rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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Sleet is kinda fun and sticks around. Freezing Rain sucks
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GFS w snow next Monday
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One thing I’ve noticed anecdotally is winters where Syracuse has a lot of early snow compared to Buffalo turn out to be decent in the DMV due to a predominantly NW flow that hits Syracuse while building up a snowpack in Canada vs winters that dump on Buffalo have a SW flow and have a ice free Lake Erie. So far this winter Syracuse has 39” while Buffalo has 17” which if my theory is correct is a good sign for the rest of our winter. https://goldensnowball.com
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Mesos did a great job delaying the cold air at the surface which was one of the limiting factors (and poor snow growth at least imby). 1 more hour of snow below freezing everyone would’ve been happy
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1.3” here. Lost about 90 minutes of qpf due to warm surface temps and then had poor snow growth the rest of the storm
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Not surprised w the graupel type snow I’m seeing
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There’s gotta be some thin warm layer above the surface as I’m getting styrofoam or graupel type snowflakes no dendrites
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Forecasts are going to bust once again around the beltway since everyone ignored what all the models were showing was a problem w surface temps
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So frustrating to be wasting qpf in a short duration “storm” since we can’t get below freezing
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Got light snow here but of course we can't get below freezing still 34
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Light rain 37
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NAMs are a step back and suggest surface temps could be a issue inside the beltway
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Closest light snow currently looks to be at Liberty Mtn just across the PA border
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Both the Euro and GFS do suggest we might have the potential for light snow Monday afternoon especially north of I 70
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I remember that one and could see that as a scenario where this could bust.
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This place will be hopping on Sunday once we whiff and Philly and NYC score
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Euro Weeklies unfortunately don’t look great today
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We have 2 things that have to go nearly perfectly with this storm: 1. The storm needs to develop in time and not shift north 2. We have marginal surface temps with little margin for error Hopefully we get lucky but its thread the needle
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Euro doesn’t have enough spacing between the two weak systems and both fail
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12z runs are pretty depressing today
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Sun poking through w light snow in Potomac
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1.3” in Potomac as the snow tapers off
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Light snow but with poor snow growth
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Very light snow in Potomac w small flakes
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Snowing at Wintergreen based on webcams
