weathafella

Great presentation Ryan. If anything my advice would be to use a virtual background.

Gfs AI was 2 inches to the pike region.

Yes gfs coming in decent.

Do we have worthwhile local mets anymore?

Actually it’s a 5 day anomaly so probably 34/20 right at the coast.

Gfs looks decent to me

You don’t look it!

Recalculating…40?

Qpf field looks like dogshit at 42.

I’m 79 and counting. I’m surmising you are 42ish

Our man! Part of the crew kicked into the back room at JJ Foleys in 2009.

My understanding is the deep learn aspect more or less upgrades the AI models continuously. Maybe if someone knows differently my understanding can be improved. I think in a fairly short time the human involvement will need to evolve to understand tinier nuances to tweak forecasting.

Honestly if that actually turns out to be the case Skynet should do better in subsequent similar setups.

Skynet hopefully is right. Solid advisory event for most of sne.

It was epic! I was in the 8th grade in NNJ and woke up Sunday 12/11 with “provisional heavy snow warning”. That was the precursor to today’s winter storm watch. But more importantly after a mega torch in the early days of December culminating in temperatures near 70 on 12/4. It was in the mid 40s on the 10th so imagine my surprise (and joy) to awaken to high clouds and 25. My mother made me sweep the garage that morning and for once I happily complied as I warded off the oak leaves blowing into the north facing garage. By the time I was done the temperature dropped into the low 20s. My Giants were playing Washington in DC and at the start of the broadcast the announcer exclaimed “we’re having a blizzard!” I remember one TD pass from YA Tittle to Del Shofner with Shofner ending up in a snow bank. It started snowing around 3pm and it was fairly light for the first 6 hours and I was starting to lose hope. Finally it started picking up and by time I fell asleep it was snowing pretty hard. I woke up at 5AM Monday and it was raging. Snow tapered off close to Noon. Temperatures during the meat of the storm were near 10. The storm paralyzed the megopolis. It was the first of 3 big ones that winter. The other 2 were the JFK inaugural storm and the widespread 2 footer February 3-4. The February storm was the pattern changer and winter was never the same that year but what a 2 month run!

I’m surprisingly enjoying the cold. It feels like a throwback to my youth including waiting for the snow. We’re near the 65 year anniversary of one of the great 20th century blizzards that buried Virginia to Maine.

lol…skynet with the Christmas Eve sizable snowstorm.

So gfs AI looks ok for a light fairy widespread event. CMC looks ok.

I thought cmc was 2-4 with decent stats look.

Gfs AI looks ok for a light accumulating event.

AI and op euro with a widespread 1-3. Interesting AI how to keep refreshing it while pushing the grinch away.

I know and that’s why today is a critical moment for guidance.

When has ICON ever been a “help”? I’m putting 70% weight on the AI models for this.

I plan to arrive close to 4. Looking forward to seeing everyone! I hearTip is bringing a Hadley cell for each attendee.

Ignoring all the AI models?