mitchnick

Unfortunately, that private company, despite their name, has got to find something on every model run to pimp their pov. Temp difference in the east between the 2 runs is negligible without a mention of it in their post.

I think if you liked last year, you'll like this year and vice-versa. Fwiw, Enso will not be quite as cool as last year, but subsurface probably close.

Last year's 9/1 forecast for 12/24-2/25 very similar.

In contrast, this was the Cansips forecast from 9/24 for 12/24-2/25. Pretty similar all things considered.

3 month temp average off the latest Cansips. Fwiw, Cansips has a Niño developing by next summer, but it's record with long term Enso forecasts ain't so hot.

New Cansips is out. Looks like it's August forecast with D-F temps at or ever so slightly AN. It may be a hair warmer than last month the further south you go. Does look dry as it did last month. Until we shake the Niña, or Niña like features equatorially, we stay on the dry side. Fwiw, it does have a Niño developing next summer.

Being on the eastern flank of the BN temps with the Atlantic to our east looks pretty palatable to these weenie eyes.

MDT was -10.4 for 8/30 and Capital City Airport was -13.4. Interesting considering Capital City records go back to 1939 and MDT only 1992.

Stop reading the CC forum or you'll go blind! Seriously, Euro weeklies have winds at 10mb dying down if that forecast can be trusted.

I haven't followed JB at all for 10 years or so. Almost don't have to since enough people do and post his musings.

I noticed over in the MA Medium Range thread that the Euro weeklies have been getting progressively cooler as the forecast periods approach. Interestingly, while searching for any tidbits for early winter thoughts on YouTube, I found a September forecast from Bam Weather. It looks like I'm not the only one who noticed the changes on the weeklies. According to Bam, both the regular Eps products and Gefs have been too warm lately. Otoh, the EPS AI has been much better. I put the link to the video below and it's got some decent info in addition to the comments on the EPS AI. Take a look if you get a chance. More importantly, the performance of the EPS AI should probably be followed through the Fall to see if it holds any edge come winter.

As you may have noticed over in the Medium Range thread, the Euro weeklies have been getting progressively cooler as the forecast periods approach. Interestingly, while searching for any tidbits for early winter thoughts on YouTube, I found a September forecast from Bam Weather. It looks like I'm not the only one who noticed the changes on the weeklies. According to Bam, both the regular Eps products and Gefs have been too warm lately. Otoh, the EPS AI has been much better. I put the link to the video below and it's got some decent info in addition to the comments on the EPS AI. Take a look if you get a chance. More importantly, the performance of the EPS AI should probably be followed through the Fall to see if it holds any edge come winter.

They are pretty loud up here. Actually, a few years ago (17 year) they basically stayed about 4 miles to our west. This year is actually worse. Their time is short as I'm seeing more and more on the sidewalks.

8 runs in a row now that the Cfs2 is showing a BN September for the MA, SNE, TN Valley, OV, etc. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025083000&fh=1 Fwiw, Cansips had it on its 8/1 update, but Cfs2 didn't.

Come on back. Maybe that's the problem!

This 30-day change map suggests that a lot of the cooling in the N Atlantic has been in the last 30 days...Irene?

I don't get why these mets bother to post anything when they highlight "*may*" happen. Nothing more than posting for the sake of posting. Moreover, if you look at the AN temps in the Atlantic, most average at or below +1C. If we get the expected +NAO winter, I seriously doubt it'll be SSTA driven. Of course, the original post and my comments all hinge on SSTA remaining stable through the winter, which is doubtful considering it's still August. So we're back to posting for the sake of posting. P.s. I meant to add a lot of that cooling was Irene, so it could be temporary.

Last time since 9/1 is upon us. Coolest yet.

That's pretty much always been the case for us down here to get any snow, especially as you go south of the PA/MD border.

I thought it was posted more because Snowman agrees with his suggestion of an uptick in tropical activity would be no surprise, MJO going into favorable phases and not warmer maritime phases, and the cold coming between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Some of us oldsters are pretty fast on those wheels!

First of all, I was responding to Michigan's comment that September this year wouldn't be as warm as 9/17, not to precip. That said, Euro weeklies are updated every day as I'm sure you know, so they would include newer information than the monthly comprising info thru the end of July. Here's a link to yesterday's Euro weeklies precip forecast. 1 out of 6 weeks shows the NE BN precip and 5 show normal. So if I was going to be worried, I'm not. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

Euro weeklies say we won't. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

Cold the week of 9/1 continues to expand in area and get a bit deeper.

I'm not so sure I'd be looking at solar at this point. True, there's been a big jump in activity the last day or 2, but that's after a big drop. The overall trend is down looking at everything at the link below. Plus, it's too early. If we're rolling ahead hot and heavy come November, imho, then we take a 2nd look at possible curveballs to the forecast. https://solen.info/solar/index.html