weathafella

lol…skynet with the Christmas Eve sizable snowstorm.

So gfs AI looks ok for a light fairy widespread event. CMC looks ok.

I thought cmc was 2-4 with decent stats look.

Gfs AI looks ok for a light accumulating event.

AI and op euro with a widespread 1-3. Interesting AI how to keep refreshing it while pushing the grinch away.

I know and that’s why today is a critical moment for guidance.

When has ICON ever been a “help”? I’m putting 70% weight on the AI models for this.

I plan to arrive close to 4. Looking forward to seeing everyone! I hearTip is bringing a Hadley cell for each attendee.

Ignoring all the AI models?

I’ve been bullish on this since last night. I went to bed happy last night though not for the reason I’d have felt happy 40 years ago…. Also, I’ve been harping about the AI models and how imho they should be weighed highest. They self upgrade continuously and they’ve been around now long intro be taken quite seriously. Once I saw all the AIs on board I bought in.

Yeah and so far all the JV models agree so one should expect the euro to follow suit. GFS AI actually has a better event but also a step backwards.

Gfs lost any semblance of an event over the weekend.

I wasn’t here in 1989-90-I arrived in July 1991. But 1989 was cold in November and December but fairly dry.

Through 12/8/2025 monthly departures BOS: -7.7 PVD: -7.8 BDL: -8.8 ORH: -8.3

Me too but I wouldn’t huddle at home for it.

Dinkleshit actually….2-5 gives warnings there. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1013 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 VAZ060-061-066>069-079>083-513>516-082300- /O.CON.KAKQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-251208T2300Z/ Prince Edward-Cumberland-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan- Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-New Kent-Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- 1013 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, and south central Virginia. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 for road information.

Yeah as much as some of us carp, I’m thankful for my incredible privilege in so many ways. But here we talk snow so why not complain…lol?

Look out your window. What is different for you vs many of us?

We’re getting so badly skunked lately. It was so obvious to me driving from Chicago home Wednesday and Thursday. Snow otg with good coverage for 95+% of the trip. Hit bare ground inside 495.

Yeah Chicago is having a really nice start but their winters of late have been abysmal. I’m starting to weigh the AI versions higher than the regular versions. The fact that AI more or less is a continuous upgrade by machine learning. I think we’ve already seen much better performance vs the early days of the AI models.

It was a nice snow burst whitening the ground earlier but now a memory.

I guess we should be patient. This is kind of similar to how December played out in 2010 before Boxing Day delivered for many of us.

Skynet agrees and both include most of Massachusetts as well. Sky is more areal coverage. I think an inch on Saturday is returning.

I think I speak for most when I say it’s depressing to have favorable snow guidance with the next run pulling the rug. I mean it’s cold so we can’t say December isn’t acting wintry but bare ground doesn’t feel like winter.

Riding through some heavy squall snow about 20 miles east of Syracuse. West of Rochester to Syracuse was dicey.