mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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12z Ukie looks like it might bring the storm far enough north to hit us, but temps are an issue, of course. Ukie only goes out 144hrs, so I can't say for sure. But it's a decent 5h look which I've linked. I also link a loop of the 6hr precip maps. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=500h_anom&rh=2024012112&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2024012112&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Reviewing the Oisst graph, the first day Enso 3.4 was at or greater than +2.0 was on November 20 and the last day was January 5. During that 47 day period, it was at or above +2.0 only 32 days, with highest reading of approximately +2.17 on November 25. Of the 32 days above +2.0, only 11 were at or above +2.10. I don't know if it makes it to the Super category, but if it does, it's the bastard child of the bunch.
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Upper level trough
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Eps is a big OUCH! 1/2" snowfall for 360 hours that includes prime snowfall climo. Extended Eps as of yesterday put a trough in the SE in the mean the week starting 2/12. Gotta hope that's right.
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Today's blowing and drifting snow is reminiscent of not so recent years gone by.
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That's flat-out unfair. Lol
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This run of the Gfs and Gefs lost their luster for it. Signal not as good looking on the Gefs, but they move around like the operational.
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J/k np
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I resemble that remark.
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Like I said, i hope we can steal one because the pattern sux. But a slow moving, closed u/l low that changes from rain to snow is the perfect spring snowstorm scenario.
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This is how we steal one on a lousy pattern. 18z Gfs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024011918&fh=231&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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And that fast, back to very lt snow.
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I'm 8 miles from the MD border, so I don't see why not.
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Hate to be a pain, but heavy again. Somebody else needs to experience one of these.
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Incoming central PA https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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Just measuted another 1", so add that to the just under 4" and I'll call it 4.75" and still snowing mod.
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Very localized. Lwx radar has some real impressive ones.
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Going to have to go out and measure again once it's done.
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Nuts here.
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Mod to heavy now.
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Just checked radar after the post. Looks like a small streamer enhancing snowfall. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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Sky has darkened and lt snow has picked up. I guess the grand finale is approaching.
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Anyone venture to guess when and where the effects of the SSW will/may occur, if any?
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Lt snow has continued non-stop and has slowly but surely accumulated to just under 4". I'll call it 4" because I'm not measuring again and snow continues. Wind is starting to blow snows off trees and roofs. Looks like real winter again before fall returns next week. Lol
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Agree with everything but would add that it's a thin overcast and I've been seeing the sun off and on through the morning ever since the heavy stuff moved out. Add to that the fact we're at a solar max, which I know I've mentioned a couple times recently already, and that boosts the melting process.
