Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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The change was the wave dropping down from the northern steam, it got stuck out west. Seems a lot of waves keep doing that lately lol… Going to bed myself too, i want 500 posts .
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So, if you go back to older runs the second potential event we were tracking is at 180 hrs+. That 18z euro changed things up dramatically with strengthening that wave. I mean maybe that happens. I was more inclined to hope for more energy to be dumped out west and have the N stream come down and phase with it. I’m not in love with the spacing with that shortwave at 144 hours, but who knows?! Like Psu said this pattern may be tough for models to gauge. .
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It’s odd it’s actually not the same time frame we’ve been tracking for round 2 .
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Difference between GFS, CMC, and Euro AI at 90 hours To give you an idea of what differences each model has. 18z rgem was in the euro Ai camp fwiw .
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The 18z rgem looks like the Euro AI at 84 hours. Models having issues parsing the shortwave on its speed and strength as it rounds the base. Money is on the euro Ai .
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Funny story, like 5 days before eagles nfc championship vs falcons I told my dad there was a potential snowstorm for the game. I was in met. school at the time. My pop called WIP and told them, hour later Hurricane Schwartz got on the air and told them about the threat lol…. Of course it did snow, but the night before the game .
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It’s been doing this all winter. It seems to have a lockdown range where it really only makes minor adjustments. I’d love to see the H5 verification charts I bet it’s #1 or close to it .
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Great point, the shortwave is sort of embedded in the flow. Makes sense lower resolution ensembles may have issues with it .
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The EPS and CMC ensembles for Sunday are ridiculously different for this time range. EPS is kind of concerning being so dry .
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At 168 hours I really thought the OP euro was going to phase the left over S stream energy and the N stream and bring a storm up the coast, but the flow was a bit progressive i suppose. The storm on the GFS was induced by the N stream diving down since there was no left over S energy. Long way to go to figure that one out. .
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Off topic, if you want some entertainment use the way back machine and you can read some posts from the old days lol .
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Woof .
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Have eagles ever had a playoff snow game? I remember the falcons nfc chip game was day after event… .
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Give me a euro Ai sneak peek when it comes out .
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Yep it was nice improvement. The northern stream piece plays a role though, that’s at the top of ridge out west at 144, looks a touch weaker, but we’ll see what happens. Have a good feeling about 00z runs .
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Except it looks really good for storm 2. Obviously ends at 144, but…more energy left over vs 12z out west .
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I’m late to the party today but I definitely am happy to see the northern stream dive in on that 12z euro run. .
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That’s the 12z euro AI? Does it give us any precip from the second event? .
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At 18z there GFS sped the wave up and the Euro slowed it down, GFS is likely wrong as usual .
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20th, same wave the euro and GFS have .
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Yea that’s a similar progression to the GFS/euro camp. Probably see the cmc change tonight .
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It’s the same one the OP GFS had that gave us the modest event on 20th. Looks decent .
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Liking the GEFS at 129 hours, good separation and the main wave looks stronger .
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The 12z GFS and 6z euro are almost identical at 144 hours so I would personally put that cmc solution directly in the trash. .
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Yes but it’s a different progression where the energy gets stuck out west. It’s the same wave, but a couple days later .
