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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. rjvanals
    RGEM is juiced up compared to 18Z
  2. rjvanals
    We should probably avoid spiking the football before the goaline….
  3. rjvanals
  4. rjvanals
    18z Euro looks like a hold vs 12z
  5. rjvanals
    RGEM is better than 6z
  6. rjvanals
    Yeah drier than 12z and in decent agreement w the GFS
  7. rjvanals
    12/11 1.6” 1/16 4.8” Total: 6.4”
  8. rjvanals
    Glad you got on the board after all the solid analysis you contribute
  9. rjvanals
    Canadian would be acceptable
  10. rjvanals
    Kept seeing that the models kept moving the center of the low ~75 miles each run so not surprised (probably won’t help us)
  11. rjvanals
    18z GEFS is a down tick for snow in the Monday/Tuesday period
  12. rjvanals
    Looking at the MD traffic cams it doesn't look like a "real" storm until you get to Hagerstown. The Whitetail webcams look pretty awesome!
  13. rjvanals
    What’s disappointing is we had ~4 hours this morning w a good enough column but no precip ☹️
  14. rjvanals
    We’ve had some flurries off and on here but needed rates and haven’t had them
  15. rjvanals
    3K is a definite improvement by holding back the torch at 850 for a few more hours
  16. rjvanals
    That’s a depressing sight showing the lack of real January cold across the east
  17. rjvanals
    We're going to have trouble getting better trends if the low goes over Kent Island like the Euro is showing (40 mile swing from its 6z run)
  18. rjvanals
    The GFS unfortunately has picked up a stronger southerly wind at 850 across the metro the 3k NAM was showing earlier. Hope its wrong
  19. rjvanals
    The 18z Euro tries to do this at hr 54 but has a tiny warm layer just above 850 that screws it up
  20. rjvanals
    NAM would probably break DCA inch streak at least
  21. rjvanals
    Euro was the first to pick up on the mid level warmth issue on its Monday night run. The best runs for the storm showed a Saturday night into Sunday storm w a different setup vs the Saturday storm we have now so who knows if that initial scenario would’ve worked.
  22. rjvanals
    The surface has been holding pretty steady but the 850 level in particular has been degrading across the past few model cycles to a razors edge at this point
  23. rjvanals
    12z 3k NAM looks pretty similar to the 12/16/20 storm with a heavy burst of snow initially across the metro area then watched the CC line move steadily NW; wasn't a bad storm here w around 3 inches and dumped ~6 inches in Frederick https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/17/snow-ice-dc-md-va/
  24. rjvanals
    In that storm I went from my parents house in Potomac where we had a plowable snow to Comet Ping Pong in NW where it wasn't much more than a cartopper. 2-17-18 was another one w a sharp gradient from downtown to western suburbs as well.
  25. rjvanals
    Pretty similar idea to the GFS just juiced up a bit
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