Funny thing is, although the Gem looked pretty good at 12z, as recently as the 0z Thursday run it showed a squashed whiff like the Ukie, Gfs and likely 18z Icon would show. Should have stayed the course instead of going dark.
Cmc as recently as Thursday's 0z showed nothing for Thanksgiving. May have been the first to be right only to go dark before maybe correcting again. Hope not.
Just checked Icon at 120 hrs and it's colder, but stops early this run. Maybe a nod to Ukie and AIEuro, idk. That 50/50 Low is growing into a monster, so maybe it is a crusher. We'll see.
There's an inch over central and southern PA at 42 hrs on the mean and 2" at 198 hrs. So a mean of 1" for next weekend potential is not great.
But I did just check for the first time this winter the AIEuro and it misses is pretty far south, further than the Ukie. So it's just wait and see until Monday when we have a little better consensus.
It's getting there. Ukie is a bit suppressed and cold enough for all snow for all of PA. Good spot this far out on the Ukie imho. Great 12z runs imho considering we're 6 +/- days away.
I had 3 years of French in elementary school, 3 years in high school, and 2 semesters in college, and the best I can do now is conjugate a few verbs. Lol