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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Probably because Euro weeklies are AN precip for weeks 5 and 6 from Mid Atlantic thru NE with normal temps week 5 and slightly AN week 6. Week 4 has normal precip with BN temps which Probably add to the totals.
  2. mitchnick
    Weeklies can-kicked any AN temps, and modestly so, to only week 6. Week 5 is now normal in the east. Weeks 5 and 6 continue to be AN with precip along the east coast from the Mid Atlantic thru NE.
  3. mitchnick
    12z Ukie ensembles (top) and Gem ensembles no longer favor southern areas over northern as prior runs.
  4. mitchnick
    Experience of being in the bullseye 5-7 days out only to get rain/mix with snow to my north.
  5. mitchnick
    It's gunna get ugly.
  6. mitchnick
    Anyone with the Eps snowfall yet? Tia
  7. mitchnick
    Confluence at day 6 is over progged 90% of the time it seems. I'll be surprised if it's that strong on models come the weekend. Plus, let's see what the Eps have to say.
  8. mitchnick
    Euro south this run. Not great for PA.
  9. mitchnick
    They're coming out on Pivotal, but they follow the operational. Drops 1" thru 234 hrs. Lol https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024123112&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  10. mitchnick
  11. mitchnick
    Sorry Bliz
  12. mitchnick
    Remember the Aviation model that was before the MRF. Only went out to 120 hrs, I think.
  13. mitchnick
    It did push further north than I expected. Plenty of time. We don't want too many models going to our south.
  14. mitchnick
    Ukie big hit
  15. mitchnick
    Recent runs of the Cfs get better with AN precip along the east coast!
  16. mitchnick
  17. mitchnick
    If we had a true stj assisting it, 2 famous events that had a similar east-west stripe of moisture hitting a wall of arctic cold come to mind.
  18. mitchnick
    For those believing the Cfs monthly forecasts only have value at the beginning of the forecast month, here's its January forecast.
  19. mitchnick
    You can get the daily 0z and 12z Cfs forecasts here for free if interested: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2024123100&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Last night's run has major cold returning 2/1, but like we all know, it could easily change at 12z as prior runs had it warm. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2024123100&fh=768&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  20. mitchnick
    It's going to drop a lot of snow somewhere near us and I think you and I are finally in a decent spot, at least that's how it looks right now.
  21. mitchnick
    It is a tightrope. Based on 0z and 6z, it sure looks like there will be an east-west stripe of over a foot. Exactly where that will be is a moving target unless Superstorm's northern stream possibility comes to fruition.
  22. mitchnick
    I was just looking at the 5H vort. It's a touch further south at 6z than 0z, but is stronger with 2 closed isobars instead of only 1. This would definitely come north of 0z if it was to play out.
  23. mitchnick
    Slp on 6z is further north than 0z by 50-75 miles +/- and is 4mb lower than 0z.
  24. mitchnick
    Ukie ensembles. They got better too and look similar to Eps.
  25. mitchnick
    Eps for Monday only.
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