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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010100&fh=138&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps
  2. mitchnick
    Meanwhile, Canadian looking good
  3. mitchnick
    I wonder if Randy knows what just happened?
  4. mitchnick
    We're going to need to see your documents before we can let you back in the building Sir.
  5. mitchnick
    Going to transfer after 141hrs
  6. mitchnick
    Sleet past Roanoke almost to Lynchburg. That's a good silign.
  7. mitchnick
    At 126hrs, vort is stronger and slightly west of 18z. We like that.
  8. mitchnick
    I think it comes further north again but can't say how much.
  9. mitchnick
    Both Icon and Gfs seem to have a stronger ridge along the Continental Divide so they are forced to head south down the coast to 4 corners before moving east.
  10. mitchnick
    Gfs is taking near identical route as Icon with s/w .
  11. mitchnick
    Only a very small area that's currently unfrozen though.
  12. mitchnick
    Nah, let's just go to bed and pretend we won.
  13. mitchnick
    We're getting the band back together!
  14. mitchnick
    Yep. Slower worked.
  15. mitchnick
    Icon much slower moving east. That may be a viable option to get that 50/50 to move, though delays rarely work either. Lol
  16. mitchnick
    Our short wave hits the Pacific NW coast at 6z Saturday per most modeling. So by Saturday 12z or Sunday 0z, runs should be real close to being locked in one way or the other.
  17. mitchnick
    I think we have a day and a half, maybe 2. Once we're within 3 days, a VA or NC storm will not budge. Now a MA storm is different. All NE needs is 12-18 hours like March 2001.
  18. mitchnick
    Fwiw, new Cansips has January frigid, of course, and February and March slightly AN temps. January precip is BN, February is Normal, and March N/slightly AN. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025010100&fh=0
  19. mitchnick
    @Heisy Are you still on Tom's site or somewhere else? I've checked the Philly forum here, but you never post there. Does Tom's site still require an app? Let me know! Thanks
  20. mitchnick
    @GaWx New Cansips run out this evening Larry maintains what looks to be a weak/mod Modoki Niño next year. The link below is for the month of 12/25, but it appears the Niño may peak in November. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=T850a&runtime=2025010100&fh=11
  21. mitchnick
    Ukie snowfall mean. Both 18z (top) and 12z (bottom) include Friday, which isn't much, but I put a link to the 18z Friday totals. My guess is snow is higher on 18z due to losing some northern outliers that had some rain, but that's a wag. P.s. Ukie goes out to 198hrs, so that could explain higher totals than Eps, or it's timing issues. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024123118&fh=90&r=us_state_de_md&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  22. mitchnick
    You'll have to ask them. I don't dance so well! Honestly, I don't know and neither do the models at this point.
  23. mitchnick
    Not true. Many places in the DC/MD & Southern PA jump into 1 shade higher. Plus, as I showed, there's more to come. Here's 24 hr totals that only include Monday event. 18z on top.
  24. mitchnick
    Just to visualize what is holding our fate, it's that spaghetti ball spinning Northeast of Maine. It's the last 4 models runs. It's an absolute crapshoot with every model run. It'll be Sunday 0z before there's any true confidence.
  25. mitchnick
    Awww shucks...
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