mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Imho, unless we can get the tpv to speed up or the storm to slow allowing the tpv to get close enough to yank it back west, we'll have a real hard time getting to double digits west of the Bay.
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Your literary prowess intrigues me.
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With few exceptions, this is how a lot of our big storms looked 5-6 days out.
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If it's like the Ukie, and I haven't looked closely, north and west precip may be from tpv interaction.
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Idk, Ukie just might do a 1/25/00 with that H5.
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We got ours 3 weeks ago when DC got next to nothing and BWI got 1". You and I got 6.5". We've had our fun this winter. Lol
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Anything is possible, but if the NWS can issue probability forecasts, why can't I? Lol
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Euro had 1 great run a week before yesterday's storm so my gut says we'll lose the amped storm with N&W doing best. In fact, gun to head, I'll be shocked if I get more than 40-50% of DC or more than 50-60% of BWI. Seasonal trends are a biatch. But if the pattern holds into March, I could see us scoring big and the cities getting mix/rain. Speculation by me based on history fwiw.
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SV are straight 10:1 . It's a cold storm so Kuchera will show more always.
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That's everything on the run
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We agree I think. They need to show a hit of some degree, light to blizzard. Just not all blizzards because that will never hold.
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Honestly, it's a bit early for everything to show a blizzard. It will never hold because there are just too many things that can go wrong imho.
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It delayed which gave things a chance to rebound.
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Icon. Fast rebound. Lol
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Icon block is further south so not looking great at 144hrs
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We will eventually, but seasonal patterns are hard to break and so eventually may end up being next winter.
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You might be right on the theory that a colder Saturday suggests more blocking and that is likely to hold next week and push our storm south. I don't think it would, though, but do believe the final track of next week's threat will be effected by this weekend's storm i.e. this weekend is the table setter. In that regard, a track further west would be better I think. But it's all pure speculation.
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Could be worse...could have been a double play.
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Not feeling it down here for Saturday. Looks like Lancaster north and east will do pretty well though.
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Getting foggy in Hanover
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More members west of the mean than east. Seems like a few far east members may be pulling the mean east.
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One positive I see on the 0z Eps is that the bulk of the slp members are west of the mean.
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I have a chance of snow in my forecast fwiw.
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That's the problem with getting the storm up to us.
