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weathafella

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Everything posted by weathafella

  1. weathafella
    So odds are highest in general for January being above average given it is the coldest month of the year climo wise.
  2. weathafella
    Anthony isn’t posting. Nuff said.
  3. weathafella
    Lol…their lifespan was 30 something.
  4. weathafella
    Ok op huggers-today’s euro is snowy for many of us.
  5. weathafella
    Paul, I think your approach narrows the possibilities. I mean isn’t AI inherently “better computing” considering the concept is deep learning? I think AI can be tweaked when we see where it needs to be quickly. As a crude example, my phone quickly learns how I use “muthufukka”. Phones five years ago took much longer and my next phone should even learn it faster.
  6. weathafella
    Why do you have disdain for AI weather models?
  7. weathafella
    I think there’s opportunity every 3/4 days. Obviously this first one is warm but based on guidance I’m seeing we’ll have lots of chances. We should be a lot more active and the hope is the boundary is favorable for us. It will be sometimes but we obviously are playing with fire a lot.
  8. weathafella
    Inverted flake light snow now.
  9. weathafella
    The ensembles in the 8-15 range are much more favorable vs the ops. It seems silly get tall wrapped up in op forecasts in a difficult pattern on clown range.
  10. weathafella
    Moving the goalposts I see. Hard to do with the kind they use now…. 100% knew the details of this disappearing by later this week. Amount’s through 12/25 are still debatable but you must have a joyless life if you can’t appreciate the beauty of a little snow we have today.
  11. weathafella
    Quite beautiful looking at the trees from my favorite chair. About an inch with light snow falling. https://imgur.com/a/PIoLL5v
  12. weathafella
    Not really. If aloft is 925 maybe zr but if it’s 850 it’s likely sleet. Kind of reminds me of the gtg at Clarkes Boston a week before Christmas in 2017. Guidance universally had a huge torch starting in 5 days. Scooter and Will pulled up the 84 hour NAM which indicated the CAD signals. Got cut off at the pass with some ice and snow followed by deep cold for a few weeks.
  13. weathafella
    Great presentation Ryan. If anything my advice would be to use a virtual background.
  14. weathafella
    Gfs AI was 2 inches to the pike region.
  15. weathafella
    Yes gfs coming in decent.
  16. weathafella
    Do we have worthwhile local mets anymore?
  17. weathafella
    Actually it’s a 5 day anomaly so probably 34/20 right at the coast.
  18. weathafella
    Gfs looks decent to me
  19. weathafella
    You don’t look it!
  20. weathafella
    Recalculating…40?
  21. weathafella
    Qpf field looks like dogshit at 42.
  22. weathafella
    I’m 79 and counting. I’m surmising you are 42ish
  23. weathafella
    Our man! Part of the crew kicked into the back room at JJ Foleys in 2009.
  24. weathafella
    My understanding is the deep learn aspect more or less upgrades the AI models continuously. Maybe if someone knows differently my understanding can be improved. I think in a fairly short time the human involvement will need to evolve to understand tinier nuances to tweak forecasting.
  25. weathafella
    Honestly if that actually turns out to be the case Skynet should do better in subsequent similar setups.
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