weathafella

You don’t look it!

Recalculating…40?

Qpf field looks like dogshit at 42.

I’m 79 and counting. I’m surmising you are 42ish

Our man! Part of the crew kicked into the back room at JJ Foleys in 2009.

My understanding is the deep learn aspect more or less upgrades the AI models continuously. Maybe if someone knows differently my understanding can be improved. I think in a fairly short time the human involvement will need to evolve to understand tinier nuances to tweak forecasting.

Honestly if that actually turns out to be the case Skynet should do better in subsequent similar setups.

Skynet hopefully is right. Solid advisory event for most of sne.

It was epic! I was in the 8th grade in NNJ and woke up Sunday 12/11 with “provisional heavy snow warning”. That was the precursor to today’s winter storm watch. But more importantly after a mega torch in the early days of December culminating in temperatures near 70 on 12/4. It was in the mid 40s on the 10th so imagine my surprise (and joy) to awaken to high clouds and 25. My mother made me sweep the garage that morning and for once I happily complied as I warded off the oak leaves blowing into the north facing garage. By the time I was done the temperature dropped into the low 20s. My Giants were playing Washington in DC and at the start of the broadcast the announcer exclaimed “we’re having a blizzard!” I remember one TD pass from YA Tittle to Del Shofner with Shofner ending up in a snow bank. It started snowing around 3pm and it was fairly light for the first 6 hours and I was starting to lose hope. Finally it started picking up and by time I fell asleep it was snowing pretty hard. I woke up at 5AM Monday and it was raging. Snow tapered off close to Noon. Temperatures during the meat of the storm were near 10. The storm paralyzed the megopolis. It was the first of 3 big ones that winter. The other 2 were the JFK inaugural storm and the widespread 2 footer February 3-4. The February storm was the pattern changer and winter was never the same that year but what a 2 month run!

I’m surprisingly enjoying the cold. It feels like a throwback to my youth including waiting for the snow. We’re near the 65 year anniversary of one of the great 20th century blizzards that buried Virginia to Maine.

lol…skynet with the Christmas Eve sizable snowstorm.

So gfs AI looks ok for a light fairy widespread event. CMC looks ok.

I thought cmc was 2-4 with decent stats look.

Gfs AI looks ok for a light accumulating event.

AI and op euro with a widespread 1-3. Interesting AI how to keep refreshing it while pushing the grinch away.

I know and that’s why today is a critical moment for guidance.

When has ICON ever been a “help”? I’m putting 70% weight on the AI models for this.

I plan to arrive close to 4. Looking forward to seeing everyone! I hearTip is bringing a Hadley cell for each attendee.

Ignoring all the AI models?

I’ve been bullish on this since last night. I went to bed happy last night though not for the reason I’d have felt happy 40 years ago…. Also, I’ve been harping about the AI models and how imho they should be weighed highest. They self upgrade continuously and they’ve been around now long intro be taken quite seriously. Once I saw all the AIs on board I bought in.

Yeah and so far all the JV models agree so one should expect the euro to follow suit. GFS AI actually has a better event but also a step backwards.

Gfs lost any semblance of an event over the weekend.

I wasn’t here in 1989-90-I arrived in July 1991. But 1989 was cold in November and December but fairly dry.

Through 12/8/2025 monthly departures BOS: -7.7 PVD: -7.8 BDL: -8.8 ORH: -8.3

Me too but I wouldn’t huddle at home for it.