mitchnick

HH Gefs ends with a fantasy map. Could any weenie have drawn that up any better?

You'll be missing that 47 come the 3 weeks+ after New years.

I agree, but the progged January can't last forever. But if I can see the snowfall the Eps are showing, I've got no problem dealing with a relax. Just hoping it doesn't mean the end of winter. Even cold winters have relaxation periods. But we may have an Ace in the hole with a SSW as So_Whats_Happening posted earlier. We'll see on that because consequences are always iffy even when they occur.

Snowman will be getting excited over the last week on the Eps weeklies. Finally a trough in Alaska after colder weeks 1-3. Week 2 is crazy cold now.

I definitely think "a" cold pattern returns, but probably not identical to what we've seen so far and what January will offer.

Absolutely the pattern relaxes the end of January into early February. But this year has taught 1 thing if nothing else, and that is to throw out the historically expected atmospheric responses. It seems to be on a mission of its own despite what we may think based on the analogs.

I wouldn't count on Maritime interference with gusto by the end of January. Most of the forecasts are slowly moving toward this Cfs forecast by staying out of the COD in phases 8-2, though the Cfs may be a bit too strong in the Indian Ocean.

Threat is still there, but no details yet.

I'll see your Ensembles, and raise you the Eps weekly snow anomalies! Lol Undoubtedly, the best I've ever seen since this product has been offered by Pivotal. 3 solid weeks in a row.

It'll trend...It'll trend.

Euro AI was a little drunk for the past day or so but sobered up at 12z.

Ok

Acceptable snows on the 18z Gfs, but too far out to bother posting. Gee, I guess that means I'm not a weenie anymore!

Lake Marburg in Codorus is get real low again after a decent recovery in the fall.

18z Gfs says keep wishing againt an I-95 KU pattern...please?

One caveat on the possible SSW. We have had an extremely anomalous PV; hat tip to Snowman banging that drum. Notwithstanding, the shape/trajectory has not precluded the cold, and possibly enhanced it, idk. But if we get that warming as progged, that may alter the trajectory but not be enough to help the threat of cold/snow in the east. I have no control over it, obviously, but I think I'd prefer leaving 10mb alone at this point. Lol

Fyi. In addition to more detailed forecast info on the Ukie, Pivotal also offers for free the Ukie Ensembles in case you didn't know. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens

Agree on the return of trades after westerlies, but not so sure I'm sold on the certainty of that poster. If I recall, Patel was predicting a few months ago with a lot of confidence how the Niña was coming and it was delayed as we now know. Not a lot of late peaking Niñas and latest forecasts from the Euro and Cfs say it starts to fade in January, so whether Niña intensifies remains a question to me. Of course, Patel didn't say if the Niña would begin cooling again after trades return, so I'm not sure what value it is as to a forecast.

Someone who hated snow maybe?

Euro's last monthly forecast did a pretty good job with the drop. IF it maintains its forecast accuracy, it hascthe Niña peaking mid-January. Euro monthly updates in around 10 days or so, so maybe it changes. I do think the westerlies the Eps has sneaking in before restarting trades will at least stall further cooling and may, I said may (lol), interrupt the cooling process despite resumption of the trades. That would coincidence with the Euro's monthly forecast it seems. Obviously, this is 1 possible scenario. We'll see.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

It should. I just wish the waffling would end and the Gfs would stop ending on a pending bomb. Merry Christmas to all.

Can't help but think with that kind of contrast between air and sea, it will help with developing low pressure.

Larry, have you ever seen such a huge area of BN off the Atlantic seaboard on the weeklies? I can't recall it.

Today's weeklies looked to have gotten colder for week 2. Plus, the AN for the last week that was there yesterday is gone as a reload from sw Canada appears imminent. Recall I mentioned a few days ago how it looked like a possible pattern repeat due to cold air building from sw Canada. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412240000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501060000