frostfern

Look at the long range. Boring. No heat, no thunder chances, no nothing.

I see a lot of miss south stank for MBY even if the pattern improves marginally. El Nino is such a b****. Never in my life has a summer been as boring as this one. Not even any heat. Just cool dry and boring. The new San Diego.

GFS is wrapping some precip farther west now. Any ensemble support? Having flashbacks of winter now. Sad times, but rain is rain.

I remember April 2012 being a bit cooler and wetter after the Morch. May was very warm, but with hit-miss rains around. Even June had chances of storms, they were just spotty and didn’t keep up with the evap rates when it started getting hot. July got very dry due to being very hot with high evaporation and only spotty rains. It wasn’t constant blocking and dry back-door fronts like this year.

The extreme heat hasn’t happened yet, but its already off to a much dryer start than 2012. April/May 2012 were normal, and June/July were hot but hit/miss storms were around many days despite not everyone seeing a lot of rain. This is looking more and more like 1988. 1988 was a front-loaded drought starting in may. There was even the persistent New England cutoff much of June until the heat suddenly expanded east in July. If there is no major pattern change by the middle of June we are in 1988 territory precip-wise.

Florida has guaranteed t-storms. This is California sunshine.

Euro is a dry back-to-back back-door cold front fest regularly re-enforced New England troughing straight into the middle of June gigantic turd. If it's going to drought might as well be hot. This "cool" dry shit is the absolute most boring pattern ever. Great Lakes = New Atacama Desert.

I heard soft rumble thunder and didn’t believe it because almost every direction out the window looked clear. There’s a tiny cell moving in from the SE. Might be the last rain I see for the next week though. Damn thing is going to miss just west though. Ugh.

90 here too. Some distant towering cumulous, but fat chance of anything ever maturing over MBY.

Really annoying the end of the heat looks to be another backdoor cold front with the ridge retrograding west. Fat chance of rain with that kind of pattern constantly repeating. Boredom-fest + drought continues into June. Probably just going to stop posting. Really sad that mild winter + boring spring/summer is the new normal for Michigan in a warming climate. Ugh.

The high plains had activity for him. No tornadoes, but there has been scattered high-based supercell action most days. Only the midwest has been totally dead.

The grass got started early due to warmth in the 1st half of April, so its going dormant fast now with no rain.

Black hole for here.

What do you know. The next system is another boring backdoor cold front. Trough-east ridge-west + boring and dry NW flow might be a lock for the whole goddamn summer.

No organized rain producer anywhere in the long range. Anything that does fall is scattered airmass t-storms late in the period i.e some places could have zero rain due to hit-miss pattern.

40 degree low-to-high spread under high pressure ( very little airmass change ) is impressive for this area. Frosty mornings followed by high temps in the 70s is more typical of high desert climates.

East wind must be annoying over there. Crazy high-vs-low spread happening in rural areas here today and tomorrow. Morning frost to mid-70s. Lack of smoke definitely helping.

Climate change.

It's almost a corbon copy of May 2021 with the heat in the west, blocked up jet, and dryness over the Midwest. Really hope June finally turns around like that year.

I just read the AB fires are so bad the bogs are literally burning. Apparently lowland boreal forest in northern Alberta has a lot of thick peat mats. Without a soaking rain that stuff could take months to fully burn. Looks like the smoke is not going away any time soon.

A little on the cool side, but seeing real blue sky again is nice. The rain yesterday mostly skipped over me though.

The problem is you speak like corn is the reason tornado alley is centered is centered on the plains and MS valley and not New England. I’m not working due to chrinic illness but I have a meteorology / atmos-sci degree. I know the Rock Mountains play a bigger role than you think. I mean, Oklahoma has so much more f*ing corn compared to Indiana in April. Also why are you even talking about summer convection climatology and in the same breath discrediting a perceived decrease in *SPRING* thunderstorms in recent years in Michigan. The two are different topics. Summer 2021 was more stormy than average here.

I experienced really bad smoke in Colorado in 2021. It was all from California fires, but somehow a cold front stalled out against the Front Range caused it to mix down and bank up against the mountains. It was so thick there were no shadows even with no clouds present. The smoke was so strong it made me cough. Its not quite that bad now here, but still the worst I’ve ever experienced in Michigan from a distant smoke source. It seems like the ignition fuel for these fires is mostly dormant brush and grass (though the flames obviously do spread to lowland forest canopies wherever they get hot enough). Its not the normal conifer-fueled mountain fires you get from late summer into fall. This is something different.

Sorry didn’t get pictures. Its cloudy as well as smokey now. Its mixing down. Smells like a campfire.

Would really like to see actual blue sky instead of this wretched smoke. It's thicker than most CS debris days.