mitchnick

It really needs to keep that closed 5H low intact as long as possible to hold it together.

The only way for the storm to bust thru that block is with a tight, closed low, which is what the Icon had and now the Gfs.

At 132hrs, 0z Gfs 5H looks almost identical to 18z Euro if you can believe it.

Idk, Gfs seems to really be making something out of that Friday clipper, which is only going to push the boundary further south. Other models aren't doing that I don't believe.

From what I'm seeing, it feels the effects of the storm off the coast, which interrupts it's flow and the dynamics, so it just peters out. Storm off the coast needs to move out or vort needs to slow. But slowing the vort could leed to a whole new set of problems, known and unknown, imho.

Kuchie

Icon's a hit

Icon looking better at 138hrs. Should be north of 12z.

I see why you remembered that run and I didn't. Lol

At 4/day, I can't remember them all. Lol

Yeah, telling us we'll need to wait until the weekend.

Actually, I see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

EuroAI has a lot to learn methinks.

Euro AI takes southern piece and spawns a coastal that is better south. Here's precip link. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2024123018&fh=222&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Actually, I see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

Actually, I see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

Just lost the 18z EuroAI. Crushed south.

Weeklies have done pretty darn good so far. The upgrade seemed to actually be an upgrade. That said, weeklies now show a break in the cold for the first 10 days of February. However, it's not prohibitively warm for snows in the Mid Atlantic on north since that period us near climo lows provided the right pattern. More to my point, weeklies have the last 4 days in January and first 10 days in February decently AN with precip. If I was in NYC on north and wanted it to snow, I'd be pretty psyched. Heck, I'm in south central PA and feel I'll have a shot too.

Because it's slower, it's a little harder to compare apples to apples. On a positive note, Ukie ensembles have the best snowfall yet. Remember folks, ensembles are always lighter, so this ain't bad. Also, below is a link to slp at 162 hrs. Not bad either. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2024123018&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Figure this out...18z Euro with a stronger vort but 18z Eps weaker than 12z run.

I don't like seeing it slow down. I think we get the best outcome smashing the s/w into the cold as fast as possible giving the best dynamics. Delayed is so often denied. Plus, closed lows (which it is now showing for the first time) west of the Mississippi rarely turn out well in our back yards. We'll see. Plenty of time of modeling to explore even more bad options. Lol

I don't know what to root for with this one as I could see a fail in any direction.

18z Euro coming out now. It goes out 144hrs, so we should have a decent idea whether it's holding serve.

Don't tell me how to live my life! j/k

Upgrade this year that was sorely needed after the alleged 2018 "upgrade."