Euro nor any other operational has didly. Fun or sad times ahead I guess. Lol
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By the way, AI has pushed a lot of precip for tomorrow south. But until other modeling agrees, not worth worrying about.
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Fwiw, AI looking better next week with 3 threats. A light even 2/19, a mod/heavy on 2/21-22, and a final event on 2/25 that's light but heavy precip south of rain & snow which could easily trend better as the 21-22 has over the past few runs. This run is sure to reel Heisey in. Lol
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I'm sick of seeing decent looks on ensembles that rarely materialize on the operationals. There's nothing on operationals after this week. Even the 0z AI has a light snow on 2/22, but that could be gone on the 6z. I'll let you know in 20 minutes.
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This made me chuckle. Top map is the operational Euro total snowfall from 2/5 12z and bottom is last night's 0z Euro. Poor ENE. They did have a 4-6" event Saturday, but that's still a nasty haircut.
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Just have to hope Gfs is correct with a colder/drier part 1 leads to a colder/snowier part 2. Hugging the Gfs almost gives me a bad taste in my mouth. Lol
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Part 2 action ftw in central PA.
