mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Icon a big hit for us again.
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I'm still a mix for Saturday night and Sunday. They sometimes treat my area as the bastid child being so close to MD and lumping our forecast with Lwx's northern MD forecasts, or so it seems.
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The only difference up here in PA is a weaker storm with .1" less qpf on the mean. No rain/sleet/snow issues on the mean. Less qpf dropped snowfall map by an inch or less depending on your exact location. Boost the qpf, and we're right back to 0z run.
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Don't know if anybody looks at it, but Pivotal offers the "NWS Blend of Midels," which is a combo of models. It's basically an ensemble type product using operational models, which makes more sense theoretically since they have better resolution than ensemble suites. Anyway, here's the link. It has been gradually increasing snow totals in case you were wondering. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2024010207&fh=11&r=us_state_pa&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Yeah, that is lol worthy!
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I am not worthy!!!
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Gefs
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Bliz, you see the Gfs yet? Youzah
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Icon
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Hmm...look where the Icon puts the next event's slp. Coldish too.
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Oh yeah. It's north
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Icon definitely coming up to us per 108hrs maps imho.
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Practice squad: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010121&fh=87&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&m=srefens
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Ur right.
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Yes. Better for ratios, which won't show up on 10:1 ensemble maps.
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18z Eps snowfall. Really close to 12z. Slight reduction due to slight reduction in qpf. System behind it is getting it out of here by 12z Sunday.
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They have me as snow on Saturday after 1pm and then rain and snow Saturday night and Sunday. I would make a snarky remark but don't want to jinx myself!
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I was just kidding, hence the lol. No, after retiring last year from 40 years as a lawyer in MD, I'm pretty content with being brain dead looking at weather models during the first decent Niño in 8 years.
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So where exactly do I go to find this "life" you reference. Lol
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Agree, but you don't need snow to shovel...just read my posts.
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Hope so. Time to worry. Lol On an unrelated note, the 18z Gefs snowfall map is uncannily similar to the 12z Eps. Don't recall seeing such agreement by those 2 ensemble products at this range and for such a significant snowstorm.
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Weenie rule of thumb #3: Worry often and worry hard.
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IF the Gfs is close to being right, we'll have bare, rock hard frozen ground a couple of days after this. Nice
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After the 2nd cutter we get our chance the way the trough is aligning on the Gfs. Of course, could be wrong.
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Qpf only thru 286hrs on 18z Gfs
