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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. Marcus??? He hasn't posted here ever, unless he's posting under another name.
  2. Gefs gives us all <1". Euro better be right, or a lot closer to right than wrong.
  3. Wow. That's 3 runs in a row, but not much room for error.
  4. I doubt the Ukie will ever happen, but at least it gives credence to Euro solution.
  5. Ukie snow https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024123100&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  6. That end of the Gem run looked like it had possibilities. But that's what this night of runs has come to I guess.
  7. If that gets shredded, then the writings on the wall for the Euro. Unless the Euro is on its own by moving that monster 50/50 low.
  8. It really needs to keep that closed 5H low intact as long as possible to hold it together.
  9. The only way for the storm to bust thru that block is with a tight, closed low, which is what the Icon had and now the Gfs.
  10. At 132hrs, 0z Gfs 5H looks almost identical to 18z Euro if you can believe it.
  11. Idk, Gfs seems to really be making something out of that Friday clipper, which is only going to push the boundary further south. Other models aren't doing that I don't believe.
  12. From what I'm seeing, it feels the effects of the storm off the coast, which interrupts it's flow and the dynamics, so it just peters out. Storm off the coast needs to move out or vort needs to slow. But slowing the vort could leed to a whole new set of problems, known and unknown, imho.
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