mitchnick

Orthopedic surgeons will have a banner 2025.

Or flatten the Appalachians.

Every location is different and I don't claim to know the various climos around PA, only mine. If I had to guess right now, I would say plus or minus 1-2 degrees from normal Dec-Feb average. So close enough to normal that most normal people won't notice. But considering how warm winters have been of late, my guess is the average person will feel it cold even if not technically BN. Snow is the bigger issue for most of us and, so far at least, I'm not getting a great feeling about that imby due to dryness and the insufferable warm/wet-dry/cold tendencies of a Niña or cold neutral. Maybe different away from me, idk. P.s. Of course, this could change, but I'm basing it on what I've seen so far. Feb or March could be our wild cards for the better.

Although signs point to a cooler/colder January, models are indicating a little BN precip. That could change, but that change could mean drier too. What a hobby.

And so are us snow weenies.

GEFS having a hard time making up it's mind in the long range between runs. End of the 12z run 850 anomalies on top and end of the 18z on the bottom. 500mb maps with similar looks.

Interesting how the Euro weeklies keep delaying the warmup in the east. Yesterday's run keeps the east BN or within the normal scale thru 1/6. The only AN is the week of 1/6-1/13, and only gets it into the lowest AN scale of +.5-1C. The good news being, if correct, that won't prohibited snow chances completely being so close to the climo minimum.

This Pic of 11/25 SSTA forecast from updated Cansips is for Larry.

Here you go Jerry. Updated maps on TT. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024120100&fh=0

100% on that. The ground was snow covered almost all of January. Then, February flipped warm mid month and March was around +5 at BWI. Maybe because I was younger in 76/77, but I found 93/94 to be even more brutal, though not as unrelenting as 76/77.

Not interested. I think BWI (mby at the time) had a lousy 12" or so that winter.

Coldest winter on record in the east will get you those numbers, but that was far from the norm. I walked 200' out onto the frozen Chesapeake Bay that winter in January, 1977 at Sandy Point State Park. The Chesapeake Bay never froze like that again.

Helluva way to run a warmup on the Geps at the end of its run.

Looks like there must be a few members on the Gefs bringing the storm up the coast. Va/NC hit off the table this run...thank you Gypsy Helen for that reading today. You were right! Lol

Time to bring out the trusty "cold/dry, wet/warm" montra.

For me...yes. Clearfield, probably snow, at least in part.

12z Gem is going to look a lot like the Euro rainstorm I believe.

Needless to say, another Gfs mirage disappears.

Cuts off sw trough like Euro and n stream vort is indistinguishable

12z Gfs looks way different than 0z and 06 thru 144hrs.

Icon definitely not the Euro, but slower evolution than Gfs thru 180hrs.

Fwiw, Icon looks like Gfs'ish thru 174hrs.

I agree about everything being possible at this point. But seeing a Va/NC snowstorm for basically 3 runs in a row on the Gfs and then one pops up on the Gem last night, and I'm already googling grief counselors in the area!

So many possibilities with this one, but the Gfs/Gem scare me if it does emerge as a snowstorm vs the Euro rainstorm. Niñas are infamous for Va/NC snowstorms and the evolution "currently" advertised on the Gfs/Gem are just that, and except for a few tease runs showing a northward progression, they often fail to make it north of Fredericksburg, VA. Believe me when I say, from a BWI perspective where I spent most of my life, it is painful to suck cirrus through dim sunlight. Looking ahead at the ensembles and weeklies, this appears to be our only shot at a decent, accumulating snowfall before the pattern relaxation i.e. warming, though not outrageously so. All this is not to say that an 0z Euro scenario isn't out of the question, just that I have deeper scares from the southern fails. Lol

Even with the relaxation period, ensembles maintain a trough over or near Japan, which imho suggests the favorable pattern will return in some form or another aftet a few weeks.