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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    6z Gfs operational is a surprisingly cold run vs recent ones....fwiw?
  2. mitchnick
    Problem with the Gefs map I posted and the maps you posted are the 10:1 ratios. We won't see that. A lot of white rain for the umpteenth time over the last few years.
  3. mitchnick
    The cold this week is going to outperform the cold last week. Believe me. Models have been going colder and colder.
  4. mitchnick
    6z Gefs seems to like snow chances more than operational 6z
  5. mitchnick
    Not that I disagree with the 2 week warm period, but this trough/cold later this week is trending noticeably colder than just 2 days ago. Imby, it's looking colder than the cold this past week. But that will just be glossed over by most. P.s. That's a cold run on the 6z Gfs fwiw
  6. mitchnick
    Wait till' you get old.
  7. mitchnick
    Having the cold drapped across southern Canada is reassuring we have a close source of cold to tap unlike many previous years. L
  8. mitchnick
    Today’s weeklies run look as good or better than yesterday with again, only 1 warmish week across entire central and eastern US.
  9. mitchnick
    Snowman may have a thought or 2 why the WB maps are colder. Might want to ask him...and then duck!
  10. mitchnick
    Larry, Tip posted this yesterday in the NE forum, which "may" be related to it, idk as I really didn't bother to look into it. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61325-december-2024-best-look-to-an-early-december-pattern-in-many-a-year/?do=findComment&comment=7489944
  11. mitchnick
    What I wasn't prepared for when we went out was it was not smooth. It was a bunch of slippery, sharp-edged chunks in varying sizes. I almost fell a couple of times and still remember thinking how lucky I was I didn't because I know I'd have been real sorry if I had. Lol
  12. mitchnick
    In January 77', couple of friends and I went to Sandy Point State Park on the west side of the Chesapeake Bay bridge and walked out on the frozen Chesapeake Bay around 200'. Once in a lifetime chance at doing that. Otoh, BWI had around 12" for that winter, so the winter itself sorta sucked in my feeble weenie mind.
  13. mitchnick
    Per Joe D’Aleo at WB: “Strat warm favored in west QBO near solar max” https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/?do=findComment&comment=7489229
  14. mitchnick
    Good points Larry, but with michsnowfreak being in...Michigan, his excitement is justified imho. I know I'd be right there with him if I was in Michigan.
  15. mitchnick
    Surprise, surprise! Only 1 warm week on today's weeklies. January really looking like the Canadian January forecast. Of course, that's as of today. It'll change again tomorrow, hopefully colder!
  16. mitchnick
    If you put it into motion, the trough is retrograding west which, if correct and it continues, should build heights along the west coast. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2024120606&fh=loop&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=
  17. mitchnick
    No guarantee that the consequences of the SSW will benefit the Conus. If the cold goes somewhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, it could mean we get the warm end of the stick. We just need the right pattern without risking an already difficult task. That's the way I see it. Of course, if we're snowless and warm come mid-Feb, then it's Hail Mary time and I'm all in. Lol
  18. mitchnick
    We're better off with a weakened PV like the Euro is showing vs SSW. And the Euro doesn't even have to be right for that matter. Just keep the PV from looking like the great Saturn storm and we'll have a chance imho.
  19. mitchnick
    Doesn't strike me as a very wet pattern on the EC, which just adds to difficulty for getting a decent snow event(s).
  20. mitchnick
    TT MONTHLY CFS maps are based on last 12 forecasts of 1 member TT WEEKLY CFS maps are based on last 12 forecasts of 4 members. CFS site uses 40 members 4 runs a day for prior 10 days. So you will get different results, but WB is always inexplicably colder.
  21. mitchnick
    Cansips February forecast looks similar to the last Euro weekly forecast on that tweet fwiw.
  22. mitchnick
    Thanks Larry. Do you have the NA 500mb map handy for January? This temp forecast with the colder SW and SC Canada into the Dakotas and GL seems to have support from the various CFS sources and Cansips fwiw. Thanks again.
  23. mitchnick
    Line that came thru here was snow, but really dried up despite radar returns.
  24. mitchnick
    My wife makes THE best chocolate chip cookies and last year I said "why not dip 1/2 in melted chocolate. " Oh boy are they delicious. I mention it only because I'm making a pig out of myself with them now waiting for snow (I hope.) Just sayin'
  25. mitchnick
    Line of heavy precip in my doorstep. Rain or snow? Stay tuned...OK then, turn off the TV, I don't care.
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